Kragthorpe: October alters football outlook for Utah, BYU

Hundreds of Utah fans lingered on the Rice-Eccles Stadium field late Saturday night, savoring the moment. Then again, those people might be back there once or twice next month.

The Utes ended probably the best October in the football program's history with a 24-21 victory over USC. That win leads them into a November filled with big possibilities, including home games against Oregon and Arizona.

As of September, who would have imagined Utah vs. Arizona as the Pac-12 South's title-deciding game?

Just as inconceivable: BYU's October downturn making a possible win at Middle Tennessee State feel like an achievement. The Cougars have topped USA Today's Misery Index, a weekly gauge of fan bases' dissatisfaction in college football.

Utah is No. 18 in the AP Top 25, occupying the exact spot BYU held when September ended. The Cougars' October was not their worst ever, only because there were five Saturdays in October 1949, when they were blown out five times during an 0-11 season. But this one was bad enough.

As for Utah State, nobody's sure how to categorize an October during which the Aggies won three games and lost three quarterbacks.

Utah coach Kyle Whittingham posted three wins in October 2008 during a 13-0 season. Yet factoring in the Utes' brief history in the Pac-12 and the questions surrounding the program in 2014, this October is the most meaningful month of his tenure. The Utes (6-1) went from not receiving any votes in the AP Top 25 to No. 18, and they remain in play for the Pac-12 championship and even a College Football Playoff bid.

Utah's unbeaten teams of '04 and '08 barely climbed in the rankings during October. Ron McBride's 1994 team went from No. 25 to No. 9 with four October wins, but Whittingham's latest rise is just as significant, considering the competition — and how the Utes won those three games.

In the previous three seasons, Utah went 4-11 vs. Pac-12 South teams and 3-10 in conference road games. In October, the Utes won twice on the road and beat two South rivals.

The irony is a defense that otherwise carried the team lost a lead in the fourth quarter of each game. And a struggling offense delivered a long drive for the go-ahead points in every game, plus two overtime touchdowns at Oregon State after the defense allowed a tying field goal in regulation.

The USC game revealed an element of destiny, regarding Whittingham's contract quest. I'm a believer in this stuff. He's clearly meant to coach this program, after what unfolded in October — especially, Saturday night.

The Trojans were one play away from completing a victory with an epic, clock-killing drive. USC receiver Nelson Agholor took a pitch on a fourth-and-2 play, tried to turn the corner and stepped out of bounds a yard short of the first-down marker, with no Ute defender credited for a tackle. That gave Utah one last chance, and quarterback Travis Wilson responded by leading the Utes to the winning touchdown with eight seconds remaining.

That was just another clutch drive in October, directed by two different quarterbacks (with considerable help from running back Devontae Booker). In each game, the Utes had compiled fewer than 280 total yards before suddenly going 60-plus yards, while trailing.

Those finishes were reminiscent of a couple of Utah's games in '08. The current team failed to answer after losing a fourth-quarter lead against Washington State in September, but October was another story.

Now what? ESPN's Football Power Index gives Utah a 0.7 percent chance of winning every remaining game. Based on that probability, if the Utes played this five-game sequence 1,000 times, they would sweep Arizona State, Oregon, Stanford, Arizona and Colorado seven times.

That's asking a lot, obviously, but it also is difficult to imagine Utah's season crumbling. So Whittingham and his staff have responded very well in his 10th season, and they'll be rewarded.

In Provo, Bronco Mendenhall's 10th year produced BYU's worst October since 1993, a month that has left him struggling to define his job.

This was supposed to Mendenhall's season of rejuvenation, prolonging his career. Turning over the game-day defensive schemes to Nick Howell would free him to manage the program and spend more time with his players, as once worked wonderfully for Gary Andersen at Utah State.

The defense has collapsed, though, even prior to quarterback Taysom Hill's season-ending injury that came when BYU entered October with a 4-0 record. Four losses have left the Cougars reeling. The defensive numbers are not as bad as in 1993, when BYU allowed averages of 54 points and 579 yards in four defeats.

But those losses were to UCLA, Notre Dame and two future Super Bowl/Grey Cup quarterbacks, Fresno State's Trent Dilfer and Utah State's Anthony Calvillo. BYU's struggles were largely written off to injuries that year. Defensive coordinator Ken Schmidt remained in place, under LaVell Edwards. It helped that BYU shared the Western Athletic Conference title that season, advancing to the Holiday Bowl.

Independence has altered BYU's definition of a successful or acceptable season. Four losses already spoiled the year. Mendenhall faces some tough decisions about Howell and his own role in the defensive operation after calling the schemes in Friday's 55-30 loss at Boise State. He's never intended to stay at BYU forever, and this kind of season could accelerate his timetable.

For now, the Cougars have some work to do, just to become bowl-eligible. Their sixth win may not come until Nov. 22 vs. lowly Savannah State. If fans rushed the field in mock celebration that day, that would cement BYU's Misery Index ranking.

kkragthorpe@sltrib.com

Twitter: @tribkurt