Provo • There is no more time left. Not if BYU is going to chase a third straight 10-win season — a goal that was always the most realistic for this group at the start of August.
The problem, as BYU sits at 4-2 at the halfway point, is that it’s going to take more than just wins for the Cougars to stretch across the double-digit marker. It is going to take a reversal of identity to keep this season on track.
BYU has gone from No. 12 in the country to unranked in the span of a month. Its best player, quarterback Jaren Hall, is dealing with a shoulder injury. And the best version of this BYU team, the one that Kalani Sitake keeps talking about, has only shown up for about seven quarters.
“I don’t think I’m sitting here happy that we’re at the record that we’re at now,” Sitake said. “But it has nothing to do with the results. [It] has more to do with, I’d like to see our guys playing the best we can every week. And that’s what I want to see.”
As the second half of the season starts with Arkansas this Saturday, let’s take stock of where BYU thought it would be, versus where it actually is at this point in the season.
Preseason expectation: BYU’s defense will be a top-50 unit in the country behind a run-stopping defensive line
Reality: Fiction
In the Sitake era at BYU, there had never been a year where the defense was ranked outside the top 50 in the country until 2021. After finishing 76th in the country last year, the offseason seemed entirely geared toward refining the defense.
The coaching staff talked about added depth, an improved secondary, an improved pass rush. But the biggest emphasis was on stopping the run. Everything else, they insisted, would fall into place.
Thus far, the opposite has happened. BYU’s rushing defense ranked 94th in the country last year, according to Pro Football Focus. Through six games this year, it has dropped to No. 116.
Teams have run for 200 or more yards on BYU three of its six games. Outside the Baylor game, every team is averaging over 3.5 yards per carry. Most recently, Notre Dame ran for 234 yards and 5.2 yards per carry.
“It’s definitely not what we expected,” defensive lineman Tyler Batty said. “We have fallen short of the expectations we had. And that’s been tough.”
The rest of the defense has struggled because of it. BYU’s team defense has graded out at No. 117 in the country, per PFF. That is next to UTEP and Fresno State.
Sitake has pleaded with his team to get stops and get off the field faster. “Get off the stinking field,” Sitake said two weeks ago. But the Irish were 11 of 16 on third downs. Most of it came on the ground.
Part of the struggle has been blamed on BYU’s health. In the game against Wyoming, for example, BYU was missing two of its defensive lineman as the Cowboys ran for 93 yards in the first quarter alone.
But at this point in the season, it seems BYU’s personnel is what it is. The identity of the defense is the players it has on the field. Plus, the depth of this group was supposed to carry it through those moments when players were down.
Can the run defense change in the second half of the year? Sure, it could. But the concerning part is that BYU has struggled with multiple different types of rushing attacks. Against Oregon’s speed, it looked overmatched. Against Wyoming’s throwback ground and pound attack, it struggled. Against Utah State’s option, no dice. So something would have to give for this to change course in the next two months.
Preseason expectation: Jaren Hall’s second-year leadership will mask most deficiencies in the offense
Reality: Truth
Jaren Hall has been BYU’s best player by a wide margin this year. And truth be told, the expectation was that he would be working with a veteran offense.
When people talked about Hall’s masking deficiencies, most thought that meant he would give BYU cover as the offense worked in veteran transfers like Chris Brooks to the fold.
However, Hall has had to glue together a much younger, less experienced group. Still, he has lived up to the preseason billing of being the cure-all for this group.
With wide receivers Gunner Romney and Puka Nacua out for most of the season, Hall has worked in a revolving door at receiver. His most targeted receivers this season have been Kody Epps, Chase Roberts and Keanu Hill. Romney is the ninth-most targeted player on the team. Nacua is the 10th.
But Hall has kept BYU’s passing offense over 250 yards in five of the first six games. The exception is Notre Dame, when Hall played with a hurt shoulder.
Hall’s importance extends beyond just his passing numbers. He has given cover to a suspect rushing attack too. Most thought Brooks would step right into Tyler Allgeier’s rushing production from last year — where he had 23 touchdowns and 1,600 yards. But Brooks has had a slow start to the year.
It has put even more pressure on Hall to take care of the football and make plays when the offense has stalled out.
The major concern right now is if Hall is not healthy the rest of the way, what will this offense look like? Sitake put his importance into perspective this week when asked about his injury status.
“He has no choice, he’s got to go,” he said.
Preseason expectation: A veteran group will be ahead of the learning curve, giving BYU an early advantage at the start of the year
Reality: Fiction
It is easy to spin defensive improvement or the emergence of a star quarterback during the dog days of August. Frankly, it is what you are supposed to do as a coach.
But this one felt like the no-brainer of all the major preseason tales. BYU was returning 85% of its production, the most in the country. It felt like a guarantee that it would have a decisive advantage in the early parts in terms of installing the offense, staying away from penalties and things that most college programs struggle with.
Turns out, that hasn’t been the case.
BYU has struggled with substitution errors. It has committed head-scratching penalties. It hasn’t tackled well.
These are the sort of errors that have started to wear on the team as time has gone on. It is partly why the identity of this group has been so hard to decipher.
Usually, older teams know who they are. Not this one, at least not yet.
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