For a moment, let’s accept the premise that the Jazz, who have less than a two percent chance of missing the postseason in most models, are in.
Who the heck are they playing?
While Quin Snyder may not feel that the playoffs are yet cinched, the reality is that the Jazz (45-33) are all but going to the postseason. The bigger question is who Utah’s first-round opponent will be, which is still a whole host of teams. It’s more likely at this point that the Jazz clinch a seed between 4 and 7, which would put them against anyone from the Pelicans to the Warriors — KSL.com’s Andy Larsen devised a program that has the Spurs as the frontrunner to face Utah (at 37.2 percent). But mathematically, only the Clippers (who would need the Jazz to fall out) are eliminated.
So here’s a quick list of potential Jazz playoff opponents in the first round, Utah’s record against them, and a brief sketch of the pros and cons of facing each team:
Houston Rockets (0-4) • Look at the previous results. Led by James Harden, the Rockets can put up points in a hurry from beyond the arc where it’s hard to stop them. Chris Paul is a menace who can get into the paint and kick out at will. Critics speculate maybe they aren’t as tough in the playoffs as they are in the regular season. But what if they are?
Golden State Warriors (2-1) • The reigning champs likely will be without Steph Curry for at least the first round, which puts a serious dent in their armor. But Kevin Durant still exists, and he’s still a nightmare, especially if the Warriors can switch him onto Rudy Gobert in isolation. Don’t sleep on three healthy All-Stars, and Golden State still can flip a postseason switch.
Portland Trail Blazers (2-1) • Damian Lillard has lit up the Jazz for an average of 32 ppg in three meetings. But while the backcourt really can light up, the front court is more variable. When focused, Jusuf Nurkic is a problem, but he has a tendency to drift. Others in the front court are less formidable or a few years away from getting there.
San Antonio Spurs (3-1) • The Spurs have a 31-8 home record and are 16-4 in first-round series under Gregg Popovich. It’d be an interesting battle of mentor vs. mentee with Quin Snyder. The Spurs do have undeniable vulnerabilities without Kawhi Leonard, but there’s a ton of grit and veteran presence on the team.
Oklahoma City Thunder (1-3) • The Thunder are very clearly a team that lacks cohesion lately, especially since an injury to Andre Roberson exposed defensive flaws. Still, it’s hard to say the Jazz would prefer a date with Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony. That trio is poised enough to potentially steal games in Utah (19-20 on the road).
Minnesota Timberwolves (2-2) • The last meeting went very well for the Jazz. Some of the young players, including Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns, are defensive liabilities, the bench is short and Minnesota, more than any other team, has no recent playoff legacy to speak of. But Jimmy Butler’s return and Towns’ ability to stretch Gobert out to the perimeter could lead to shootouts — not the kind of games Utah would like.
New Orleans Pelicans (3-1) • Anthony Davis racked up 10 blocks the last time he faced the Jazz and is one of the league’s toughest to guard. Jrue Holiday also has a knack for locking up Mitchell for stretches. But this is one of the least deep teams in the field, and Gobert is one of the few defenders who is somewhat capable of holding up Davis.
Denver Nuggets (2-2) • Not a big chance this matchup happens, but it might not be fun for the Jazz given the trouble Utah has had scoring on the Nuggets in the past. Trey Lyles also seems hell-bent on paying back the Jazz for trading him, even though he’s apparently happier (see below). But the core of the team (Jokic/Murray/Harris) is young and lacks playoff experience — not an insignificant edge.
Here’s the rundown of the last week of coverage of the Jazz:
STARTING FIVE
1. People have been questioning for more than a few seasons if Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors can play together. The evidence has mounted up lately that they can. But people still are questioning. We talked to both Jazz big men about it. [Trib]
2. A big turnaround happened for the Jazz on the road this season: The team has only lost once on the road since Jan. 24, in overtime to the Spurs. How did that happen? Tony checked in on that. [Trib]
3. It’s a safe bet that Mark Eaton is one of the tallest authors ever to have lived. Kurt Kragthorpe read The Four Commitments of a Winning Team and came away with some insights on Eaton and his memoirs. [Trib]
4. Tim McMahon is the latest convert to Utah’s Church of the Immaculate Rejection. He writes about Gobert’s strong numbers-based case to win Defensive Player of the Year. [ESPN]
5. I don’t usually include game recaps in the top five, but Jon Krawczynski had a lot of insight in Ricky Rubio’s time in Minnesota and why it didn’t work. It stung double then when the Jazz point guard posted five 3-pointers as he helped blow out Tom Thibodeau’s group. [The Athletic]
LISTEN IN
We asked an important question this week: Can Jazz fans and Sixers fans just get along? Aaron, Tony and I talk about the Rookie of the Year race, the Jazz’s struggles against some easy opponents and whether Dante Exum deserves more minutes in the latest episode of the Weekly Run podcast.
IN THE ROTATION
• There’s a difference between being a good fourth-quarter team and being a good closing team. The Jazz have had a tougher time of the latter. [Trib]
• As most of the Salt Lake media wanted to check out the Jazz locker room after the win over the Grizzlies, Kurt Kragthorpe headed to the Memphis side after an obvious tank job. [Trib]
• Tony had an interesting mailbag this week, including tackling what effect the loss of Derrick Favors in free agency could have on the Jazz. [Trib]
• TV critic Scott Pierce got a look inside Donovan Mitchell’s new web series on Young Hollywood. [Trib]
• Eric Woodyard was able to catch up with Minnesota’s Derrick Rose about his “stint” with the Jazz right after the trade deadline and before he was waived. [DNews]
• Only the most dedicated folks attended more than a handful of Salt Lake City Stars games, checking out what was going on with the Jazz G-League affiliate. Marcos Aragon was there for most of it, and he recaps the abrupt changes midseason that turned around the team. [KSL.com]
• You might’ve heard that former Jazzman Trey Lyles had some less-than-flattering things to say about his time with the Jazz. That was on the Road Trippin’ podcast with Richard Jefferson and Allie Clifton, with the relevant section at the 22:10 mark. Beware stories of three-hour practices — oh the humanity! [Uninterrupted]
• Tom Ziller looks at the lessons that can be gleaned from Utah’s success in the post-Hayward era. [SB Nation]
QUOTABLE
Ricky Rubio has made at least four 3-pointers in back-to-back games, which probably was not foreseen. But Quin Snyder said better than the form on his jumper has been the selection. Rubio’s decisions overall are improving.
“I think he was taking the right shots. There have been times where we have talked to Ricky about it where he needs to score when the play and the game presents itself to him, and it did tonight. A lot of his 3s early on were catch-and-shoot plays where he is just spacing. I think he didn’t just start settling for jump shots. He continued to try to make plays for other people. That is why he had eight assists. He could have had more if we would have finished better. I thought that Ricky was in a good place on the offensive end, but he’s our point guard, so defensively we all collectively need to focus on that end. Again, Ricky’s decision-making and shot selection were really, really good and he got rewarded for it tonight too.”
ODDS TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS?
As mentioned above, the Jazz are very, very close to clinching. But they have not yet clinched. So in Quin Snyder’s honor, we continue to offer odds:
FiveThirtyEight • 98 percent (fifth-best odds in the West)
Basketball Reference • 99.3 percent (fifth)
ESPN BPI • 98.2 percent (fifth)
UP NEXT
Ca-li-for-nia Lo-ve. The Los Angeles blitz continues with the Clippers on Thursday at home, followed by a date with the Lakers at Staples Center. The regular season finally wraps up(!) with a back-to-back — the Warriors (probably resting) at Vivint, then flying out to Portland for the season finale against the Trail Blazers.
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