Out of the blue, the forecasters at OpenSnow.com this week offered a bit of salve for the hot, parched conditions plaguing Utah this summer. The upcoming ski and snowboard season, they say, could rank among the snowiest in state history. And it’s all due to one phenomena:

All hail the Whale!

No, not the 9th and 9th Whale credited for conjuring the flabbergasting 2022-23 ski season — Utah’s snowiest on record at 903 inches at Alta (though the beloved art installation may play a role this season, too). The 2026-27 season’s potential bounty is being attributed to the arrival of a “super” El Niño weather system. And, perhaps not coincidentally, the areas expected to receive above-average snowfall in North America form the shape of a whale — with Utah right in the middle of it.

In the past, El Niños in Utah have been fluky. Some seasons they have brought phenomenal snowfall, such as the 637 inches in 1982-83, the state’s second-snowiest season on record. Other times, they have barely scratched 400 inches at the Alta Guard Station, like in 2015-16.

This time, it’s for real, said Evan Thayer, OpenSnow’s Utah forecaster.

El Niño has been “generally acting like an ex who can’t commit to a pattern,” Thayer wrote in a blog post for Ski Utah.

“Well, buckle up,” he added, “because all indications are that El Niño is finally ready to commit for the 2026–27 season, and according to [the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration], this time he’s not messing around.”

NOAA has already issued an El Niño advisory. According to the agency’s models, the Northern Hemisphere has an 81% chance of an El Niño through December and 97% chance of one into the spring.

In the 2026-27 winter forecast he issued this week, OpenSnow meteorologist Alan Smith said January through March will be most favored for snowfall in Utah. He also noted that Park City might be the place to go to get that snow. The city typically “has one of the strongest correlations with above-normal snowfall during the strongest El Nino events,” he wrote.

Nonetheless, Smith said the rest of the ski areas in the Wasatch Mountains should also get their fill. Brian Head Resort near Cedar City also typically benefits from El Niño patterns — as would Eagle Point Resort if the Cottonwood Fire hadn’t forced it to stay closed next season.

Amid all this seemingly good weather news, though, lies a caveat.

“Strong” or “super” El Niños are caused by especially warm ocean temperatures, which means they typically bring warmer weather. In fact, models from both OpenSnow and the National Weather Service show most of the northern half of the United States is expected to have above-average temperatures this winter. The southern part of Utah, including around Brian Head, appears to be on track for normal temperatures, though.

Given that last ski season was spoiled not by lack of moisture but by temperatures too warm to even manufacture snow, that combination may seem ominous.

Thayer confirmed a repeat of 2025-26 is a possibility.

“While a super El Niño might increase our odds of above normal precipitation, it may also increase the odds of warmer temperatures,” he wrote in a text to The Salt Lake Tribune, “which could have a negative impact on mid elevation snowpack. Something that plagued us last year.”

In fact, it’s because of those warm temperatures that Smith wrote he expects below-average snowfall within Salt Lake City this winter.

Yet Smith cautioned that just because the models predict “above average” temperatures are likely, that does not mean the region will see “well above normal” temperatures like it did in most of 2025-26.

“Last winter was exceptionally warm – the warmest on record for a large portion of the West,” he wrote, “and it’s unlikely it will be that warm again this winter even if this above-average outlook verifies.”

So, Utah skiers may really be in for a whale of a season — or, it might be just a fluke.

Correction: Aug. 14, 2026, 9 a.m. • Alta got 637 inches of snow in 1982-83. The year was incorrect in a previous version of this article.