St. George • If Democratic candidates in Utah’s fifth-most populous county had a religious mascot, it would likely be Saint Jude, the patron saint of lost causes.

How much of a stranglehold have Republicans held on county elective offices over the past 56 years? No Democrat has been elected to county or state office here since county commissioner Merrill Stucki left office in 1970, according to county election officials.

“Every election year the result is the same,” said Hurricane resident Tom Swoopes, a registered independent who typically votes Republican. “They enter the political arena with no sporting chance of victory and get slaughtered. I don’t see any reason the outcome of this year’s elections will be any different.”

Washington County, after all, is Trump country. In the 2024 election, Trump tallied over 75% of the vote in the county compared to Democrat Kamala Harris’ nearly 23%, virtually mirroring his 2020 dominance over Joe Biden.

Democrats in local races fared no better, with most getting 25% or less of the vote. Active Republican voters in the county outnumber their Democrat counterparts by more than a 7-to-1 ratio, 72,156 to 9,880, according to county’s deputy clerk, Genna Goodwin.

So why do Democrats in St. George think they could fare any better in the 2026 midterms? Recent data analyzed by Politico holds out a glimmer of hope.

Since President Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, the news organization found, Democratic candidates have surpassed the marks set by former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 elections in 193 out of 229 contests across the country.

Politico’s analysis showed these contenders have typically outpaced Harris by a 5-point margin, with some outliers in special elections swinging more than 20 points toward the left. Moreover, the data indicated Democratic gains are extending beyond deep-blue areas into Trump-won territory.

For example, the party saw massive swings, including a 45-point improvement in a Brooklyn state Senate district and 28- and 27-point surges in Rhode Island and Oklahoma state contests, respectively. In addition, in some swing areas, the results suggest Democratic candidates are making gains with Republican and unaffiliated voters, according to CNN.

Despite higher Republican turnout (46% versus roughly 36% for Democrats), for instance, Democrats flipped two Florida legislative seats in March. Emily Gregory won House District 87, home to Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort, while Brian Nathan won Senate District 14, overcoming the GOP’s registration edge.

Another notable result happened in a Texas Senate district that Democrats had not won in nearly half a century and Trump carried by more than 17 points in 2024. Buoyed by a spike in Latino support, Democrat Taylor Rehmet bested his GOP opponent, Leigh Wambsganss, in a January special election by 14 points.

Shifting left is one thing. But winning is something else entirely.

A tall order

While Republican Washington County Commissioner Adam Snow is not entirely dismissive of Democrats ending Republican dominance, he said he is not overly worried.

“I wouldn’t say I’m losing a lot of sleep about a local blue wave,” said Snow, who is not up for reelection. “At the same time, I have run campaigns for candidates. I always tell them that if they don’t act like and truly believe they could lose, even to a Democrat in Washington County, they are not paying attention because it can happen if they let their guard down.”

Geoff Allen, who chairs the Washington County Democratic Party, conceded that flipping a seat in even more deep red southern Utah county is a tall order. Still, he said Democrats’ hopes for a 2026 blue wave in Utah are rising, driven by gains in Salt Lake County — the anchor of the recently redrawn 1st Congressional District — and surrounding suburban areas as well as in Summit, Cache and Grand County.

That said, he doesn’t foresee that wave cresting in Washington County, saying a more likely scenario is for a gradual shift to occur.

“The shifts toward Democrats that we are seeing up north are going to start happening here,” he said. “It’s coming. I think this will be the first election cycle where we start to see it happen.”

Fractures are beginning to emerge in the GOP, Allen added. He said many Republicans tell him that they are disgusted by the leadership on display by the GOP in Washington and by Utah state legislators’ failed attempt to repeal Prop 4, the state’s anti-gerrymandering law.

“I have lifelong Republicans tell me, ‘I don’t like your party, but I can’t vote for or support what my party is doing,’” Allen said. “When you have people who are unhappy about what Republicans are doing, they have to be willing to vote for someone different. That is what we are providing this election.”

In this year’s midterms, the Democratic Party is running candidates in nearly every contest — a shift compared to recent election cycles — which Allen hopes will give unhappy Republican voters more alternatives to consider.

Allen also lauded the quality of this year’s candidates, saying they have a fighting chance to outperform the registration disparity between Republicans and Democrats. The candidates have experience ranging from the culinary and percussive arts to social work and native plant rescue, to name a few. Though none of them has sought political office before, Allen said he has no reservations about their ability.

“We have solid, qualified candidates who, if elected, can go into the job and be able to hit the ground running,” he said.

Other factors fueling Democrats’ optimism, Allen noted, is that the county party has a new website and has more cash on hand than at any time in recent memory.

Seeing red, not blue

Political analyst Jason Perry’s advice on Republicans losing: Don’t count on it.

“Looking at the history of Washington County, the idea of a blue wave or even a blue ripple right now is exceptionally remote,” he said. “That part of the state isn’t just red, but based on what happened in 2024, may be trending even more to the right.”

Perry, the director of the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah, noted conservative Phil Lyman, while losing to Utah Gov. Spencer Cox in the 2024 June Republican primary, outpolled the more moderate incumbent by more than 6,000 votes.

For Democrats to have a chance, Perry said there would need to be a change in the overwhelming Republican electorate and the party would need to field an ideal candidate who could attract broad support.

“Right now,” he continued, “we are not seeing that in Washington County.”