Someone warmed me about this phenomenon, the first time I traveled to a Super Bowl site for interviews with players and coaches in the buildup to the game: You’ll fall in the love with the underdogs.
That remains true, 13 years after that first Super Bowl experience involving the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles.
Thanks to the cautionary advice in 2005, I stuck with my preconceived pick of the Pats, even after almost being swayed to Philly. How did that work out? I forecasted New England 24, Philadelphia 20. Actual score: 24-21.
So you might think that in advance of Sunday’s Super Bowl rematch from ’05, I would reflect on that experience in Jacksonville and go with the favored Patriots in Minneapolis. Of course not.
In my 14 years of Media Days — or “Super Bowl Opening Nights,” as they’re now known — and subsequent interviewing opportunities during the week, what always resonates is the combination of confidence expressed by the underdogs and the respect shown to them by the favorites. It’s inescapable. It’s as if I can’t hear anything else.
And that’s how I’ve come to pick the Eagles, after being in the Twin Cities. It helps that those guys are more lovable than the Patriots, who have hogged the Super Bowl stage for too long. And the Eagles are not some upstart team that sneaked into this thing. They went 13-3 in the regular season. If they had quarterback Carson Wentz, they would be viewed as having a much better chance of beating New England.
Here’s the thing: In playoff wins over Atlanta and Minnesota, Nick Foles did everything that Wentz could have done by passing for a total of 598 yards with nearly 80-percent accuracy and no interceptions. If he plays at that level again Sunday, Philadelphia will win.
That’s no guarantee of that, obviously. Foles could regress, just as Minnesota’s Case Keenum did in the NFC championship game. The Patriots will gear themselves to stop the run and make Foles beat them. Can he do it? Yes, if the Eagles’ run-pass option scheme is effective, making the linebackers and secondary hesitate.
On the other side, the equation is simple. The Eagles have to be able to pressure New England quarterback Tom Brady with a standard four-man rush. Brady is a blitz-beater, able to expose coverages if he has any time at all to throw. But if Philadelphia defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz can deploy seven players in coverage and still hound Brady, the Eagles will succeed. They held Atlanta and Minnesota to an average of 8.5 points, so it seems unlikely that the Patriots will have a breakout game offensively.
I know these things, having spent a couple of days hanging out at the Mall of America. In a unique Super Bowl setup, the team hotels and the media center were in the mall, with interviews conducted in huge storage areas.
The mall was built on the site of the old Metropolitan Stadium. That’s where the Minnesota Vikings played when I started cheering for them as a South Dakota resident in the late 1960s. Minnesotans can only imagine what a hometown Super Bowl appearance would have been like for the Vikings. The Eagles spoiled everything with a 38-7 rout in the NFC title game.
The Super Bowl will be closer, but the Eagles will interrupt the Patriots’ dynasty. For the sake of the old days in Jacksonville, I’ll say Philadelphia 24, New England 21.