St. George • In the high desert of southern Utah, trickle-down isn’t a political debate — it’s the frustrating reality of this year’s anemic spring runoff.

Everywhere they look in the drought-prone region, water managers and weather forecasters say the amount of water trickling down out of the mountains above St. George and Cedar City has been an epic fail.

Glenn Merrill, hydrologist with the National Weather Service’s Salt Lake City office, can sum up this year’s spring runoff, which peaked on March 9 about a month early, with one four-letter word: weak.

“The peak was not really that noticeable,” Merrill said. “We see similar bumps in the runoff from [individual] rain events.”

More trickle than torrent

The reason this year’s runoff to the Santa Clara River and Virgin River Basin resembles a trickle rather than a torrent is, like the rest of the state, due to the record low snowpack, the result of record-warm temperatures in November and December, which caused the precipitation in the surrounding mountains to fall as rain instead of snow.

March temperatures, the warmest on record, further exacerbated matters in St. George, where temperatures hit 93 degrees, two degrees higher than the previous record for the month recorded in 2004, according to the National Weather Service.

“Southwestern Utah, like every other basin in the state, is at a record low for snow-water equivalent,” said Jordan Clayton, a hydrologist at the Utah Snow Survey. “We are looking at unprecedented poor snowfall conditions.”

For example, Clayton said, the snow-water equivalent in southwest Utah now stands at 1.7 inches, compared to the 8 inches that is typical for this time of year. Of all the SNOTEL measuring sites in the region, he added, only three of them have any snow: Midway Valley and Brian Head in the mountains above Cedar City and Kolob above Zion National Park.

“Going back to 1930, we have never seen a winter like this,” Clayton said. “From a statistical perspective, it isn’t likely we would get two of these in a row, but of course we don’t know what is coming next winter.”

Little relief in sight

Short-term forecasts don’t promise much relief. Citing the Climate Prediction Center, Merrill said the weather forecast from April through June is calling for a high probability of above-average temperatures and below-normal precipitation.

What’s left of the run-off season also looks less than promising. Merrill said the cumulative runoff from the Virgin River Basin and Santa Clara River, from April through July, is expected to total 43% and 44% of average, respectively.

Coal Creek runoff in eastern Iron County is projected to be 28% of normal, while Beaver Creek’s forecast is an even more dismal 22%. Further north, the Sevier River runoff near Hatch along the Highway 89 corridor is expected to be 38% of average.

One bright spot in the otherwise cheerless forecast is the summer monsoon season. Due to the lack of snowpack, Merrill said the season is expected to arrive early and be more active than normal due to warm surface temperatures in the Gulf of California in the Baja region of northwestern Mexico.

A high pressure formation forecast for the Four Corners area, which typically rotates in a counterclockwise direction, could drive monsoonal moisture north into southwestern Utah, he explained. Also providing hope is the water levels in area storage reservoirs.

Even as Washington and Iron counties continue to slide into severe and extreme drought, Zach Renstrom, Washington County Water Conservancy District general manager, said the district is in good shape, thanks to efforts made to capture as much rain as possible from fall and winter rainstorms.

Gunlock Reservoir is full, and Quail Creek and Sand Hollow stand at near 90% capacity, he noted. Renstrom also credited the reservoirs and other infrastructure the district has put in place over the past decades, and area residents’ efforts to conserve water.

“If it wasn’t for the large infrastructure that was built … we would be in a bad place and I’d be nervous,” he said. “But because we have this infrastructure, we can manage the water we have. So this summer, we’ll be OK.”

That said, this year’s wildland fire season could be a scorcher. The National Interagency Coordination Center is forecasting above-normal conditions for significant wildland fire for southern Utah’s lower elevations beginning in May. By June, that elevated risk is expected to cover the southern third of the state and then spread statewide the following month.