Voices: Utah isn’t ready for ‘The Big One’ — but we can be

Salt Lake City, and most of Utah’s population, sits on one of the largest normal faults in the world, the Wasatch Fault. According to a 2016 report, there’s a 57% chance of a magnitude 6 or greater earthquake striking the Wasatch Front in the next 50 years.

Even though the Wasatch Fault makes most of the headlines when talking about “the big one,” a magnitude 7 earthquake or greater, there is the possibility of having earthquakes in the magnitude 6 range anywhere in Utah.

As a local seismologist, I believe that the 5.7 magnitude Magna earthquake in March 2020 should have been our wake-up call. It damaged buildings, knocked out power and closed the Salt Lake City International Airport. Thankfully, there were no fatalities. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, kids were not in school at the time, but there was considerable damage to Westlake Junior High School. Therefore, it is plausible that if the 2020 Magna earthquake had happened at another time, there could have been many injuries and possibly fatalities.

We should see the 2020 Magna earthquake as a preview of what a larger quake could bring. If a magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake hits — something entirely plausible — the damage could be catastrophic: collapsed buildings, crippled infrastructure, overwhelmed hospitals and thousands of displaced residents.

The Wasatch fault can produce a magnitude 7+ earthquake. Compared to the 2020 event, a magnitude 7.3 earthquake is about 40 times larger than a magnitude 5.7 and releases about 250 times more energy.

Our vulnerability lies not just because of the active fault, but in our outdated buildings. Remember, earthquakes don’t kill people, collapsing buildings do. Many homes, schools and historic structures were built long before modern seismic codes were enacted in Utah. In particular, unreinforced masonry buildings (URMs) — older brick buildings constructed without steel reinforcement — are prone to collapse even in moderate shaking. More than 140,000 of these still stand along the Wasatch Front and throughout Utah. A State of Utah report notes that at least 130 school campuses include URMs where at least 72,000 Utah children spend all or part of their school hours.

Salt Lake City has taken some commendable steps. Since 1990, updated building codes require seismic reinforcement. The city’s “Fix the Bricks” program offers grants to retrofit certain homes, and some school seismic evaluations are underway. But the pace is too slow. At current funding levels, it would take decades to make even modest progress.

Here’s what we need to do now in order to protect Utahns.

We need elected officials to get on board.

First, we need political will. Preparing for an earthquake doesn’t win headlines or election campaigns — but our elected officials must prioritize it anyway. The Utah Legislature should increase funding dramatically for seismic retrofits. Cities should be allowed — and encouraged — to require seismic evaluations as part of real estate transactions or renovations. Without public investment, the burden falls on private owners, many of whom cannot afford costly upgrades. We can start by reinstating the Utah Seismic Safety Commission (USSC), which was disbanded by the Utah Legislature last year. In its last few years of existence, the USSC was instrumental in getting two of the vulnerable water viaducts that provide potable water to Utah residents retrofitted to be earthquake resistant.

We need more education.

Second, we need broader public education. Earthquake preparedness isn’t just about buildings — it’s about people. Do you know what to do when the ground shakes? Do you have an emergency kit, food or water to last 72 hours? Community-wide drills, like the Great Utah ShakeOut, help but they need to be expanded and made more accessible. Preparedness should be woven into school curricula, workplace trainings and neighborhood organizing.

We need to modernize infrastructure.

Third, we must modernize our infrastructure. Earthquakes will hit more than homes. They’ll affect bridges, water lines, hospitals, power grids and communication networks. We must ensure that essential services can withstand a major quake and recover quickly. Every infrastructure project — from water treatment upgrades to light rail extensions — should factor in seismic resilience as a top priority.

We’ve seen what happens when government ignores these risks. New Orleans after Katrina. Haiti in 2010. In both cases, natural hazards collided with fragile systems and years of neglect. The result was tragedy — not because of the storms or quakes themselves, but because of the failure to prepare.

The good news is that Salt Lake City still has time. We have the science. We have the engineering know-how. And we have a community that cares. What we need now is urgency and investment.

A major earthquake will not be a surprise, but we should all remember: The more we are prepared, and the more state and municipal governments are prepared, the less chance there is of an earthquake on the Wasatch Fault turning into a catastrophe.

Jamie Farrell is a research associate professor in the department of Geology and Geophysics at the University of Utah and a seismologist at the University of Utah Seismograph Stations. He received his B.S. in geology at Utah State University and both his M.S. and Ph.D in Geophysics at the University of Utah. He has lived along the Wasatch Front for 25+ years. The views expressed here are solely those of the author and not those of the University of Utah.

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