It’s going to take something like a hurricane for Utah to get snow this October. Even then, it will only fall on the state’s highest peaks.

Tropical Storm Rachel, which was downgraded from a hurricane Thursday, is expected to blow through Utah this weekend before dissipating around Evanston, Wyoming, on Monday. The appearance of a hurricane or tropical storm or even post-tropical depression — the remnants of a major storm before it peters out — is quite rare, according to Christine Kruse, the lead meteorologist for the National Weather Service’s Salt Lake City forecasting office. In fact, she estimated that in her 20 years here, she’s probably only seen it happen twice.

This one, though, could bring a welcome sight for Utahns wondering if winter would ever return.

Kruse said the moisture left by Rachel will likely combine with cold air coming in from a low-pressure system out of the Pacific Northwest around midweek. If the two systems time it right, the Wasatch and Uinta mountains should get snow, though Kruse said she doesn’t expect much more than a dusting to fall below 10,000 feet elevation.

“It’s just going to be a combination of when the cold air gets here,” she said, “and how low the snow levels are when it’s precipitating.”

It won’t be the first snowfall of the season, but it could be the first significant one. How much snow is expected to fall depends on who is doing the forecasting.

Open Snow, a forecasting service geared toward skiers and snowboarders, reported Friday that Snowbird could get up to 14 inches of snow between Monday and Wednesday next week. That was adjusted down from its Thursday morning prediction of 19 inches at Snowbird. It also said Friday that Alta Ski Area could see more than a foot and Brighton Resort would get about 8 inches.

“It’s a really fun and fascinating forecast,” Evan Thayer, Open Snow’s Utah meteorologist, wrote in a blog post. “I am significantly more optimistic about getting some real [snow] accumulation, as models have trended wetter for the middle to latter part of next week when we will actually have some cold air in place.

“For sure, we are going to get some substantial precip amounts.”

Meanwhile, Kruse at the National Weather Service wasn’t as optimistic. She said she expects 2 to 5 inches to fall at high elevations — including near Snowland Ski Area along Skyline Drive in the Manti-La Salle National Forest. She expects most of it to arrive between Tuesday and Wednesday with little snowfall on either end.

“I don’t know that it’s skiable,” she said.

That’s not great news for Brian Head Resort, which hopes to usher in Utah’s 2026-27 ski and snowboard season on Nov. 6. Despite its 9,600-foot base elevation, the state’s highest, Kruse said the ski area north of Cedar City is only supposed to see about 2 inches this week. Thayer’s model sets Brian Head’s potential at closer to 7 inches of snow.

One thing Kruse and Thayer can agree on is that any snow that falls won’t stick around very long.

The National Weather Service predicts Utah will have wet weather through next weekend. However, even at high elevations, temperatures are expected to return to highs in the upper-30s to low-40s by Thursday, Kruse said. That’s too warm to maintain a thin coat of snow.

Thayer agreed. Again taking an optimistic approach, though, he noted snow could remain on colder, north-facing slopes.

Kruse advised that anyone who plans to be outside above 10,000 feet next week should expect winter conditions.