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The Utah Jazz have the league’s best point differential, the league’s best record, and have all season long. So why aren’t they favorites to make the NBA Finals?
Quite frankly, the biggest reason is that they don’t have the league’s superstars that typically lead to success in the playoffs. But there are also statistical weaknesses that the Jazz show that may well prove their shortcoming. Yes, you can do this with every team — maybe even to a greater extent than the Jazz. But if the Jazz lose in the playoffs, some combination of these reasons may well be why.
Sure, this may not be optimistic. But it’s still important to dig in to where the Jazz have been a little susceptible this season, and see how those disadvantages may play out in the playoffs.
1. The Jazz have been elite against opposing benches — but how many bench minutes will they see?
One of the Jazz’s trump cards this season has been the remarkable effectiveness of their rotation. When Rudy Gobert plays against opposing bench units in those quarter transition periods, the Jazz go on their defining 10-0 runs — overall the Jazz outscore opponents by 19.3 points per 100 possessions in those minutes.
Here’s the thing: Teams play their bench players for fewer minutes during the playoffs. Last year’s Nuggets team is a good example. Both Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic played about 32 minutes per game during the regular season. But during the playoffs — in which they’d ultimately defeat the Jazz — Jokic played about 37 minutes per game and Murray played about 40 per game. With teams needing their star players more, they play their bench players less, which minimizes the Jazz’s advantage.
Now, the good news is that Gobert will play more, and his minutes with starters have been quite good, too: 13.0 points per 100 possessions better than their opponents. But they’ll miss the opportunity to get cheap points against other teams’ benches.
2. The Jazz don’t force turnovers
The Jazz are the very worst defense in the league at forcing turnovers.
That’s not what they’re about. The Jazz don’t steal the ball from opponents, they force them into shooting the ball where they want: Rudy Gobert protects the rim, and their perimeter defenders stay hyper-aggressive on the 3, trying to stop that shot too. Defenders hardly ever gamble — the Jazz force opponents to take tough shots, then get the rebound afterwards. It’s propelled them to the third best defense in the NBA this season.
And yet, there’s a potential flaw. If opponents make tough shots, the whole scheme doesn’t work. The playoffs, notoriously, are filled with tough shot makers.
Is there evidence of turnover-forcing teams doing well in the playoffs? I wouldn’t say especially so. The Lakers were one of the league’s best turnover teams last year, but their NBA Finals counterparts, the Miami Heat, ranked 19th.
3. Defending the pick and roll
It’s fair to say that the biggest reason that the Jazz lost in the playoffs last season was their inability to guard Jamal Murray — and in particular, his pick-and-roll pairing with Nikola Jokic.
Fast-forward to this season, and the Jazz haven’t really added pick-and-roll defenders to the roster. According to Synergy Sports, Royce O’Neale stands in the 30th percentile of pick-and-roll defenders, allowing 0.95 points per possession on the play. Donovan Mitchell (1.01 PPP, 16th percentile) and Miye Oni (1.05 PPP, 12th percentile) haven’t done any better. It’s worth noting that O’Neale has taken the hardest matchups on the team, but, well, things don’t get easier in the playoffs.
The veterans Joe Ingles and Mike Conley have been much better, in the 0.80 PPP range. They’re using savvy to navigate the pick and roll, albeit different types. Conley’s able to maneuver quickly around screens, while Ingles uses his length and some veteran physicality to defend the play.
If that Nuggets series were today, Conley would likely spend much more time on Murray — I believe he’d have a better chance at success than O’Neale, who can be out-quicked when defending smaller guards. But in terms of personnel improvements? Well, the Jazz’s front office didn’t bring in any assistance.
4. Can the Jazz get a rebound when it matters most?
By-and-large, the Jazz have been an excellent rebounding team this season, ranking sixth in offensive rebounding percentage and second in defensive rebounding percentage. Some of that is because of just how good the Jazz’s defenders are at forcing tough shots, the kind that are less likely to lead to offensive rebounds.
But here’s one worrying stat: That defensive rebounding percentage falls off to just 26th in the league in clutch situations. And in last year’s playoffs, they ranked 14th out of the 16 teams in collecting defensive rebounds. I think it’s fair to worry about whether or not they can consistently rebound when athletic teams are sending their biggest, tallest, longest leapers at the rim.
5. The Jazz rarely get all the way to the rim
The Jazz have changed their shot distribution in a big way this season, making the most 3-point shots in NBA history.
45% of their shots come from 3-point range, No. 1 in the league this season. But despite that, the Jazz’s shot distribution is actually only the 12th best in the NBA. Why? Well, they rarely get all the way to the rim.
This season, the Jazz rank just 27th in the number of their opportunities that have come within four feet of the basket. Instead, the Jazz take a lot of flip shots, floaters, and bank shots that come just outside of that range, about 6-10 feet away. They make 45% of those shots, so it’s not too shabby, but it’s nowhere near as efficient as the 66% they get on real dunks and layups.
In other words, the Jazz, who are the No. 2 offense in the league, rely on their shots going in. That’s not a surprise, but it’s clear that sometimes just going and getting a bucket to stop a run isn’t as easy to do as it is to say.
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