Nearly half of Utah’s national forest lands — from the high desert peaks of the Pine Valley Mountains to popular hiking areas in the Wasatch — could soon lose protections from new road construction and logging.

The Trump administration is one step closer to repealing the 2001 Roadless Rule and opening nearly 45 million acres of national forests across the U.S. to possible development. Over 4 million acres, or 49%, of Utah’s national forest lands are classified as roadless areas.

“An attack on the Roadless Rule is an attack on the forests that we cherish here in the Wasatch Mountains,” Jack Stauss, executive director of Save Our Canyons, said in a statement.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture, which includes the Forest Service, released a draft environmental impact statement on Aug. 20 that outlines its proposal to rescind the roadless rule. The public has until Sept. 21 to submit a comment.

Many of Utah’s elected leaders have long opposed the roadless rule. The state asked the USDA in 2019 to create a Utah-specific rule that would allow Utah to proactively manage the forest. Gov. Spencer Cox has also vocally supported the Trump administration’s push to rescind the rule.

“For 25 years, the Roadless Rule has tied the hands of local land managers with a one-size-fits-all federal policy,” Cox said in a statement included in a USDA news release. “Rescinding it restores the flexibility to make thoughtful decisions based on the needs of each forest and each community.”

While repealing the roadless rule may increase flexibility, budget constraints may limit the potential for future road construction, according to the Forest Service’s own environmental analysis.

The agency currently has a nearly $7 billion backlog of needed maintenance on existing roads meant for passenger cars. New road construction in mountainous, steep terrain, which is typical of roadless areas, can be three to 10 times more costly than construction in flat landscapes, according to the Forest Service.

The Forest Service estimates that repealing the roadless rule could increase the agency’s revenue from logging by $5.2 to $11.4 million annually.

Roadless areas “don’t have roads in them mostly because they’re very difficult to build roads into, they’re very costly and the environmental impacts of building roads in that kind of country is a lot higher,” said Dale Bosworth, former Forest Service chief and forest supervisor on what was previously the Wasatch-Cache National Forest.

Here’s how repealing the Roadless Rule may affect Utah:

Roads could spark more fires but allow more mitigation

The USDA and Utah have blamed the roadless rule for the explosion in wildfires across the West.

“For too long, outdated restrictions have kept tens of millions of forested acres off-limits to the very treatments that improve forest health and reduce wildfire risk to our communities,” Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said in a release.

The Forest Service’s own analysis, though, concluded that repealing the roadless rule could lead to more human-caused fires. But the agency said it may provide more opportunity for mitigation work, like thinning, as well.

About 12% of the roadless areas in the Intermountain region, which includes Utah, are within high-priority firesheds, or areas where wildfires pose a significant risk to communities and infrastructure, according to the Forest Service.

The roadless rule “does not prohibit and has not entirely prevented hazardous fuels reduction,” in roadless areas, the Forest Service said in its analysis. The rule allows for prescribed burning and some tree removal. However, limited road access and steep terrain can make such work in roadless areas more difficult.

Repealing the roadless rule won’t make all current roadless areas accessible, though. The Forest Service found that the majority of acres in the Intermountain region’s high-priority firesheds are “likely inoperable,” meaning mechanical thinning operations likely aren’t feasible.

Research shows the relationship between roads and fire is complex: roads can increase fire starts but may also help firefighters suppress fires quicker.

Data from the National Interagency Fire Center show that humans cause the majority of Utah’s wildfires, but fires caused by natural causes, such as lightning, tend to burn more acres.

More ignitions happen near roads as humans drag trailer chains, park cars on dry grass and light campfires. But fires may spread further in remote, roadless areas far from humans.

James Johnston, a professor at the University of Oregon who studies fire ecology, has conducted research analyzing wildfire data in national forests. In a forthcoming paper, he and his colleagues found that over the last roughly 12 years, there has been slightly less fire in roadless areas than developed areas.

“If roads are the solution to the wildfire problem, then how come roads aren’t the solution to the wildfire problem?” Johnston said. “How come we have the same or slightly worse fire outcomes in areas with roads than without roads?”

The negative effects of fire — most notably damage to human infrastructure — most often happen in areas with roads, Johnston said.

“If we’re serious about keeping homes from burning down,” he added, “we need to prioritize treatments and maintenance of roads where we have the existing road system because that’s where the homes are.”

The recreation economy may see a dip

The Forest Service found that repealing the roadless rule will likely have a negative effect on recreation. Increased logging and road construction could impair the backcountry experience many visitors seek in current roadless areas.

“The Roadless Rule is and always has been about valuing our public lands and the open space, prime hunting and fishing, clean drinking water, and freedom they provide,” Chris Wood, president and CEO of Trout Unlimited, said in a statement. Wood was involved in crafting the roadless rule 25 years ago.

The Forest Service also doesn’t anticipate repealing the roadless rule will lead to more developed recreation sites due to funding constraints.

The BlueRibbon Coalition, a motorized recreation advocacy group, supports the repeal, though. “The Roadless Rule has too often prevented land managers from using common-sense tools needed to actively manage forests and maintain reasonable public access,” Ben Burr, executive director of BlueRibbon Coalition, said in a statement earlier this year.

The Forest Service estimates a dip in recreation could lead to the loss of around $9 million in visitor spending in communities around national forests.

Road construction and logging could harm wildlife

The Forest Service’s analysis found that repealing the rule could have numerous negative effects on wildlife, including more deaths, fragmented habitats, declines in genetic diversity and lower reproduction rates.

“The government’s own scientists found that repealing the Roadless Rule could harm hundreds of species already at risk of extinction,” Kate Groetzinger, communications director for the Center for Western Priorities, said in a statement.

Road construction and increased road use could also introduce and spread invasive species. This would also increase costs for the Forest Service to identify and treat such species.

The Center for Biological Diversity found that repealing the roadless rule could affect more than 400 plants and animals listed as threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act.

That includes numerous species in Utah, including the wolverine that roams the remote Uinta Mountains, the Mexican spotted owl that perches in tree canopies across southern Utah and the razorback sucker that swims in rivers that weave through eastern Utah forests.

Utah’s scarce water resources may become impaired

Over 1 million people in the Intermountain region get water directly from watersheds that include roadless areas, according to the Forest Service. Water that flows through roadless areas in the region also journeys downstream to larger waterways and supports an additional 3.7 million people.

Snow that melts in roadless areas in the Wasatch and Uinta mountains feeds waterways such as Big Cottonwood Creek, American Fork River and Provo River and provides irrigation and drinking water to Utah’s major cities along the Wasatch Front.

Creeks that run through roadless areas in the Pine Valley Mountains flow to the Santa Clara River, which eventually meets the Virgin River and supports the rapid growth of Washington County.

Roadless areas “are places that are at the headwaters of a lot of the rivers and streams, and they’re very important,” Bosworth said. “You want to keep that water flowing clean because a lot of it gets used for communities for drinking water.”

More road construction and logging could increase sediment in creeks, streams and rivers that run through the national forests and degrade the water quality. Less trees in the forest after a timber harvest could also lead to quicker snowmelt runoff in the spring.

The Forest Service will accept public comments through Sept. 21 before making a final rule. Environmental groups have also asked the Forest Service to extend the comment period and host public meetings.