Scott Anderson’s Aug. 19 commentary regarding UDOT’s proposal for a massive transportation project in Little Cottonwood Canyon is commendable for supporting the benefits of outdoor recreation to Utah. He does not, however, accurately represent either UDOT’s proposed gondola option nor its relative benefits compared to UDOT’s other preferred option: express buses.
Anderson states that Little Cottonwood is being destroyed by “exponential growth over the past few decades” and that it will be “lost” unless UDOT erects a gondola from the base of the canyon to Snowbird and Alta Ski Resorts. Similarly, UDOT’s proposed solutions are predicated on a 47% increase in winter traffic by 2050. Neither premise is supported by past traffic data nor by ski industry projections.
A report by the Mountain Accord, an organization of local governments and stakeholders, presented data showing that winter traffic in Little Cottonwood grew less than 1% from 2004 to 2013, even while northern Utah’s population grew by 22%. Their data showed winter traffic actually decreased in 7 of 10 years.
Far from forecasting a 47% increase in downhill-ski traffic, the ski industry fears a reduction in skier visits by 2050. A National Ski Area Association study showed a decrease of 1.3% in the Rocky Mountain region in the last decade and a 14.5% decrease nationally. Skier-days dropped and will likely continue to drop because: 1) climate change is shortening the season and reducing the snowpack, and 2) baby boomers retiring from the sport and are not being replaced in by millennials, the demographic who will dominate skiing in 2050. The West’s snow fall has declined by 41% since 1982 with 34 fewer days in the snow season.
A study by the Park City Foundation found that declining snowpack will cost 272,000 skier-days by 2050, as a low estimate, and 664,000 skier-days as a high estimate. Another study by the University of Colorado forecast a 25%-30% drop in visits to Snowbird and Alta by 2050. In terms of demographics, an article in the Journal of the National Ski Area Association shows that millennials are skiing fewer days per person than boomers did and have already peaked. Little Cottonwood could well see static to declining ski traffic by 2050.
The great uncertainty in projecting traffic in 2050 means that UDOT’s bus option is highly desirable. It gracefully scales in both cost to taxpayers and in impact to the canyon. Buses can be added incrementally or removed as actual traffic trends dictate. Express lanes can be delayed until the actual changes in traffic are observed. In contrast, the gondola is sized from day one to the maximum projected capacity for 2050 and incurs the maximum cost and environmental impact on day one of operation.
Anderson also claims that the gondola would have less environmental impact because UDOT would not build snowsheds with the gondola option; however, UDOT plans to build snowsheds with both its bus and gondola options. Without snowsheds, during road-closure days, skiers will pile up in long lines at the gondola, standing outside in the cold waiting to get on. Anderson considers the snowsheds unsightly but does not consider a massive gondola unsightly even though it will be North America’s largest and longest with towers up to 262 feet tall.
We agree with Anderson that outdoor recreation is essential to Utah’s development. But the more than half-billion dollars proposed for the gondola will serve only downhill skiers and two commercial businesses at Snowbird and Alta during a few months of the year. Those tax dollars can be put to better use serving more Utahns over the entire year and over a wider region than just Little Cottonwood Canyon.
UDOT should pick an option that scales in cost, capacity and environmental impact when and if needed and ensure that our tax dollars are spend for the benefit of the majority of Utahns.
Robert Douglass
Robert Douglass, Sandy, is a small business entrepreneur and former vice president and technical director for SAIC and Leidos Corporations. He was a manager at the the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA) and an adjunct professor at the University of Utah.
Bruce Wood
Bruce Wood, Sandy, is retired, having served for 12 years as CEO of Schiff Nutrition International, a Salt Lake-based NYSE listed manufacturer of nutritional supplements, after spending 25 years in senior management at Nabisco Brands Inc. He frequently skis and hikes in Little Cottonwood Canyon, where he has resided for 22 years.
Michael Marker
Michael Marker, Sandy, is a management consultant who specializes in business process improvement and work system redesign. Previously, he held positions as production manager for Procter & Gamble, director of organization development for Libby Owens Ford and adjunct faculty at the University of San Francisco. He served in the U.S. Army with the Directorate of Organization Development Experimental Command working to improve military leadership.