Putting myself in the shoes of the Utah Jazz’s front office is a fun exercise.
It looks great when my predictions are right: I absolutely would have done nearly everything in my power to trade up for Donovan Mitchell in 2017, just as the Jazz did. I had vouched heavily for Desmond Bane in 2020, when the team reached for Udoka Azubuike instead. That turned out to be an accurate call as well.
But I’ve been wrong plenty, too, and I still think it can be educational. I preferred Elie Okobo over Grayson Allen in 2018, and Okobo played just two NBA seasons while Allen is a useful role player still today. Last season, I liked the Jazz’s selection of Cody Williams. He didn’t look the part of a No. 10 pick in his rookie year at all.
In response to the latter letdown, especially, I’ve turned to more numbers-based thinking to try to get things right this year.
Who should the Jazz take in Wednesday and Thursday’s two-day NBA Draft? Here’s what I would do, in a best-case scenario:
No. 5: V.J. Edgecombe, Baylor (or, more likely, Tre Johnson, Texas)
Oddsmakers say there’s an 11% chance that Baylor’s V.J. Edgecombe will be skipped over with picks No. 3 and No. 4, therefore being available for selection at No. 5.
In that case, I think the Jazz should draft him.
Edgecombe, the No. 4 overall high school recruit last year, came to Baylor and showed why he was such a high recruit. The 6-foot-4 guard wasn’t all that ball-dominant, but used his athleticism to impact the game in really significant ways: getting steals, getting blocks, and generally causing havoc on the court. Offensively, I think it’s fair to say he’s a player with a moderate floor and a high ceiling: He didn’t shoot that well in college (33% from 3, 38% from the midrange), and probably profiles as an off-ball player, but the athleticism allows you to imagine him developing into more.
To be honest, the package reminds me a bit of Donovan Mitchell coming out of his draft. He’s another guard who you probably wish were taller, but has the athleticism to grow into something more. Like Mitchell, Edgecombe is absolutely nailing all of his pre-draft interviews, including at the NBA combine. In short, he’s just all about putting winning first, great and rare to see from a 19-year-old.
I don’t think he’ll be Mitchell, who had one of the great rookie seasons ever. But I do think he has the fun competitive drive that Mitchell does, and will absolutely work his behind off to become as good as he can be in the NBA.
The stats models also generally really like Edgecombe, thanks to the high stocks and solid production offensively as a freshman.
(Jeff Dean | AP) Texas' Tre Johnson shoots during the first half of a First Four college basketball game against Xavier in the NCAA Tournament, Wednesday, March 19, 2025, in Dayton, Ohio.
But it’s likely Edgecombe won’t be available when the Jazz pick at 5. What then? I’ve been waffling between Tre Johnson and Kon Knueppel in this spot. Ultimately, my model prefers Johnson (though it’s worth noting most stat-based models, like Kevin Pelton’s, seem to prefer Knueppel). I think both are high-level off-ball starters in their NBA primes, with Kneuppel being more of a solid defensive presence and Johnson being more of a dangerous movement shooter.
I’ll take Johnson basically because I’m a little more confident in his floor, he might have a little bit of a higher ceiling, and the model tells me to.
Ace Bailey’s game scares me, his off-court demeanor doubly so. He wants to be a star in his rookie year, but his game is not in a place where I think he’ll be one. Jeremiah Fears is the model’s 72nd-ranked college basketball player last year — I can’t get to No. 5 with him. He’s just so raw in all ways but one: scoring.
No. 21: Asa Newell, Georgia
(Travis Heying | AP) Georgia forward Asa Newell (14) fights for a rebound against Gonzaga guard Nolan Hickman (11) during the second half in the first round of the NCAA college basketball tournament, Thursday, March 20, 2025, in Wichita, Kan.
My model has Newell as the No. 2 prospect this year, above much more highly touted names. So why is he possibly slipping to the 20s?
Well, the intel says that the NBA is concerned about his size: Is he a power forward, or a center? He plays more like a switchable five, but is the size of a power forward at just 6-9. He also doesn’t shoot well, making 29% of threes this year.
But I think the vision is there. His offensive production was impressive for Georgia last year — he just pops up in the right places and finishes so well. Defensively, he moves very well for either a power forward or a center, meaning he can play a role in many defensive schemes.
The comparison I’ve seen others make the most is Brandon Clarke, but others point to John Collins. I might see more Obi Toppin.
Look: I’m not buying Newell as the second-best prospect of 2025. That’s crazy. But I think with the movement, athleticism, and general basketball IQ, I’m buying him being a good role player for a long time, and that’s a great pickup with No. 21, should he fall to there. Originally profiled as a back-of-lottery guy, he’s slipped a bit since.
No. 43: Adou Thiero, Arkansas
(Marcio Jose Sanchez | AP) Arkansas forward Adou Thiero (3) defends against Texas Tech forward Darrion Williams (5) during the first half in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA college basketball tournament, Thursday, March 27, 2025, in San Francisco.
Man, do the Jazz ever need just a hustling defensive playmaker like Thiero.
Thiero is long: 6-6, but a 7-foot wingspan. He weighs 220. He moves with great athleticism all around the court. He gets steals, turns defense into offense. I suspect that if he were to play in Jazz summer league, fans would love every bit of his effort and passion on that end.
And then offensively ... well, he can drive a little bit and finish with authority. The man loves dunking and can dunk in all sorts of ways. He’s not good enough with the ball in his hands that you like him having it, but with the athleticism, maybe there’s room to get there.
The reason he’s a second-round pick is the shot. It’s pretty far away. He doesn’t shoot often, and only made 28% last year when he did. He doesn’t get to be an NBA player if he doesn’t improve that.
Still, I like taking second-round gambles on great defenders with great athleticism in hopes you can teach them to shoot. If it works out, like it did with Lu Dort, Toumani Camara, or Herb Jones, you have a very good player.
Thiero is generally projected in mock drafts to be selected between No. 30 and No. 40, so No. 43 would be a bit of a fall, but not a huge one. He’s No. 32 in the model’s projections.
No. 53: Javon Small, West Virginia
Oklahoma State guard Javon Small (12) runs into Creighton guard Trey Alexander (23) in the second half of an NCAA college basketball game, Thursday, Nov. 30, 2023, in Stillwater, Okla. (AP Photo/Mitch Alcala)
The primary downside of Javon Small is right there in the name: He’s just 6-1, with no special length. This will undoubtedly hurt him in a big way.
But he does have what might be the most effective skill for that size of NBA player: the pull-up or step-back jumper. Small takes a lot of those, and uses a low center of gravity to make space for himself to take them. It’s probably the hallmark of his game, but he also just produced at a very high level on both ends for West Virginia and throughout his college career, making a lot of big shots. He fights defensively, too, and gets a lot of steals.
Not every guy like this turns out to be T.J. McConnell or Jalen Brunson. Most, in fact, do not. But the model was impressed enough with the production to rank him 44th despite the age and height. I personally bet he’s not an NBA player, but as a guy likely on a two-way contract at the end of the second round, I think it’s worth finding out if anything is translatable.
