For most of 2025, BYU’s AJ Dybantsa was probably not the player most likely to be drafted No. 1 overall in the 2026 NBA Draft.
That title belonged to Kansas guard Darryn Peterson, the butter-smooth scorer who has been compared to the league’s very best guards ever. Both ESPN’s (from Dec. 16) and The Athletic’s (from Dec. 4) latest mock drafts have listed Peterson as the No. 1 overall pick.
But Dybantsa has played so well in his first 14 games in a BYU uniform — coupled with a Peterson injury — that he’s making some real noise in pushing back up to the No. 1 overall slot. For example, on prediction market Kalshi, Dybantsa now ranks most likely to be drafted No. 1, standing at roughly 48%.
(Bethany Baker | The Salt Lake Tribune) BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) looks to pass the ball as Arizona State Sun Devils center Massamba Diop (35) defends during the game between the BYU Cougars and the Arizona State Sun Devils in Provo on Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2026.
He has shown every bit of the talent he was projected to have at the collegiate level, with already more highlight-reel contributions than you can count on your fingers or toes.
Here’s what’s stood out to me about watching Dybantsa so far:
Attacking the rim
When I watched Dybantsa play in high school, he found it relatively easy to get all the way to the rim against his defenders in all sorts of spacing situations. The result was the overall leader in dunks in high school basketball last season.
It’s been clear that he hasn’t found it as easy at BYU. The spins and crossovers that used to work to 100% dunk efficacy now only get his defender somewhat off balance. He’s really worried about losing the ball with his handle, and so frequently goes into a turnaround post-up stance when most NBA stars would probably go all the way to the rim.
There’s good news and bad news in how Dybantsa has reacted to that. The good news is that he’s shown off a really impressive mid-range scoring bag that’s “in rare air with some of the greats,” his head coach Kevin Young said. “He can just get to a spot, and there’s nothing you can do.” The second half of BYU’s game against UConn showed that: in the first half, he airballed some of these looks, but in the second half ... he was excellent.
The bad news is that making these tough shots is probably not the most effective scoring path. Instead, you’d hope he develops the handle a bit to get the counters to continue heading downhill, to turn a small advantage into the biggest one. His footwork in this respect is pretty good, but he doesn’t quite have the body positioning down to get protected layups all of the time.
I don’t want to make too much of this: Dybantsa still does get shots at the rim, and of the 113 college basketball players who have taken 70 shots close to the rim this season, he has the fourth-highest efficiency. Only about a quarter of those attempts are assisted, too, showing that he’s creating those opportunities largely himself. It’s an elite combination.
He is taking fewer threes than he did in high school as well, about 4.6 per game at 33% efficiency. I’ll be curious if either of those numbers improves in conference play.
Dybantsa’s foul drawing
(Rick Egan | The Salt Lake Tribune) BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) is excellent at drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line.
The easiest shot in the game is the free throw; Dybantsa gets to the free throw line.
Like the NBA’s best scorers, Dybantsa hunts fouls, and he’s very good at earning the whistle. He has the James Harden/Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ability to notice when his defender isn’t guarding him vertically and throws his arms upwards into the defender. Everyone in the world also knows he is talented at making jump shots, so he gets defenders in his airspace, where he can then bump into them if they’re even the slightest bit out of verticality.
I’m a big believer in players with high athleticism and high foul-drawing rates. Why?
The easy explanation is that free throws are efficient. Seeking those efficient shots, to me, is a good indication of basketball IQ. In order to be a good foul-drawer, you have to be pretty thoughtful about how you get your opponent off balance — then you have to be thoughtful about using it in the best possible way, even if its unlikely to lead to highlights.
Some players with high collegiate foul-drawing rates do it because they have no other way to score, they need to rely on the grift to succeed at the highest level. For players like Dybantsa with tons of talent, foul drawing indicates that they’re getting the extra element of efficiency that benefits their team. I’m strongly in favor of that.
Defensive approach
(Rick Egan | The Salt Lake Tribune) BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) guards Abilene Christian Wildcats guard Cbo Newton (5).
Dybantsa seems to have taken his defensive approach for the season from his fellow BYU students: Most of the time, he’s conservative but engaged.
Watching Dybantsa in person really allows you to see his overall approach to the defensive end. He gets to his assigned spot defensively, shifts well, and communicates with his teammates. By no means is he taking plays off.
On the ball, he gets into a stance, is active with his hands, and then, thanks to his length, can be hugely disruptive defensively.
These are all really great signs: he cares about the defensive end of the floor and is clearly coachable.
I do wish, though, that he simply did it more often. It feels like he’s playing that end of the floor a bit too safe right now, and leaving some potential blocks, steals, and other disruptions on the table. With his athleticism, he has the chance to be one of the best defenders in college basketball, but right now, he’s mostly just been a system player defensively.
Overall, you understand why Dybantsa isn’t the consensus No. 1 — but that’s as much to do with Peterson’s early signs before injury as anything else. Still, Dybantsa looks like a future NBA superstar, especially if he continues developing at BYU.