Ace Bailey might have been the NBA draft’s second-most talented player.
There’s just so much there. He’s 6-8, with a 7-foot wingspan. Put in play, he can reach up to 9 feet standing. He’s bouncy as all get out, especially in open space, like when he goes for weak-side blocks. He has an absolutely incredible release point on his jump shot, his long arms going as high as they can go to get that shot off over contesting defenders.
When he shoots that shot, he makes it at a very high level. Bailey made 46% of his midrange shots last year, per barttorvik.com. By way of comparison, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander also made 46% of his midrange shots last year. Obviously, it’s a different level of competition, but Bailey’s skill from there is an extremely good building block, and he’ll rely on it often.
In general, Utah Jazz president of basketball operations Austin Ainge was higher on his other skills than the consensus, too.
“Watching a lot of film on him, I was impressed with his defensive effort and particularly his rebounding. (There were) a lot of weak-side blocked shots,” he said.
However, Bailey might also be the NBA draft’s most immature player.
Off the court, Bailey skipped workouts with every NBA team this draft cycle, in an ill-fated effort to steer his landing spot to Washington or Brooklyn. To be fair, his interviews reveal that it was less his choice to do so than the advice of those around him, especially agent Omar Cooper. But the same interviews also show Bailey’s naïveté in allowing those plans to take shape, as well as a certain childlike boisterousness that’s going to make the Jazz feel younger than ever.
On the court, that 18-year-old youth shows itself, too. Bailey sees himself as a bucket-getter; at any and all costs, he’s going to get shots up. His defense is inconsistent, his tendency to find open teammates doubly so. He doesn’t have a great handle, and he can be quite turnover prone.
With one hand, you can look at that immaturity as a big negative that makes Bailey less likely to succeed in the NBA. That was certainly the opinion of those who run the Philadelphia 76ers and Charlotte Hornets, who passed on Bailey despite the talent.
But there’s a really optimistic way to look at Bailey’s youth in every respect.
What happens if Bailey were to surround himself with people who saw him as part of a team construct pushing for wins, rather than maximize a prospect’s value?
What happens if, instead of being subject to some of NCAA’s worst coaches at Rutgers, he were to be surrounded by specific NBA-level development staff, seeking to improve the weaknesses holding him back?
What happens if he simply grows up — as he becomes no longer 18 — and finds more maturity in his approach?
It’s easy to imagine: Bailey could coalesce into a bona fide NBA star. Not just a scorer, but an all-around killer. The block of clay refined into a stunning sculpture.
Meanwhile, the Jazz’s pick at No. 21, Walter Clayton Jr., might be Bailey’s opposite. Standing at 6-2, he lacks the size of the vast majority of NBA players. He’s 22 years old, not only four years older than Bailey, but older than every player the Jazz have drafted in the last three drafts. Where Bailey was a frequent loser at Rutgers this season, Clayton’s Florida Gators won the national championship with Clayton as their best player.
A former football player, Clayton will balance out Bailey’s exuberance with his own title-winning wisdom — strength and focus in the big moments. “He is tough and smart,” Ainge said. “An amazing shooter, athletic and mature.”
It’s that approach that turned Ainge into a big fan of Clayton’s for his entire collegiate career, even when he played for mid-major Iona. “He’s really gotten better as an athletic kid learning the point guard position throughout college. He just got better and better and better at it every year, and that really impressed me.”
“I could’ve told you two years ago he was going to trade up to get Clayton‚” Brad Stevens, the Boston Celtics’ president of basketball operations, said of his former employee’s night.
The trade was a bit of a costly one. To move up just three spots in the NBA Draft, the Jazz gave up three future second-round picks: the No. 43 pick that would have been used in Thursday’s second round, a second-round pick in 2030, and a second-round pick in 2031. In general, analytics show it’s usually considered a wiser approach to keep those picks to simply take shots on more players down the road. More players mean more chances to succeed.
But Clayton was the Jazz’s target over the last two weeks, Ainge said, and they simply weren’t sure that he was going to fall to them at No. 21. As a result, the Jazz began engaging teams in the teens for the selection to get Clayton, a deal which finally consummated just minutes before the No. 18 pick was to be used by Washington.
The selections lead the Jazz into an offseason where they expect to be active, with the Jazz shopping their veterans across the league.
One trade Ainge said wouldn’t happen was the acquisition of Jaylen Brown, after it was rumored that the Jazz were interested in the Celtics star in the days leading up into the draft. “I don’t like to confirm or deny rumors, just as a policy, but I will this time. No, that hasn’t happened. No conversations that way.” Ainge said.
That makes sense. Brown is just entering a five-year, $304 million supermax contract he signed with the Celtics. To spend $100 million combined in 2025-26 on Brown and Lauri Markkanen wouldn’t likely push the Jazz towards true playoff contention, especially when considering the trade assets they’d have to give up to Boston in the process.
The pieces just aren’t ready yet. We learned in the 2024-25 season that the rest of the Jazz’s core simply aren’t ready to contribute to consistently winning ball.
The 18-year-old Bailey might be the rawest of the bunch. But, more than any other player the Jazz have, he has a chance to become something great: an All-Star, perhaps. Maybe even an All-NBA player.
It’s not certain, to be sure. There were safer bets available at No. 5 on Wednesday night. None of them had Bailey’s upside. None of them, then, could provide as much hope as he brings.
“To live without hope is to cease to live,” the Russian novelist Fyodor Dostoyevsky once wrote.
With the league-worst finish, the tanking penalties, the disappointment of lottery night, and so much more, it would be fair to say Jazz fans might have been on the brink for the last few months.
Ace Bailey might just be their rebirth.
