Utah’s Sen. Mike Lee is pitching a sweeping reform of food stamps that would require states to take on a larger cost of the program. But if the country sinks into recession, among the Americans who would take the biggest hit are Lee’s own constituents.
According to an analysis by the Urban Institute, the change Lee is proposing to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program — or SNAP — could lead to an additional 862,000 Americans being pushed into poverty if the country were to experience a Great Recession-level economic collapse and if states, amid that recession, are unable or unwilling stretch their budgets to make up the difference.
The social and economic policy think tank, founded by President Lyndon B. Johnson, also estimated that if Utah did not drastically increase spending on the program under Lee’s cost-share plan, Utah families receiving food stamps would see the second-largest loss in benefits. Food help in the Beehive State would go down by an average of $731 per household annually, just under Wyoming’s reduction of $776.
Under current policy, funding for SNAP automatically expands to help households when they lose jobs in a recession.
Lee’s SNAP Reform and Upward Mobility Act would require states to begin a 10-year transition toward paying half the cost for food stamps. With such a policy in place, it would ultimately be up to states whether to expand spending in a recession or slash how much each eligible household receives.
The Urban Institute’s estimates assume states choose the latter, and only take into account a 10% cost-share. State spending or loss in benefits in a recession would be much higher under the eventual 50% Lee envisions.
Even without a recession, Utah, if it is required to cover SNAP costs, would be spending approximately $19 million more in fiscal 2026 under a 5% cost-share. By the time it reached 50% cost-share, the annual amount Utah spends on SNAP would likely be pushing $200 million.
The senator’s office did not respond to a request for comment on the analysis, published Wednesday.
A news release on Lee’s website called the bill, which also expands work requirements, “a bold piece of legislation” that would “[close] loopholes that have contributed to [SNAP’s] rapid expansion.”
The House sponsor of the bill, Rep. Josh Brecheen, R-Oklahoma, was quoted in the release saying, “For decades, the federal government has grossly mismanaged SNAP, loosening eligibility requirements, allowing more recipients to be totally exempt from work requirements, and overseeing massive fraud and abuse,” citing that as a reason for “giving states more responsibility for program management.”
A 2024 SNAP “reform framework” from the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute mirrors measures in the bill. The report’s authors hypothesize that work requirements would reduce poverty by “promoting upward economic mobility,” and argue that requiring states to take on a larger cost of the program would “incentivize states to implement SNAP more efficiently.”
