Ben McAdams and Evan McMullin proclaim themselves pragmatists when they say Democrats should not run any candidate against Sen. Mike Lee.
Let’s examine how different things would be with a hypothetical McMullin. The critical vote in the Senate falls to Manchin and Sinema, neither of whom are up in this cycle. Democrats need to flip at least 2 seats from Republican to Democrat to change that dynamic.
Let’s put numbers to this. Say against midterm norms of the party in the White House losing seats, the Democrats hold their 48 seats and 2 independents that caucus with the Democrats and the Republicans win 49, with McMullin upsetting Lee. Even if McMullin supports filibuster reform nothing changes because the vote is 49 (46 Democrats, 3 independents, including McMullin) – 51 (49 Republicans plus Manchin/Sinema). Consequently, no voting rights legislation passes.
If just one current Democrat loses his or her seat and McMullin wins, the Senate stands at 49 (47 Democrats and 2 independents) – 50 Republicans and 1 McMullin, who has said he won’t caucus with either party. In that case, Sen. McConnell is majority leader, the same outcome as if Sen. Lee were to win.
Impeachment? That requires 67 votes. Unless McMullin convinces 16 Republicans – only 7 voted to convict in January 2021 – that still won’t happen.
On the other hand, McMullin opposes the Affordable Care Act and more. He’s the same vote as Lee on tax cuts that can be passed via reconciliation. Lee voted for McMullin for president in 2016! McMullin is no different than Lee in substantive outcomes so long as the critical votes are Sinema/Manchin.
With the distinction, then, between Mike Lee and Mike Lee-lite, we need a Democrat’s voice, Kael Weston’s voice, in the Senate race.
Brent Liddle, Salt Lake City
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