It’s easy to believe during this portion of the college football calendar. Those 20-plus transfers the coaching staff added in January have made a seamless transition and patched up the holes on the roster. The new defensive coordinator installed a simpler scheme, and the unit is playing faster. The QB is experienced and will definitely take his game to another level this year.

No program has played a game yet — therefore, no flaw has been exposed. So it’s not too difficult to build a narrative about how things will be better. With that in mind, here’s a look at College Football Playoff hopefuls and what they’ve been selling this offseason. It’s entirely up to you whether to believe in these teams.

Note: This list includes programs that did not reach the Playoff last season.

BYU’s breakthrough is coming

The Cougars invested to keep coach Kalani Sitake after he talked to Penn State about its head coaching job, and after going 23-4 the past two seasons, this is the year BYU breaks through, wins the Big 12 and reaches the College Football Playoff.

Second-year starting quarterback Bear Bachmeier arrived on campus last June after transferring from Stanford. He threw for 3,033 yards, rushed for 527 and led the Cougars to 12 wins. Now he has a full season of starting experience and a full spring practice under his belt, so he’ll be better. The Cougars also return reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year LJ Martin, who rushed for 1,305 yards and 12 scores a year ago.

The defense, which ranked 19th in scoring last year, lost coordinator Jay Hill to Michigan, but the unit returns a good amount of experience. The Cougars also added first-team All-ACC linebacker Cade Uluave from Cal after he notched 100 tackles, including 12 TFLs, in 2025.

And keep the schedule in mind. There’s a midseason date with Notre Dame (at home), but the conference slate sets up well. There are road dates against TCU and Utah, but BYU doesn’t play Texas Tech or Houston — two of the other Big 12 title contenders.

Michigan has the talent — and now the coaching — for a Playoff trip

The Wolverines won nine games in 2025 and remained in the Playoff hunt until the final week of the regular season — and that was with a mess of a coaching situation. Imagine how good they’ll be now that there won’t be a distracted head coach.

Offensive coordinator Jason Beck followed Kyle Whittingham from Utah, and that should help unlock Bryce Underwood’s five-star potential. Jordan Marshall (932 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2025) and five-star true freshman Savion Hiter should form a talented running back duo. Andrew Marsh is a standout at receiver. Jim Harding is one of the best offensive line coaches in the country and he takes over an experienced unit.

The defense loses some key contributors but will be led by Jay Hill, a well-respected coordinator, and added talented Utah transfers Smith Snowden (defensive back) and John Henry Daley (defensive lineman).

The schedule is grueling, with games against four programs that reached the Playoff in 2025 — Oklahoma, Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State — but the Sooners and Hoosiers have to come to Ann Arbor. With the talent and coaching staff, there is a path to 10-2, and that would put the Wolverines squarely in the mix for a CFP bid.

Whittingham, with more talent at his disposal, should be dangerous.

Houston is ready to challenge for a Big 12 title

Willie Fritz was going to get things going at Houston at some point, but it felt like the Cougars were ahead of schedule when they won 10 games last year. They should be even better this season.

Continuity helps Houston’s cause. Both coordinators return, as does quarterback Conner Weigman, who provides a steady veteran presence at the sport’s most important position. Weigman is also a plus in the run game, gaining 700 yards and scoring 11 touchdowns on the ground last year. First-team All-Big 12 receiver Amare Thomas (67 receptions, 966 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2025) is the No. 1 target in the passing game, and at running back, Oregon transfer Makhi Hughes could revive his career under Fritz, whom he played for at Tulane.

All-Big-12 defensive back Will James is one of several experienced contributors returning on defense.

The schedule isn’t too daunting, either. There is a road game at Texas Tech on Sept. 18, but Houston doesn’t face BYU, Arizona or TCU. There are road games at Kansas State and Utah, but both of those programs will be under first-year head coaches. The path exists for a Big 12 title game appearance.

Boise State’s Playoff pedigree puts them atop the G6 hierarchy

Look across the Group of 6 landscape. Tulane and James Madison reached the College Football Playoff last season but have both lost their head coaches, starting quarterbacks and several other key contributors. Memphis and South Florida are also transitioning to new head coaches. So there’s a lot of upheaval at the top of the G6, particularly in the American Conference.

But Boise State is entering its third full season with the same starting quarterback (Maddux Madsen) and head coach (Spencer Danielson), a tandem that has won a bunch of games together and which reached the CFP in 2024. That will place the Broncos at the forefront of the G6 Playoff race, and they’ll certainly enter the season as the team to beat in the new-look Pac-12.

Boise State will open the season as a significant underdog when it plays Oregon in Eugene, but there’s an opportunity to gain a signature win against Memphis at home on Sept. 12. There are some other challenges on the schedule, such as a road date at Fresno State in October, but nothing insurmountable.

And while there are some question marks on the roster, running backs Dylan Riley (1,125 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2025) and Sire Gaines (811 yards, 11 touchdowns) are back as the focal points of the offense, and productive pass rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan is back on defense.

LSU won the offseason, and it’ll pay dividends this fall

The Tigers’ roster and coaching staff are too expensive to fail. LSU had the No. 1 class in The Athletic’s transfer portal rankings after splurging on high-end talent like quarterback Sam Leavitt (Arizona State), offensive lineman Jordan Seaton (Colorado) and edge Princewill Umanmielen (Ole Miss), three critical pieces of a nearly 40-member class.

LSU also spent heavily to hire Lane Kiffin and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. and to retain defensive coordinator Blake Baker. Those are three top-notch coaches leading the way.

There’s a lot of roster turnover and the team will have to mesh, but Kiffin might’ve handled that better than any other coach in the country at Ole Miss over the past few seasons.

While LSU does have to make trips to two of Kiffin’s old stops this season — Ole Miss on Sept. 19 and Tennessee on Nov. 21 — Texas A&M, Alabama and Texas all come to Baton Rouge.

Everything lines up pretty well for a potential Playoff trip.

Notre Dame has everything it needs to win it all

The Fighting Irish won 10 consecutive games — all by double digits — to end last season but were left out of the Playoff. That exclusion will spark this year’s revenge tour.

Running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price were the heartbeat of last year’s team, and they’re both gone, but there’s still so much to like about Notre Dame. Marcus Freeman and both coordinators provide stability at the top.

CJ Carr should take a leap and become one of the best quarterbacks in the country. The Fighting Irish are strong on both lines, and there’s a lot of talent at the skill spots both offensively and defensively, especially in a secondary led by corner Leonard Moore.

Notre Dame will likely be favored in every game, including a road game at BYU and home games against Miami and SMU. It would be surprising if this team lost more than one game. A Playoff trip should be a layup.

SMU is set up perfectly in the ACC

It’s not too difficult to buy into a quarterback/head coach combo like QB Kevin Jennings and coach Rhett Lashlee.

SMU lost a lot on both sides of the ball, but the program has been remarkably consistent the past few years. That counts for something in a league where several other programs have gone through some ups and downs. After narrowly missing out on the conference title game and putting itself in position for another Playoff bid last year, SMU should be one of the top teams in the ACC this fall.

The schedule is also favorable. The Mustangs have to visit Louisville, but they don’t play Miami — the overwhelming ACC favorite — or Clemson.

Texas’ talent is too overwhelming

Though last season was a disappointment, Texas came just one win away from a Playoff appearance. The roster was good in 2025, but the Longhorns upgraded at several key spots with receiver Cam Coleman (Auburn), running backs Hollywood Smothers (NC State) and Raleek Brown (Arizona State), offensive lineman Melvin Siani (Wake Forest) and linebacker Rasheem Biles (Pitt).

Quarterback Arch Manning progressed last season and will be helped by an upgraded supporting cast. The defense brings back star edge rusher Colin Simmons and is expected to be one of the best units in college football under new coordinator Will Muschamp.

The schedule is daunting. There’s a nonconference game against Ohio State, the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma and dates with Ole Miss, at LSU and at Texas A&M. But that won’t change expectations. There’s so much talent on the roster that reaching the Playoff won’t be good enough — making a deep postseason run is the clear requirement.

USC is poised to make its first CFP appearance

Lincoln Riley, in Year 5, has finally built a roster that is ready for the Playoff. This is Riley’s third season with quarterback Jayden Maiava, who should take another leap after making considerable progress in his first year as the full-time starter.

The offensive line is deep and experienced, even with the loss of center Kilian O’Connor to a season-ending injury. There’s young talent at receiver, and King Miller and Waymond Jordan form a very good 1-2 punch at running back.

There are plenty of veterans on defense, and Iowa State transfer Jontez Williams gives the corner group a boost. The defense will be led by one of the best defensive coaches in the sport’s recent history — former TCU coach Gary Patterson, who will be working with a different caliber of player than he did with the Horned Frogs.

The schedule is difficult and includes games against preseason top-25 teams Oregon, Washington, Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana. But this is the most talented roster that Riley has had at USC, and the Trojans will be in position to get over the hump and into the Playoff for the first time.

This article originally appeared in The Athletic.