So close.
The Republican-led push to repeal Utah’s ban on gerrymandering is a whisker from the statewide signature goal — coming up just 86 shy as of Wednesday’s tally — and appears a lock to cross the threshold Thursday.
But whether proponents will meet the signature targets in the 26 required senate districts is still very much up in the air — and it could be weeks before there is a clear answer.
According to Wednesday’s update by the lieutenant governor’s office, Utahns for Representative Government had 140,662 verified signatures in hand out of the 140,748 needed statewide. The group had also met its goal in 14 of the state’s 29 senate districts and needs to lock up a dozen more.
That won’t be the end of it, however.
Opposition groups are actively trying to convince voters who signed the petition to submit a form to their county clerks to rescind their support. There is a 45-day knock-off window starting from the time an individual’s name shows up on the lieutenant governor’s list of verified signatures during which the voter can remove his or her name.
Thus far, about 3,600 Utahns have done just that.
If the repeal effort is kept off the ballot by removals, it would not be the first time. In 2018, the Count My Vote initiative met the targets in 26 senate districts but fell below the required threshold after a successful removal campaign.
UFRG appears well short of its goal in three Wasatch Front senate districts — districts 13, 14 and 9 — meaning the entire effort hinges on three others — districts 7, 8 and 15. It would have to meet the goal in all three in order to make the ballot.
Currently, the group is about 83% of the way to the goal in both senate districts 7 and 8, both in Davis County. They need 908 more signatures in Senate District 7 and 872 in Senate District 8.
As of Wednesday, Davis County Clerk Brian McKenzie said his office has 140 signature packets to count, out of roughly 450 that were submitted on the Feb. 15 deadline.
If UFRG meets the requirement in the senate districts, it could still be weeks before Utahns know if the margins will survive the withdrawal effort and be on the November ballot.
On Monday, UFRG filed a lawsuit alleging that Better Boundaries, the group opposing the repeal effort, is breaking the law by sending voters a pre-filled removal form and a stamped envelope to mail in the form. Utah law prohibits paying anyone to remove their signature and the lawsuit argues the 73-cent stamp constitutes an illegal bribe.
The suit accuses the repeal opponents of a “coordinated scheme to nullify a citizen initiative through an industrialized signature removal campaign,” and asks the judge to order that the forms be set aside and not processed until there is a ruling on whether they are legal.
Better Boundaries denies any wrongdoing.
The larger fight centers on how Utah’s political boundaries are drawn.
In 2018, voters approved Proposition 4 — also known as the Better Boundaries initiative — which established an independent redistricting commission, created neutral criteria for drawing political maps and banned partisan gerrymandering.
The Legislature tried to gut Proposition 4, but the Utah Supreme Court ruled that undoing a voter initiative essentially nullifies the citizens’ constitutional right to make law through ballot measures.
UFRG is aiming to use the initiative process to wipe out Proposition 4. If successful, it would not impact the congressional maps in 2026, but could let the Legislature redraw the 2028 boundaries as it sees fit.