Utah Attorney General Derek Brown says what goes on over the websites run by Kalshi is gambling, which makes it illegal in the state. He’s now gone to court to stop it.
Kalshi says it isn’t gambling. That it’s a “prediction market,” and that its business is subject to federal oversight, not the state’s. And they have gone to court to make Utah back off.
But in all honesty, the only way to accept that Kalshi isn’t gambling is to see that it is something worse.
Much of what happens on Kalshi and similar online operations is, as Brown says, indistinguishable from betting on the outcome of a baseball game or horse race. Like other big-time gambling operations, these modern online casinos offer a chance to bet on who will win but also, to keep the trigger finger itching, live game details like how many strikes a baseball pitcher will throw or which football team will gain the most yards in a quarter.
They have also moved far afield from sports. Players can “take out contracts” that will pay off if some nation bombs some other nation, if the president says a certain word in a speech, if a particular movie opens with a record box office weekend.
The risk to those playing these games is that it creates incentives and opportunities for someone with inside or advance knowledge of anything from a political poll to an Oval Office address to anonymously place a bet on what’s about to happen — or to influence what is said or done — and clean up from the rubes who weren’t privy to that information.
A White House teleprompter operator was fired and ordered to pay more than $172,000 for doing exactly that, based on his advance look at several of Donald Trump’s speeches between December 2025 and February 2026.
Brown emphasizes that he is not after the 32,000 or more Utahns who are Kalshi customers, any more than he is after the friendly poker game or the office NCAA basketball pool. He is after the operator that, arguably, is making victims of those who are in danger of developing a serious gambling addiction.
Kalshi, if Brown gets his way, would be expected to repay more than $30 million it has collected in fees and $5.5 million in lost wagers — in Utah alone.
Brown is right to tilt at this windmill.
Prediction markets are gambling, only with additional opportunities for insider trading and unfair influencing of results. The operators of the app, as well as anyone caught cheating, should be subject to heavy fines for violating what is clearly Utah law.
Editorials represent the opinions of The Salt Lake Tribune editorial board, which operates independently from the newsroom.