Voices: Utahns will need to be extra vigilant in 2026 to avoid falling prey to conspiracy theories

Note to readers • This is part of a series of forward-looking predictions for 2026. Read more.

People have always believed conspiracy theories. One of the earliest known such theories had to do with who started the fire in Rome in 64 A.D. during which Nero famously fiddled.

Over time, the prevalence of conspiracy theories has ebbed and flowed. Since the advent of the internet age, however, we have found ourselves in a cycle of increased belief in these kinds of theories.

Our interest in conspiracy theories goes back several decades, but we have been tracking and writing about conspiracy theories in earnest since 2017. Over that time, we have seen great volatility, and this year will not be an exception. Our prediction for 2026 and beyond is that, due to recent technological advances, conspiracy theories will spread ever more rapidly and become more difficult to resist. It will also become more challenging to disentangle some of these theories from alternatives supported by reliable and compelling evidence.

The term “conspiracy theory” gets bandied about a lot these days, and people don’t always mean the same thing by it. Some, for example, consider that any theory that happens to be about a conspiracy counts as a conspiracy theory. This definition doesn’t comport with the way most people use the term. To be a bona fide, according to Hoyle, conspiracy theory, a number of elements must be present. First, a conspiracy theory must provide an explanation of an event or set of circumstances that is counter to the prevailing narrative. Second, it must involve a plan between two or more parties operating in a secretive manner. Third, it must involve either a lack of compelling evidence or evidence to which very few other people have access. Finally, the evidence that is offered for a conspiracy theory provides an alternative to the prevailing narrative while explaining why that narrative must be wrong.

Conspiracy theories are seductive. One explanation for that fact is that conspiratorial beliefs satisfy primal human psychological urges, motivations and biases. For instance, humans have a fundamental desire for group membership. One of the ways of determining who is in the group is by specifying who is outside of it. These theories, with their tendency toward good and evil dichotomies, make the in-group/out-group lines easier to draw. Unfortunately, conspiracy theories often lean heavily on xenophobia or fear of what is different and unknown. As a result, members of minority groups are often cast as the “shadow actors” in conspiracy theories that gain traction.

These theories are also attractive to people because they are empowering. It feels good to be the person in possession of knowledge that few other people have. When a person believes a conspiracy theory, they may view themself as an important member of an elite group, which gives them a confidence boost.

All of this is not to suggest that conspiratorial thinking is a problem at the level of the individual. Problems that are primarily social have individual components. In climates in which conspiracy theories run rampant, society has failed in its responsibilities to effectively educate its citizenry, to find ways of combating misinformation and, through its policies and programs, to enfranchise citizens and provide them with a sense of their own dignity and self-worth.

The seductive quality of belief in conspiracy theories is unlikely to change. Emerging technology makes the temptation considerably more powerful. We predict that three dominant advances in technology, in particular, will combine with the new attention economy to make the conspiratorial climate much worse: AI, other algorithms and deep fakes.

Artificial intelligence can manufacture “evidence” of various kinds. Deep fakes have the potential to put any words in any person’s mouth. Conspiracy theorists can now present AI-generated visual evidence, news stories and testimonials, etc. that appear compelling at face value but are, in fact, nefariously created or even hallucinated. The outrageous nature of this “evidence” will attract clicks, likes, shares and comments. This new internet economy doesn’t value truth, it values attention. Political actors peddling conspiracy theories used to be the main source of belief in such theories. Now, people also have to worry about their beliefs being manipulated for the purposes of ad revenue and data collection.

In 2026, we predict that an increase in the number of conspiracy theories will lead to further distrust in expertise. This will undermine the public credibility of medical experts, scientists, other academics and the media. Conspiracy theories will be used to demonize minority groups including immigrants, people of color and members of the LGBTQ+ community.

Inextricably linked to these concerns, and perhaps most troubling of all, conspiracy theories will be used to undermine the stability of our democracy.

Utahns will need to be vigilant to avoid falling prey to conspiratorial belief. To do this, they’ll need to: Beware of the perils of in-group/out-group dynamics, consciously develop their skills pertaining to information literacy in online environments and expose themselves to a wide range of perspectives while remaining intellectually humble.

Richard Greene is a Professor of Philosophy at Weber State University, where he also serves as Director of the Richard Richards Institute for Ethics. His recent work is on the overlap between philosophy and popular culture, aesthetics, the theory of knowledge, and conspiracy theories.

Rachel Robison-Greene is an Assistant Professor of Philosophy at Utah State University. Her recent work is on topics related to ethics and technology.

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