The College Football Playoff expansion debate thus far has focused on increasing access to the field, but the less discussed issue that will play a role in the final decision is, as always, money. How much additional TV money would a 24-team tournament bring, and would it sufficiently offset the money leagues would be giving up from the elimination of conference championship games?
“If we find the value, I think it just changes the tone of the conversations,” Big Ten commissioner and 24-team driver Tony Petitti said at the league’s media days in July.
On Monday, the 10 Football Bowl Subdivision commissioners and Notre Dame’s athletic director will meet to talk specifically about the trade-offs of different formats. But what was originally scheduled to be an in-person gathering in Dallas has been changed to a virtual meeting due to ongoing work on other more pressing issues than the postseason.
Monday’s agenda will mostly focus on the logistics, multiple people said — topics like the calendar, TV broadcast windows for CFP games, the future of Army-Navy in an altered December schedule, the impact of expansion on the regular season, conference championships and health and safety. CFP executive director Rich Clark said the CFP’s media consultants will share research on those topics and potentially share a general range of early TV projections, but not deep specifics. Figuring out when additional games take place, and whether they would go up against NFL broadcasts, impacts their value. No decisions are expected.
“It’s really to answer lingering questions and present some second- and third-order effects,” Clark said.
But the serious money conversation will happen at some point this fall, especially with ESPN’s Dec. 1 deadline for the CFP management committee to notify the network of format changes for 2027. The Big Ten is full speed ahead behind its 24-team model. The SEC still has questions, and some prefer 16. Those two leagues hold control over the format, and beginning this year, they receive nearly 60 percent of CFP revenue, rather than the previous, more equal split.
“We don’t have any idea at this point of the clear media interest in an expanded Playoff,” SEC commissioner Greg Sankey said at his own league’s media days. “We do have an understanding of what happened when we went to 12.”
What happened when the CFP expanded to 12 was that only ESPN put forth a competitive bid for the rights. The CFP spoke to all the major broadcasters and streamers, and at one point its leaders hoped to split the rights among multiple partners like the NFL does with its playoffs. That ultimately didn’t happen. Although the talks lasted past ESPN’s exclusive negotiating window and the CFP contract went to market, ESPN secured the rights through 2031 for around $1.3 billion annually, up from the $608 million it paid to broadcast the four-team format but less than some had projected.
The SEC Championship Game is one of the highest-rated games of the season, and it’s worth upwards of $100 million annually, which the league keeps to itself. The Big Ten title game is similar, though not quite that high, and Petitti said this spring that the loss of all conference championships would cost the leagues a total of more than $200 million. Would ending those games and adding 12 more Playoff games (two of which ESPN would own as part of its current deal) make up for it?
“It’s going to be helpful, but it’s not going to fix athletic department budgets, because it’s only so much inventory,” said Patrick Crakes, a media consultant and former Fox Sports senior vice president. “It’s more money, but it doesn’t solve money problems.”
The good news for the pro-expansion crowd is that Fox has made clear it wants a piece this time around. Fox Sports CEO Eric Shanks has endorsed a 24-team model multiple times over the past year.
“The Fox guys really need a seat at the table on this, because it rounds out their investment big-time,” Crakes said.
Fox currently owns all of the Big Ten’s rights, licensing packages to NBC and CBS, and is the majority owner of Big Ten Network. The league’s last three national championship runs were televised entirely by ESPN, which has no Big Ten regular-season rights. Getting a slice of the CFP would help Fox’s whole package.
“You tell advertisers that if you want to be in our Playoff inventory, you have to take some of the regular season and you sell it as a package,” Crakes said. “(Fox) can use that, and Big Noon will get more exposure in the postseason.”
ESPN’s current CFP deal gives the network exclusive rights to the first negotiation on any potential expansion package, a CFP spokesperson confirmed. ESPN’s lineup of sports right now, including the next Super Bowl, is arguably deeper than ever.
But there are limits. The network licensed two first-round CFP games to TNT Sports the last two years and is expanding that approach to five games on TNT annually for the next three years, including a semifinal — a sign that ESPN saw more value in selling some of its deal than keeping it.
“ESPN has been pretty clear with all of us that they’d like it to stay at 12, maybe 14, but no higher than 16,” said ACC commissioner Jim Phillips, whose league supports the 24-team model.
That’s in part because ESPN owns most of conference championship weekend, holding the rights to the SEC, ACC and Big 12 games, plus some in the Group of 6. Some people in college sports have theorized that ESPN worries a larger CFP could devalue its regular-season games; Sankey has spoken many times about that concern. Crakes doesn’t buy it financially. Even if early CFP games rate lower than conference championship games, there are more games in total.
“(Devaluing) certainly is the case with some sports leagues, but the NFL is (trying) to expand,” he said, adding that people aren’t oversaturated with football yet. “We’re going to get another weekend of the NFL.”
The NFL’s attempt to start negotiations for its next TV deal ahead of schedule could also put the financial squeeze on networks, including CBS and NBC. That has concerned every other sports league as cable subscribers continue to decline. Fox has tried to hold firm, with its CEO saying on a Thursday earnings call that it won’t renegotiate with the NFL until after the 2029 season.
CBS’ parent company Paramount is also in the costly process of trying to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, which may or may not impact its bidding ability. TNT Sports is part of WBD and could merge with CBS Sports if that happens, which would mean one fewer potential bidder.
The streaming side is more difficult to predict. Netflix loves to event-ize one-off sporting events like the NFL on Christmas, the next Women’s World Cup and the MLB Home Run Derby. Amazon Prime Video has Thursday night NFL football. But streaming has not become a replacement for cable, just a place for limited packages.
“When I was advising clients five years ago (about streaming), I’d say you better be careful with expectations,” Crakes said. “Now, you better be really careful.”
In the end, the main factor driving CFP expansion is the access, just as it was last time. Petitti has said repeatedly that because schools are spending tens of millions of dollars on rosters in a way they weren’t just a few years ago, a larger Playoff provides more reward for those investments. It’s why the Big 12 and ACC have thrown support around 24. Petitti, who made the BCS happen and changed MLB’s playoff format in past jobs, has always been obsessed with the logistics of a postseason.
But the money will play a role.
“I don’t want to go backwards, so I’ve got to figure out what kind of trade I’m making,” Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark said. “I know what I have now with our champ game. It’s our biggest tentpole moment of the year, drives a lot of good economics, a lot of value, and we’re gonna have to give that up for something different. I’m very open to it, but I just need to know what that looks like.
“I think the economics are going to also be based on the scheduling and how we manage the schedule. I think we’ll learn more about that later in the summer and heading into the fall, have a better understanding of what decision we have to make or not.”
As college sports leaders continue to look for every dollar they can, additional TV money may be too enticing to pass up if the logistics get settled.
“This is probably the last giant lever to pull,” Crakes said.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.