South Florida was just the warm-up to this season.
BYU did everything you could ask for in Tampa. The Cougars even exceeded expectations in a game that was uniquely challenging for the season-opener.
But at the end of the day, South Florida was still a two-win team a year ago and has only beaten one FBS opponent in the last two years. Baylor on the other hand is a perennial contender for the College Football Playoff and the class of the Big 12.
With that being said, let’s set the stage for this week. BYU hasn’t played a top-10 team since 2018 when it played Wisconsin. It hasn’t hosted a top-10 team since 2017, when Wisconsin played the first game of the home-and-home in Provo. So it is hard to overstate how big this one is.
There are multiple ways you can put the gravity of this game into context.
First, let’s take the 2022 season angle. It wouldn’t be hyperbole to call this game the tone-setter for the entire year. If BYU wants to make a push to be ranked in the top 15 this year, and make a play for a New Year’s Six Bowl game, the Cougars have to win this game.
I see it similarly to the Utah-Florida game last week (and yes I hear the groans from BYU fans that we are broaching the topic of the Utes). But listen to this ... is it completely over if BYU loses? No, there are more opportunities (Oregon awaits in Week 3). But a loss makes the path to those goals that much more narrow.
The way college football works, especially for an independent; if you miss early chances to make statements, it is harder to climb back into the conversation. And this might be BYU’s best shot to win a big game. It is at home, early in the season.
BYU has talked about being disrespected. It’s talked about wanting to break through after two, 10-win seasons. Well this could be a season-defining game.
We could also look at this game as a gauge for Big 12 readiness. That will certainly be a national storyline.
Baylor is predicted to win the Big 12 this year. It made it to the Sugar Bowl last year. You can’t get a better measuring stick for BYU to see how it would fit in. And this 2022 team is much more experienced, and likely deeper than one BYU will enter the Big 12 with. Most of the main contributors will leave after this year. So if BYU’s depth is exposed this year, it is a big red flag for the program’s immediate future in 2023.
So let’s buckle up, it is a big one.
Jaren Hall played a lot, wonder why
I wrote about halfway through the game on Saturday that Jaren Hall could have been taken out after the third quarter.
BYU had a huge lead, and what more does Hall need to prove? Keep him healthy for Baylor.
But here is why I think it happened. We know Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney are not 100% healthy. Kalani Sitake said Romney was close to playing against USF, but he didn’t even make the trip to Florida when BYU left on a Thursday. And Nacua exited the stadium on crutches on Saturday.
So BYU needs to test its depth in that receiver room. Hall stayed in the entire game, largely on the field with the next three receivers that would start a game: Keanu Hill, Chase Roberts and Brayden Cosper. Kody Epps also saw significant time.
Offensive coordinator Aaron Roderick wasn’t just giving those reps out for free, or putting his quarterback in harm’s way with a backup offensive line for nothing. I think he wanted to see more out of the chemistry from that group.
In the second half, those three did improve. After a slow start, Roberts was much more involved and ended up leading the team in receiving. Hill had a key drop and a touchdown. Epps made his first catches since 2020.
It was not a coincidence that BYU nearly emptied the bench at receiver. Terrance Fall even caught a ball, a player who might not have made the trip if Romney was on the roster.
It is something to monitor going forward, who will be Hall’s main targets come Saturday?
Defense isn’t in the clear yet
Listen, the defense was not bad on Saturday. They completed the task at hand, as I wrote about in the Sunday analysis.
But it was USF we are talking about, and there were a fair amount of cracks that were slightly exposed. There were a number of times South Florida missed open receivers that could have been big gains, even touchdowns.
South Florida also missed quite a few opportunities to convert first downs (thinking mainly of Xavier Weaver dropping a pass on a fourth-down conversation late in the first half). Sitake admitted the technique was sloppy in the secondary late in the game. They looked tired, the depth didn’t look great.
So we will see what happens against Baylor. The Bears put up 69 points in their first go-round this season, albeit against Albany.
Special teams
How hard is it to kick it out of the end zone one?
Simple question, and Sitake had a simple answer: “Maybe we will give it a shot.”
All we know was the kickoff return team was bad. It gave up an 89-yard return for a touchdown to start the second half. Also, it never once stopped USF before the 25-yard line — where the ball would be placed if it just kicked it out of the end zone.
Frankly, though, I don’t think is a trend. The fix is simple: Don’t keep kicking it to Baylor on Saturday.
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