Provo • People are betting on whether Tyler Robinson will be convicted of fatally shooting Charlie Kirk — and the Utah man’s defense team says allowing cameras in the courtroom only encourages more prediction market wagers.

Robinson, 23, is facing multiple charges, including aggravated murder, in connection with Kirk’s Sept. 10, 2025, death.

As of Tuesday afternoon, Polymarket speculators had wagered some $316,990 predicting “yes” or “no” to the question “Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?” The market predicted a 41% chance he would be convicted of homicide by the end of July 2027.

Those bets inspired Robinson’s defense lawyers’ latest attempt to keep cameras out of the courtroom. They had argued earlier this year that cameras should be barred to contain the flow of potentially prejudicial information to future jurors. Those arguments failed.

While defense attorneys initially made the arguments about the prediction market betting behind closed doors, 4th District Judge Tony Graf revealed their reasoning ahead of the final oral arguments in Robinson’s preliminary hearing Tuesday. After listening to those arguments, Graf ruled there was probable cause to move the case forward.

Robinson’s attorneys argued against cameras, according to a judge’s ruling, saying the day’s oral arguments could “move markets” and draw speculative interest. And, Graf said, they expressed concern about the betting commodifying a death penalty-eligible case.

Graf, however, denied the defense attorneys’ motion to keep cameras out on Tuesday.

He also denied the defense team’s request that their arguments about Polymarket betting be kept private. He instead summarized the substance of the defense team’s argument while reading his ruling on Tuesday, and said a transcript of the closed hearing will be made publicly available.

Polymarket users are betting on other high-profile court cases, including the verdict in the Lindsay Clancy murder trial in Massachusetts.

They’re also betting on whether YouTuber Ben Schneider, also known as Reckless Ben, will be in jail by the end of the year. The 30-year-old recently spent time filming in Utah. First, he targeted Bricks & Minifigs, a Utah-based Lego resale company, over a disputed valuable Lego collection and ended up with criminal charges himself. He also went undercover, posing as a teenager at the now-closed Provo Canyon School.