No matter who you are, keeping up with election night returns can be overwhelming. There’s a lot of information coming all at once and it’s hard to get a good read on what it all means.

So I’ve put together a midterm elections user guide of sorts to get you ready to watch Tuesday night’s results like a pro — or at least give you a sense of the six most important things that I’ll be paying attention to after polls close.

Utah’s voter turnout before the polls close

As my colleague and data expert Andy Larsen has documented, turnout has been pretty lackluster so far and that has been compounded, it seems, by slow ballot processing.

Some context is important here, however.

Midterm elections never see the turnout that we see in presidential years. So don’t expect to see the 90% turnout from 2020 or the 82% in 2016. We shouldn’t even expect the 76% turnout from the 2018 midterm because, keep in mind, there were three ballot initiatives — medical marijuana, Medicaid expansion and independent redistricting — that drove people to the polls. Realistically, I’d expect about 2/3 of voters to cast ballots.

We are able to keep track of who has voted early. The early voters were leaning older and more Republican than normal, but toward the end of the past week, the margins tightened as the younger, more progressive voters’ ballots started showing up.

It’s also worth remembering that — at least in the race at the top of the ticket, Sen. Mike Lee vs. Evan McMullin — big Republican turnout is not necessarily a death knell, since McMullin is hoping to win as many as a third of those GOP voters.

Georgia goes first

Democrats are going to lose the U.S. House of Representatives. That has been clear for a while now and the only question is by how much. So our focus is going to be on the U.S. Senate.

Polls close in Georgia at 5 p.m. our time, so I’ll be watching the initial tallies in the race between Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and GOP challenger Herschel Walker. The polls have this race close — which is kind of baffling, given Walker’s repeated missteps, exaggerations, lies, and, oh yeah, allegedly having paid for multiple abortions, despite supporting a near-total ban on the procedure.

So I think this stands as a litmus test for raw partisan turnout in a swing state. Pay particular attention to the Atlanta suburbs. When Democrats turned the state blue two years ago, it was big turnout in those ‘burbs that pushed them over the top.

Every race and every state is different, but if this one turns Walker’s way, it could be the first signs of a Red Wave, a flipped senate seat and a big night for Republicans.

Pennsylvania next

Polls close in Pennsylvania an hour after Georgia and we’ll get early indicators of where the race stands between Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a Democratic, and celebrity GOP doctor Mehmet Oz. Fetterman had created a little breathing room in this race, but it has closed down the stretch.

Watch the early numbers from Erie County in the northwest tip of the state, Luzerne County in the northeast end, and Northampton on the east coast. Those are considered the “pivot” counties in the state and will give us an early indication if Democrats have a chance to flip a Republican seat.

While you’re at it, don’t ignore New Hampshire, where incumbent Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan had looked like a comfortable favorite over Donald Bolduc, but recent polls show a close contest — one that, if Democrats end up losing, would make a Republican-controlled Senate pretty much inevitable.

Polls close in Utah

We’ll get our first numbers just after 8 p.m. Mountain time.

Obviously, the first race I’ll be looking at is the Mike Lee versus Evan McMullin matchup. I suspect McMullin will need to be ahead by a couple of points in the first dump of ballots if there’s any chance. Also, pay attention to what percentage of that first batch comes from Salt Lake County. If it makes up more than 35%, the county is overrepresented in those early numbers and the later results will trend toward Lee.

Then I’ll be looking at the numbers in the Salt Lake County Council race between Republican Richard Snelgrove and state Rep. Suzanne Harrison. Harrison, a Democrat, will need to be running strong in Sandy and Draper and not getting blown out in the southwest end of the valley. The same general rule holds true in the other two high-profile county races — the district attorney race between Sim Gill and Danielle Ahn and the clerk contest between Lannie Chapman and Goud Maragani.

After that, my attention will pivot to one of the more fascinating races: Republican write-in candidate Steve Handy against Republican Trevor Lee. Running a write-in campaign in Utah is a massive challenge, but Lee’s inflammatory rhetoric has driven a lot of money to Handy’s cause. He’s driving around in a tiny Smart Car with a giant pen that says “Write In Steve Handy” on top and sent 10,000 normal-sized pens with the slogan on it to voters in the district.

Nevada and control of the Senate

Barring any upsets in New Hampshire, Arizona, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Ohio or the like, I agree with the folks at FiveThirtyEight that the party that wins two of the three races in Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada will emerge with control of the Senate.

So Nevada could be the last shoe to fall. This race has been tight between former attorney general Adam Paul Laxalt and incumbent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, but Laxalt has opened up a lead in the latest polling.

Keep an eye on Washoe County or, better yet, get on Twitter and follow Jon Ralston of The Nevada Independent for the best analysis around.

Tidying up

We won’t have final results Tuesday night and some of these races may be too close to call, so don’t get impatient.

That said, I’m interested in seeing how willing some candidates are to concede defeat — particularly if Maragani loses the Salt Lake County’s clerk race — or if we get nonsensical claims of fraud.

There are several Utah House races to keep an eye on. The best races for Democrats are Fatima Dirie’s challenge to Rep. Judy Weeks-Rohner in West Valley City; Lynette Wendell’s rematch against Rep. Jim Dunnigan, who won in Taylorsville by 84 votes last time; and Alan Anderson’s bid against Rep. Steve Eliason, who won by 23 votes last time around in Sandy.

Republicans have their sights set on Jill Koford knocking off Rep. Rosemary Lesser in Weber County and Quin Kotter upsetting Rep. Elizabeth Weight in a revised Magna and West Valley district.

* * * * *

A personal note

“You should write a column about me.”

My friend Matt Seare told me that a lot. Usually, it was at the tail end of a couple beers and a bunch of jokes that had everyone rolling and none of which can be printed in a family newspaper.

I pumped him for cooking tips, offered up my couch when the Vikings lost and swore I would beat him at cornhole, next time. Maybe I could write about how he beat me again, he suggested, but that wasn’t really news.

Most of all, every time our little messed up family was together, he would tell every one of us how much he loved us. And everyone’s day was a little better because of him.

“So when are you going to write about me?”

I guess it’s today, even though it wasn’t how I would have wanted it. Last weekend, while Matt was watching a University of Minnesota Gophers football game, he wasn’t feeling well and decided he needed to go to the hospital. It turns out, he suffered a massive stroke, far, far too young.

Naturally, Matt was an organ donor, so somewhere some lucky person got a used liver and someone else an absolutely incredible heart.

This has not been easy.

It’s never easy to lose someone special, and Matt was special. He was special to his love, Leah, his precious daughter, Olivia, and our tight-knit family. And he made sure, without question, we always knew that we were special to him.