Is Salt Lake City still in the lead for an MLB expansion team?

In the shadows of three smokestacks on Salt Lake City’s west side, Gail Miller and other Utah leaders planted their ceremonial shovels — and a symbolic flag — in the ground two years ago.

The patch of land along North Temple would one day transform into shops, homes and, if things broke their way, a Major League Baseball ballpark.

“I can’t stop smiling,” Gov. Spencer Cox said then of the prospect of bringing the big leagues to Utah.

In a day, Salt Lake City became a leading candidate for an MLB expansion team. Oddsmakers quickly listed Utah ahead of Oregon and Texas. An ESPN insider called Salt Lake in the west and Nashville in the east “frontrunners” for baseball’s plans to add two new teams by the time MLB commissioner Rob Manfred ends his term in 2028. More recently, the betting group Props.com wrote, “Utah tops the list as the most likely state to secure an MLB expansion team.”

But the fight for a Major League Baseball team is heating up.

Since the Miller-led Big League Utah threw its baseball hat into the ring, the Portland Diamond Project has redoubled its efforts to lure an expansion team to Oregon. Meanwhile, an Austin, Texas, group has entered the fray, pitching the capital city as the prime location for a team in the west.

Is Salt Lake City still the leader in baseball’s clubhouse?

A Diamond in the West

Dale Murphy is all in on Utah now.

The former Atlanta Braves great, who calls the Beehive State his home, has been the face of the Big League Utah Coalition since it was announced in April 2023.

“Portland is where I was born and raised, but this is where we put our roots down after I retired,” Murphy said. “We don’t plan on leaving, and I want to help bring baseball to our backyard. We’re a major league city.”

But the Portland Diamond Project, which Murphy once backed, believes it should be MLB’s top choice for western expansion. And since Murphy’s departure and Utah’s announcement two years ago, the Diamond Project has picked up its pace.

Dating back to 2017, the group has put forth a number of proposals that have largely fizzled out.

But now it appears Portland has its most serious, and promising, pitch to MLB yet.

Earlier this year, the Diamond Project recently signed a sale of agreement for 33 acres on the Willamette River in downtown Portland for a possible stadium site. Renderings were released in March along with a piece of legislation that, if passed, could generate up to $800 million to fund a new ballpark at Zidell Yards.

“Oregon is home to a dedicated fan base and robust sport-fueled economy. We are one of the largest markets with only one ‘big four’ major franchise, and top 10 for World Series ratings,” Diamond Project founder, and former Nike executive, Craig Cheek said in a statement to The Salt Lake Tribune. “Our local and state officials are partnering to bring MLB and a new ballpark to our state. Our effort is rooted in listening to business and community leaders and working together to make Portland better with baseball.”

Backed by members of the state legislature and local business owners, Oregon’s S.B. 10 would capture an income tax on the salaries of MLB players and other high-paid officials in both home and visiting organizations, and divert them back to pay for stadium bonds. Leaders are calling it the “jock tax” and say it would cost most Oregon taxpayers nothing.

“There is absolutely no risk. It doesn’t cost the state a dime,” Oregon Sen. Fred Girod told The Oregonian when the state senate voted in favor of the bill in April.

But other economists have sounded the alarm bell on the idea. Joe Cortright, a prominent economist in Oregon, questioned whether taxing MLB salaries alone would muster $800 million over the next 30 years, as the bill sets out to do. He also pushed back on the idea that the “jock tax” would be free for the public.

“Make no mistake, the money to pay the players and people who work for the organization will come largely from Oregonians,” Cortright testified to state lawmakers last month. “All that professional sports do is to reallocate spending in the economy. They do not increase the total amount of spending. … You are laboring under an illusion, under a delusion, if you believe that all of the money that is forwarded to you from ballplayers is somehow new to the Oregon economy.”

The bill still has to pass the Oregon House, which will vote later this month. Behind the scenes, Portland leaders are emphasizing the “jock tax” as a selling point to MLB officials. They argue, unlike other cities, Portland wouldn’t put a burden on taxpayers to fund the park.

By contrast, Utah’s stadium bill earmarks roughly $900 million for a potential MLB stadium and other improvements to the Power District through tax hikes, including an increase of 1.5% on rental car taxes.

Regardless of how stadium funds are raised, buy-in from the state would be a major step forward for the Diamond Project and a sign to MLB officials that it is a serious candidate for expansion. As ESPN baseball insider Jeff Passan wrote last year after Utah passed its stadium bill, “Salt Lake City’s reputation as front-runners is in large part due to [its] preparation and planning.”

Austin enters the picture

But it isn’t just Portland lurking in the distance.

The newly formed Austin Baseball Commission has launched its own campaign for an expansion franchise.

Matt Mackowiak, one of the group’s co-founders, believes the numbers favor the Texas capital over Salt Lake City. The Austin metropolitan area has nearly double the population (2.47 million) of the Salt Lake metro area (1.25 million). Nearly 1 million people live within the Austin city limits. And San Antonio (population 1.5 million) is within driving distance.

“You’ve got 4.5 million people [across the area]. It’s more than the entire State of Utah. Then you add to the massive tech boom that’s occurring here, and everything else,” Mackowiak said.

But one economist warned that the population of the metro area can be a misleading gauge. Salt Lake, for example, is listed as a smaller metro area but that number doesn’t account for all the cities that rely on Salt Lake’s economy and essentially function as a collective market.

“It’s tempting to just use Salt Lake. It’s an integrated market. It’s the same commuter shed. We classify it as the same regional economy, meaning the purchasing patterns and the economic structure and the commuting patterns are all a single economy,” Utah economist Natalie Gochnour said. “If you’re talking to someone outside of Utah, they may not get that nuance.”

Currently, Austin is rated the 34th biggest media market in the country. Salt Lake sits at 28th and Portland is 23rd.

But the Austin group also feels it presents Major League Baseball with a unique opportunity: While Portland and Salt Lake City already have at least one or two of the “big four” franchises, baseball would be the only major sport in the country’s 13th-largest city.

“Salt Lake already has two sports. It already has basketball, which is such a key civic institution. The community has supported the Jazz for so long. Really, it’s such an impressive thing,” Mackowiak said. “And now [there’s] hockey, which is a great fit for that market. So you’re taking a market that’s a third our size, and you’re adding a third sports team. You’re taking the corporate base, they’re [cutting] it by another third. We don’t have that problem here.”

But that doesn’t mean Austin’s pitch is without issues. Austin may not have pro teams, but it does have the University of Texas in its heart. UT takes up plenty of corporate sponsors. Not to mention, Austin would add a third baseball team to Texas, along with the Houston Astros and the Texas Rangers in Arlington.

Mackowiak thinks Austin is big enough to support both the University of Texas and a major league team. Plus, he believes once the next baseball television deal is nationalized, it won’t matter how many teams are in a single state.

“California has 44 million people. Before Oakland moves to Vegas next year, they’ll have four teams. That’s one team for every 11 million people,” he said. “Texas has 33 million and we have two teams.”

Mackowiak added that the University of Texas “doesn’t see pro baseball as a competitor,” and Austin Baseball leaders have no plans to put a stadium near the Longhorns’ campus.

“I don’t think our stadium is going to be in a proximity to the college stadium and it’s not going to create any kind of heartburn,” he said.

Still, the rest of the project is in its infancy. There are no firm plans on a stadium, though Mackowiak said ABC wants it to be in Travis County and seat 40,000 fans. The group doesn’t have firm plans for state funding, but Mackowiak said those are in the works. ABC is currently raising money from private donors, hoping for $2 million by the end of the year.

In terms of planning, Salt Lake and Portland are both significantly ahead. But Mackowiak is hoping Austin can catch up before MLB decides.

“We don’t have a billionaire owner of a top four sports franchise that is a natural leader,” Mackowiak said. “We have done this from the ground up. We did not start with Larry Miller. We don’t have that person who is highly credible with sports and has been vetted.”

It is the Austin market, he thinks, that is the attraction.

Confident, quiet in Salt Lake

In Salt Lake, there is a quiet confidence.

At least for now, Big League Utah officials will largely let their pitch stand for itself. They have an established ownership group, a stadium-in-waiting, public funding and a direct line to the league.

“While the league hasn’t announced a formal process or timeline, we believe we are the most prepared market,” Steve Miller, the chairman of the Larry H. Miller Company, said in a statement. “Utah is one of the fastest-growing and youngest states, and is regularly recognized as the best place for business and economic growth.”

There is likely a long runway before MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred makes his decision.

Manfred has said he wants to add to the league before his tenure is up at the end of 2028.

“The timeline that I’ve articulated is to have an expansion decision made before I leave in four years,” he said in 2024.

But first he has said he wants to square away the situations in Las Vegas and Tampa Bay before looking at expansion. The A’s are currently playing in Sacramento in a minor league stadium while they await a move to Vegas in three years. And Tampa Bay is playing in the Yankees’ minor league stadium after its own home was damaged in a hurricane. Long term, Tampa’s owners are seeking a new stadium.

But after that, Manfred intends to give out a golden ticket to two more cities.

Salt Lake is waiting. Its site is just three smokestacks and a pile of dirt right now. With one call, it could turn into something much more.

But others are hoping Major League Baseball calls them first.

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