How can the Jazz do right on draft night? Well, their most important task of the evening is to nail the No. 9 pick.
But to examine what can go right for the Jazz, I think it’s worth looking at how things have gone wrong at that selection — and then try to avoid it. Yes, this is another episode of my unique articles relying on my friend’s life advice of: “Right when you’re about to suck, don’t.”
So we’re going to look at the No. 5 through No. 13 picks in the last 10 drafts (excepting the most recent draft in 2022, because those players still are so early in their careers). I’m choosing that range because of its close proximity to No. 9; I’m choosing the last 10 years for its status as a round number and that it’s the amount of time I’ve been NBA credentialed. And, unlike my usual work, we’re going to subjectively (rather than statistically) note what went wrong early in their careers.
Look, there are a lot of ways a player can disappoint in the NBA: the NBA is exceptionally hard! But goodness, “can’t shoot” derails a ton of players’ careers. It derails guards who can’t stay on the floor despite their definite plus skills in other areas (Kris Dunn, Frank Ntilikina, Killian Hayes, Emmanuel Mudiay, Dante Exum). It also derails bigger wings who for whom it prevents them from getting on the floor (Ziaire Williams, Jarrett Culver, Stanley Johnson, Michael Carter-Williams).
The other troubling aspect that stands out is players with low basketball feel — players that just don’t process the game fast enough to hang in the high-tempo NBA. James Bouknight, Jaxson Hayes, Cam Reddish, Marquese Chriss, Mo Bamba, Mario Hezonja, Dennis Smith Jr. are all examples of players who have some high-profile skills, but frustrated their coaches on a play-to-play basis. They miss rotations, or make a bad read offensively.
Rarer in the late lottery are the players who just didn’t have the tools to compete, in retrospect. Frank Kaminsky just couldn’t impact the game defensively inside or out; Nik Stauskas struggled to stay on the floor as a guard due to his defense. Trey Burke got swallowed up, just too small on both ends. Certainly Georgios Papagiannis just didn’t end up being mobile enough, at all.
So when I’m looking at who the Jazz should draft at No. 9, I’m looking for players with three big things:
1. Can shoot. Obviously, there are degrees here, but I need a prospect to be likely to be able to shoot it well enough to stay on the floor at the NBA level.
2. Are positive or neutral from a basketball feel point of view — they’re players who coaches will want to give minutes to rather than players who will make them grimace at every turn.
3. Can hang defensively. At the guard positions, being a sieve makes it hard to stay on the floor. At the four and the five, a variety of skills are needed to be at least adequate.
So let’s use that razor to approach the prospects in the Jazz’s range. HoopsHype’s draft predictor uses mock drafts from around the internet to predict the odds of each player being selected at each location. At No. 9, they have Anthony Black as the most likely selection, with a 39% chance of being taken, followed by Taylor Hendricks at 24%, followed by Jalen Hood-Schifino at 16%, Gradey Dick at 8%, and Jarace Walker at 4%.
What do I think about these players? Heck, let’s give them a score out of 10 at each aspect of our three-pronged evaluation process.
• I’m really, really worried about Anthony Black’s shooting. He has the best passing feel in the draft, and is a very good defender. But as a shooter? He’s hesitant, and then only made 30% at the collegiate level last season. He was a reluctant shooter in high school, too, taking just 22 in his senior year. His form is slow, a little clunky. Nor does he have top-tier driving ability — I really worry about the Michael Carter-Williams-esque downside.
The prospect he’s most often compared to, Lonzo Ball, did end up figuring out the jump shot, but not in time to help the team who drafted him, and the overall lack of burst offensively still limits Ball to sub-stardom.
Shooting: 3 | Feel: 9 | Defense: 8
• I like Taylor Hendricks more: he’s got a quick and effective jump shot, along with excellent free-throw shooting percentage. He definitely can hang defensively, with killer moments in and out on that end. His defensive feel is lauded.
Offensively, it’s more complicated. I think he’s good at some feel stuff — screens especially. His timing on pick and pops is great, and he’s dangerous in pick and roll. But he’s not great at decisions on when to shoot or pass, nor does he playmake for others right now. There’s some danger here, but the floor is high enough elsewhere that he’ll be able to contribute at least at a role player level without the ball in his hands.
Shooting: 8 | Feel: 6 | Defense: 9
• Jalen Hood-Schifino has great basketball IQ on both ends of the floor, and the positional size to match. He reminds me of Jalen Brunson when I watch him, but a bit bigger. Oh — except for that Brunson has been a 39% NBA 3-point shooter, while that’s a weakness of JHS’s. He’s farther along on the shot than Black is to my eye, but I still have real questions, and if it doesn’t improve, I think he’s a backup guard. I wouldn’t draft him at No. 9, but would consider it at No. 16.
Shooting: 5 | Feel: 8 | Defense: 7
• Gradey Dick can shoot, we don’t have to worry about that! Honestly, I think he has very good feel on both ends, too: he makes good connecting plays when teams sell out on the jump shot, and quick passes out of help scenarios. Defensively, he’s in the right spots most of the time.
Can he hang defensively in isolation, though? He only sort of did at the college level. I think the NBA is going to be really, really tough for him — along the lines of a Duncan Robinson or Doug McDermott. Those are good players to have, but not good lottery picks to take.
Shooting: 9 | Feel: 7 | Defense: 3
• Jarace Walker is a very good connector offensively with elite defensive smarts — he also definitely has size and length defensively to be able to play in the NBA. Some have compared him to Draymond Green defensively, and while he’s probably a step short of that, he’s still very good.
The shot was good but not great last year at Houston: 34% from deep on nearly 3 attempts per game. I don’t think it’ll be a weapon, but could well be adequate to keep him on the floor given everything else he does well. He’s slated to be drafted before No. 9, but I’d certainly select him if he fell that far.
Shooting: 5 | Feel: 8 | Defense: 9
In short, among those five players, I’d select whichever of Walker and Hendricks are available — though there are decent odds neither will be. If the Jazz thought they are likely to be selected before No. 9, I might look elsewhere.
Where to? I’d consider point guard Cason Wallace — while not in the Hoopshype Draft Predictor top five, Wallace has very good feel and is an excellent, pesky defender; he shot well last season from three before experiencing back spasms.
But I’d also consider moving the pick. Of course, you could look to move up to get one of those preferred players. But I’d also consider trading down or out of the No. 9 pick, too. The Knicks got three first-round picks for No. 11 last year, who turned out to be Ousmane Dieng — a young player who has struggled so far.
As Justin Zanik said after the season, the Jazz don’t have a timeline for contention. “It’s just a continuous timeline of us trying to make really good decisions,” he said then. The first step in making a really good decision: don’t make a bad one.
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