David Burns: Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has changed everything, except Republicans

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is Europe’s 9/11. After the horrors of the Second World War, and the passing of almost 80 years of relative peace (the Balkan Wars of the 1990s excepted), Europeans believed there would never again be a land war in Europe. But that chimera was shattered in the early morning hours of February 24, when Russian paratroopers dropped from the sky outside Kyiv, missiles rained down on multiple cities and tanks rolled across the frontier.

So much has happened so quickly. Russia’s military has underperformed, Ukraine’s military has over-performed, the European Union has dusted off its never-before used mutual defense treaty, Germany is rearming, NATO has been brought back from the near-dead, the United States is leading with a consultative model that is a template for future cooperation with allies and the Chinese don’t know which way to jump.

Ukrainians are resisting Russia’s invasion to keep the independence they declared in 1991, which was the fifth attempt in the 20th century to declare an independent Ukrainian state. So far, based on the emerging stalemate on the ground, the Ukrainian nation should remain intact. Whereas Putin wanted to entirely eradicate even the notion of Ukrainian nationhood, his war will accomplish the exact opposite: accelerate Ukrainians’ choice to look West, their identity embedded in Europe not Russia.

The sacrifices of Ukraine’s soldiers and citizens have added to the world’s vanishingly limited stock of genuine examples of a people fighting more or less alone for their freedom from tyranny. And like the British who, in 1940, also fought on alone, if Ukraine lasts a thousand years, people will also say, “This was their finest hour.” Their nation’s fighting spirit is captured in five words: “Russian warship, go f*** yourself.” We will not forget the names of bombed-out Ukrainian cities: Kherson, Mariupol, Kyiv, Kharkiv and Mykolaiv.

But there is also a real sadness that envelopes this heroic Ukrainian story. We in the West are providing Ukrainians with vital war materials, but they are otherwise very much alone in this fight. Only their blood is being spilled, because we can’t risk the outbreak of World War III. Besides higher gas prices, nothing more is asked of us. We watch the war unfold on television from the comfort of our homes, far from the battlefields and shelling of civilians.

And yet we have a clear stake in the war’s outcome: nothing less than the survival of liberal democracy, because if Putin wins in Ukraine, then the West’s mutual defense is called into question everywhere. It’s deeply unfair that Ukrainians must fight this war alone.

We don’t yet know the outcome of the war, but we do know that, whatever happens, Russia will emerge weaker, poorer, and more isolated; like North Korea, a pariah nation, at least until Putin departs. The war will accelerate Russia’s demographic decline (deaths have exceeded births since the 1990s) and increase its dependency on China.

It will lose the war. Because the blitzkrieg attack aimed at decapitating Ukraine’s leadership and taking Kyiv failed, and because Russia lacks the manpower and resources to conquer and pacify all of Ukraine, it has already lost the war. The questions now are how many more Ukrainians will die or be injured and how much of their cities will be reduced to rubble before a negotiated settlement is finalized? Until then, Ukrainians should continue to do what they do well: send Russian soldiers home in body bags.

China’s fingerprints are all over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It green lighted the unprovoked attack, with the goal of weakening the United States and its alliances. Its responsibility for the death and destruction in Ukraine is second only to Russia’s. Like Putin, China’s Xi Jinping overestimated Russia’s military power, and underestimated Ukraine’s resistance, NATO’s unity and the world’s reaction.

There is clarity in this. China is presently trying to burn down the postwar order and replace it with an autocrat-friendly system that is antithetical to Western values. But it obviously doesn’t have the intellectual and moral preparation to reshape the international system without the use of violence. So much for China’s vaunted long game.

The crisis in Ukraine confirms the United States is in Cold War II with China, which leads a rat pack of other bad actors in what Anne Applebaum of The Atlantic calls “Autocracy Inc.” Cold War II is a continuation of global historical trends. According to China expert Robert Daly, “Just as many historians now view the two world wars as a single conflict with a long intermission, we should see the two Cold Wars [U.S.-Soviet and U.S.-China] as related phases in the evolution of world order in the post-colonial and global eras.” Translation: We continue to pass through modernity, making Cold War II more or less inevitable.

This is a contest of systems — liberal democracy vs. autocracy — to shape global order. China wants the playing field to be about which system can make the most stuff. While the production of stuff is important to both sides (economic output is how wars are won), Cold War II is really a contest of morals that confer the prestige and credibility needed to shape the global system.

There’s opportunity here for the United States, but we have a bruised and battered democracy. Our fitness to reassert ourselves globally and lead in Europe and Asia depends on whether we can undergo a meaningful healing process in our polity. That will require strengthening the political center, and moderation on the part of both parties.

But Republicans, you need to go first because Putin’s war has changed everything, except you. You would still rather make the “libs” cry than criticize Putin. You still watch Tucker Carlson on Fox News spout anti-Ukrainian nonsense. Most of you still believe that Joe Biden stole the 2020 election. You claim the January 6 insurrection was “legitimate political discourse.” And most important, you still follow Donald Trump, who divides and weakens us, thus inviting our enemies to embark on adventures such as the invasion of Ukraine.

David Burns has degrees in history and law. He lives in Salt Lake City.