I noted in the summer of 2015, when Billy Donovan became Oklahoma City’s coach, how he kept reappearing in my life: “I have no doubt that whenever the Jazz again make the playoffs, they’ll run into the Thunder.”
I missed by one year.
So the Jazz will face the former point guard whom they cut twice in the 1980s, providing me plenty of material for a story about how I’ve kept meeting Donovan over the years. For now, with the series starting Sunday in Oklahoma City, here are the four elements I’ll be watching:
Coaching
Every analysis of this series will give the coaching edge to the Jazz’s Quin Snyder. Donovan’s record with the Thunder is 150-96 in three seasons. Snyder is 139-107 during that period. Snyder clearly has done more with his personnel than Donovan has, especially this season when both teams finished 48-34.
The question is how much Snyder and his staff can exploit Donovan. They’ll have to do so because the Thunder have the star power of Russell Westbrook and Paul George.
Home court
It is time for me to acknowledge that the NBA norms have changed, even in the past 10 years, and home-court advantage is not what it once was. The Jazz have frustrated me by winning only about two-thirds of their home games the past two seasons. That used to be the standard for a .500 team. The Jazz have gone 22-19 and 20-21 on the road in two years. Those records would have translated to 55-plus wins in the old days.
In any case, this series could resemble what happened in the first round between the Jazz and Los Angeles Clippers last April, when the road team won 5 of 7 games. The Jazz should win once at some point in Oklahoma City. The question is whether they can win three home games at Vivint Smart Home Arena, where they were 1-4 against the Clippers and Golden State last spring.
Donovan Mitchell
The rookie guard made himself the biggest story of the Jazz’s season for the right reasons. The promotional prodding of Adidas made him too big of a story this week, with the sweatshirts carrying messages about whether Philadelphia’s Ben Simmons is really a rookie in the race for an NBA award. It was fun when Mitchell wore one sweatshirt to the game and the Jazz ripped the Warriors. It got old when he modeled another version in Portland and made 6 of 23 shots in a loss to the Trail Blazers.
Mitchell is revered around here, and he’s deserving of that treatment. But starting now he just needs to go out and play.
OKC’s shooting
Oklahoma City cooperated in October, when the Jazz beat the Thunder 96-87 in Salt Lake City. Westbrook, George and Carmelo Anthony combined to make 5 of their first 25 shots, and the Thunder scored 19 points in the game’s first 20 minutes.
The Thunder later made a run in the first three minutes of the fourth quarter that cut the Jazz’s lead from 17 points to seven. That’s what OKC is capable of doing. The Jazz responded that night. They’ll have to do so repeatedly to win this series.
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