Why are the Utes favorites vs. undefeated BYU? Let’s look at the odds, stats and key questions.

There’s a legitimate case for this edition of the Utah-BYU game to be the biggest football game in this state in the last 15 years.

For the first time since 2009, both teams are ranked heading into the rivalry matchup. They’re a combined 11-1. Both teams have their eyes on the Big 12 title game.

And, if we’re honest, there’s also some real fear for both fan bases coming into this one. The Cougars have needed comebacks to defeat Colorado and Arizona, leaving in doubt whether they’re as vaunted as their 6-0 record would suggest. Meanwhile, the Utes are fresh off big wins against West Virginia and Arizona State — and still, at the top of many minds is just how dismal the team looked against better competition in Texas Tech.

Oh, and there are bigger issues at play here, too. Can Utah reverse the trend after two upset losses (following nine consecutive wins of their own, of course)? Has name, image and likeness (NIL) money changed the course of these two programs, and who will have the edge in recruiting? And, uh, in the eyes of some: Which fan base does the man above root for?

So let’s break it down: What factors will decide this year’s winner?

Can Devon Dampier pass against BYU’s defense?

Devon Dampier showed off what he can do with his legs against Arizona State last weekend, rushing for 120 yards and three touchdowns to push Utah to a dominating win. He barely needed to throw the ball, completing just seven passes in the game.

But the ground game should be much harder for the Utes against the Cougars, who have been one of the conference’s top rushing defenses; they’ll need to be more versatile.

Dampier has had an up-and-down passing year. On one hand, he actually leads the Big 12 in completion percentage. But against Texas Tech — and fighting an ankle injury — he struggled to find even the most open of receivers.

The good news for Dampier is that he should have time to throw, as BYU’s pass rush hasn’t been great at getting to the quarterback. Arizona’s Noah Fifita dropped back to pass 48 times against the Cougars last weekend, but was never sacked.

The bad news is that it’s not clear whether Dampier is good at taking advantage of those opportunities. He has just three completions, among 19 attempts, for passes at least 20 yards down the field. Two of those 16 incompletions were interceptions.

To what extent will Utah’s defensive style curb BYU?

Meanwhile, we also saw the Cougars get very run-dependent against the Wildcats. Twenty-five rushes from LJ Martin and another 22 from Bear Bachmeier against just 12 pass completions tell the story. They snuck out the win anyway because they were successful at it, though.

Here’s my question: Will BYU be able to run so much, so often, and so successfully against the Utes’ defense?

Nobody plays more man defense than the University of Utah, across college football: 59% of the time, the Utes are in those looks. Jonathan Hall and Lander Barton have been terrific against the run, with 30 tackles for loss between them. It makes sense for the Utes to stack the box as much as possible.

Even then, though, the Cougars might stick to outside rush plays, for another reason: The Utes also very definitely have had a tackling problem this year. They rank just 88th in the nation in PFF’s tackle grade. If Martin — or even Parker Kingston on some end-around or jet sweep type of plays — can get outside the hashmarks or just in spaces where Utah can’t gang tackle, they could pick up big, game-defining chunks of yardage.

Will penalties turn the tide again?

I don’t know if anyone remembers this. No one got mad about it, or ever mentioned it again.

But on the game-winning drive by BYU last year, the Utes got called for a defensive holding that extended the game on fourth down, giving the Cougars new life they’d end up taking advantage of.

That being said, it’s been the Cougars who have been more likely to commit penalties this season, committing seven per game compared to the Utes’ 4.8 per game (against FBS competition). All in all, the difference has meant about 13 more backward yards per game for BYU when compared to Utah.

Weird things happen in these contests, and officials have played key roles in that drama over and over again. Which team’s players keep the coolest heads in the fourth quarter of this one could make the difference.

Game projections

Despite BYU’s lead in the standings and home-field advantage, it’s actually the Utes favored in this one, by either three or 3.5 points, depending on the bookmaker. The moneylines indicated that the Utes have about a 60% chance of winning this game, and sure enough, 59% of bettors so far have picked the Utes to win.

The various analytic systems also tend to favor Utah. For example, the FEI rating system indicates Utah has a 56% chance of winning, with a projected margin of victory of 2.4 points. At CFB Graphs, Utah’s favored by a full touchdown, 29-22, thanks to stronger offensive and defensive success rates.

ESPN, though, calls this a 51/49 near-tie in favor of BYU.