Jared Clawson isn’t sure how much longer his family can keep their nearly 1,500-acre farm afloat.

For the past two years, Jared and his brother Michael have broken even or lost money on their farm in Hyrum, about 10 miles south of Logan, where they grow mainly alfalfa. And that was before global oil and fertilizer prices surged in the past few weeks, he said.

The Clawsons have been facing new strains since the United States and Israel started bombing Iran late last month. The war in the Middle East has closed the Strait of Hormuz, trapping much of the global supply of oil and fertilizer, leading to skyrocketing prices for both.

Diesel prices in Utah have spiked 40% or more this month, and the Clawsons often use around 1,000 gallons a week during peak seasons. Fertilizer prices have gone up 50% to 70% since last year, but the Clawsons caught a break there. The fertilizer supplier whom they’ve loyally patronized for years is keeping their prices steady for now.

The price increases are “exacerbating the financial condition of a lot of farms”, said Ryan Larsen, an agricultural economist with Utah State University. And Utah farmers were already operating without much, if any, extra cash available, experts told The Salt Lake Tribune.

“We were in a very precarious situation,” Larsen said. “We’re in a bad situation now, if these prices continue.”

Farmers are looking at planting crops that use less fertilizer, or skipping fertilizer altogether, while also reducing their trips to transport plants and animals, Utah Farm Bureau President ValJay Rigby said.

“Our farm margins are already really tight, and many farms are underwater, and so we just don’t have the ability to absorb another shock in the system,” he said.

Unless things change in the next few years, Clawson said, he and his brother are “going to be just forced out.”

Animal profits up, but crop losses mount

Farming in Utah generated $2.3 billion in 2022, according to a report from the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute.

Most of that comes from livestock and poultry products, including $427.5 million in cattle sales and $529.7 million in milk. Those numbers have been steadily increasing, and livestock has been largely profitable for Utah farmers over the past three years, according to the Gardner report.

Revenue from crops, though, has been decreasing, largely because the value of those crops is declining – and those farmers have been falling behind for at least the past decade, according to Gardner.

For example, hay – Utah’s most prevalent crop – averaged $294 per ton in 2022, then $222 per ton in 2023, according to USDA data. Because Utah farmers produce hundreds of thousands of tons of hay, the difference in per-ton costs led to a drop of more than $200 million in value.

And though alfalfa and other types of hay don’t use much fertilizer, other crops do – like corn, of which Utah farmers harvested more than 72,000 acres in 2022.

Many farmers were at or below the break-even point before the jump in fertilizer prices, Larsen said, and the increases will push more crops below that level. “They’re going to be losing money,” he said.

They also might simply decide not to plant corn or other crops that use a lot of fertilizer, Rigby with Utah Farm Bureau said.

That’s problematic because Utah farms “already don’t produce enough food in our state for all of our citizens,” he said.

Farmers can’t pass on transportation costs

And it’s more than just fertilizer.

Another big expense for Utah farmers is transportation for their products, Rigby said, and they often don’t have the ability to pass on those costs, even as retail diesel has jumped to $5.25 from $3.66 over the past month. (Some farmers pay lower amounts on diesel due to tax breaks on agricultural uses.)

“For that farmer, that’s coming right at his pocket,” he said.

Even ranchers who had been recouping losses amid high beef prices this year are being squeezed because of diesel, Rigby said, since most cattle must be taken outside Utah for slaughter.

“They’ve got to get on a truck, those calves, to go somewhere,” he said. “They’re not going to go on those trucks for free.”

And sheep farmers who are ready to take lambs to summer ranges are “anticipating a huge cost to transport their flocks,” he said, because that is done largely via trucking now instead of herding.

Tariffs and water shortages increase the pain

Utah farmers have weathered price increases before, Rigby said, but not to this level. They are also dealing with chronic water shortages, as well as the tariffs from President Donald Trump’s administration, which have shaken the markets for certain crops.

Larsen thinks that some farms will go out of business because their profit margins are so narrow and they can’t take on more debt.

But many Utah farmers also raise animals, he said, and that diversification could help if profits from cattle or sheep counter losses from corn, alfalfa or other crops.

Farmers also aren’t discounting aid from Trump’s administration, Rigby said.

“We’re appreciative, we don’t want to be a bunch of whiners,” he said.

The administration in December announced $12 billion in payments through the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Farmer Bridge Assistance Program. The enrollment period started last month and runs through April.

Those payments helped, Rigby said, but weren’t “enough to quite pay my fuel bill before this started.”

Many Utah farmers also don’t qualify for the program because payments are calculated per acre and vary by crop, with the highest amounts going to cotton and rice — crops that are rarely grown in Utah.

Even those who do qualify still face “a generational decline in farm income” amid inflation and dropping crop prices, American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall wrote in a March 9 letter to Trump.

The country could face a shortfall in crops, Duvall added, unless the president uses his authority to “take proactive steps to safeguard fertilizer supply chains and reduce the risk of market disruptions.”