Will Kalshi and other prediction markets shut down — or be shut down — in Utah after the Beehive State’s victory in federal court this week?

That’s the question many are asking after U.S. District Judge Robert Shelby ruled in the state’s favor Tuesday in Kalshi’s lawsuit against Gov. Spencer Cox and Utah Attorney General Derek Brown.

In the suit, Kalshi sought to preempt Utah from taking action against the prediction market industry, alleging that the federal government’s Commodity Futures Trading Commission — which has supported Kalshi’s right to operate freely — has sole authority over the markets Kalshi runs.

The state, meanwhile, argued that its anti-gambling laws prevent exactly the kind of bets happening on Kalshi, which advertises the ability to “trade contracts based on whether specific events will happen” — such as the outcomes of sporting events, elections, even the day’s weather.

Shelby agreed with Cox and Brown, and granted Utah summary judgment in the case. His decision went beyond denying Kalshi the preemptive judgment it wanted, further advancing Utah’s ability to regulate prediction markets in the state.

“It would be inconsistent,” Shelby wrote, “for Congress to allow states to regulate their gambling laws but to simultaneously require states to provide citizens access to every event contract, including those that constitute gambling under state law.”

On Wednesday, Kalshi immediately appealed the ruling to the Denver-based 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.

What happens now?

The question now is whether Utahns will be able to trade prediction contracts on Kalshi moving forward.

Shelby’s ruling did not immediately order Kalshi to stop operating in the state. Instead, it denied the company a preemptive injunction against Utah’s anti-prediction market actions.

That means Utahns still can place bets on Kalshi and related prediction markets like Polymarket.

But that might change. Brown, Utah’s attorney general, said in a Tuesday statement that he would enforce the state’s gambling laws in the wake of Shelby’s ruling.

“You can’t rebrand illegal gambling as a federal commodity, and today a federal judge agreed with us,” Brown said. “Kalshi bet that clever branding would beat Utah law. Kalshi lost, and Utah won. Utah’s constitution bans gambling to protect Utah families, and my office will enforce that ban. Gambling is gambling, no matter what any company calls it.”

Brown also noted that “offering online gambling to anyone in the state is a third-degree felony,” and told FOX 13 News, “At this point of the game, we’re simply looking at what our options are, and I would say that everything’s on the table.”

The Utah attorney general’s office did not respond to a Salt Lake Tribune request for further information on how it seeks to enforce Utah’s gambling ban with regards to Kalshi and its users.

Likewise, whether Kalshi will pull out of Utah as a result of the ruling is unknown. Kalshi did not immediately respond to an inquiry from The Tribune on whether it would continue operating in the state.

What about other states?

Kalshi is currently restricted in a number of states where it has lost legal battles. In Michigan, its sports-contract operation has been halted by a temporary restraining order. In Nevada, famously home to a legalized gambling empire, the platform has lost the ability to offer sports, election and entertainment event contracts. An injunction preventing operation in Washington state took effect Wednesday. Placing prediction contract bets on sports events was restricted in Massachusetts, but an emergency stay in that state won by Kalshi has kept the market open for now.

In states where it is not allowed to operate, Kalshi uses geofencing technology to limit the contracts on which users can speculate.

Utah’s HB243, which clarified that betting “on an individual action, statistic, occurrence, or non-occurrence” qualified as gambling under state law, passed by significant margins in the House and Senate in the 2026 legislative session. Cox signed it into law in March.

Sports gambling lawyer Daniel Wallach is among those who expect Utah to join the growing list of states in which Kalshi is blocked.

“With states piling up court wins vs. Kalshi, the over/under on the number of geofenced states by early 2027 is 10,” Wallach wrote on X. “Take the over.”

There are ongoing legal battles involving at least 17 states regarding whether prediction markets can continue unfettered.

In New Jersey, Tennessee, Arizona and Minnesota, judges issued preliminary injunctions supporting Kalshi, preventing gambling laws seeking to stop Kalshi from taking effect. In Maryland, Nevada, Ohio, New York, Wisconsin and now Utah, courts denied Kalshi the injunction it sought in lawsuits. Many of these cases are still ongoing, and rulings are messier elsewhere.

Eventually, it is expected that higher federal courts, and likely the U.S. Supreme Court, will end up with the final say — unless Congress steps in.

The Trump administration has largely supported Kalshi and similar prediction markets. Donald Trump Jr. was named as a strategic adviser to Kalshi in 2025.

What was the reaction to the Utah ruling?

Cox, who has argued that sports betting on Kalshi is “destroying lives,” was among those who celebrated the ruling.

“Prediction markets are gambling, full stop. They are causing tremendous harm to countless American families,” Cox wrote Tuesday on social media. “Today’s ruling affirms that Utah’s anti-gambling laws are an appropriate way to protect our citizens and are not preempted by federal law.”

Sen. John Curtis, R-Utah, agreed.

“No matter how companies like Kalshi try to spin it, prediction markets operating as federally registered exchanges are subject to Utah’s constitutional gambling ban,”Curtis wrote on X. “Gambling is gambling — and today’s summary judgment proves just how obvious a fact that is. This is a major win for states’ rights and Utah’s families.”

And the American Gaming Association, which lobbies on behalf of traditional gambling outlets like casinos, also lauded Shelby’s judgment, even though its gambling activities are not allowed in Utah.

“A Utah judge’s final decision reaffirms that the authority to regulate gambling rests with the state. We agree with Attorney General Brown and 43 other state attorneys general that sports gambling is sports gambling — the so-called ‘prediction markets’ can’t rebrand it and offer it outside the law,” an association spokesperson wrote in an email. “The AGA applauds Governor Cox and Attorney General Brown for upholding Utah’s laws and protecting its residents.”

Shelby has made headlines before with his rulings. In 2013, Shelby struck down Utah’s ban on same-sex marriage even before the U.S. Supreme Court legalized such unions nationally.

In 2024, Shelby also blocked a Utah law that asked social media platforms to complete age verification and prevent children from accessing the sites.