Washington, D.C. • Rumors are swirling around Capitol Hill about an impending mass exodus of House Republicans following a number of surprise retirement announcements over the past few months.
With estimates about the number of Republicans ready to leave the House hovering around two dozen, NOTUS asked more than half of the House Republican Conference — over 120 members — whether they were considering another run for Congress or a run for the exits. While most lawmakers emphatically declared their intentions to run again, several mysteriously declined to commit to seeking reelection.
In Utah, Republicans are facing a game of musical chairs after a judge discarded the previous congressional boundaries, ruling they were unlawfully gerrymandered, and installed a new congressional map with one Democratic-leaning district and three safe Republican districts.
With four GOP incumbents — Blake Moore, Celeste Maloy, Mike Kennedy and Burgess Owens — there could be an odd member out or two Republican incumbents facing off in a primary next summer. But all four said they’re looking ahead to 2026.
Moore, who has represented most of northern Utah since 2023, indicated he will seek reelection.
He jokingly thanked NOTUS for not reaching out to his wife first. But then, he added, “Actually, if you want to call her and find out if I’m running, that’s great too.”
When asked if he would run again, Rep. Burgess Owens acknowledged the uncertainty back home but expressed enthusiasm ahead of 2026.
“We have some things going on in Utah right now trying to figure out how we’re gonna do redistricting,” Rep. Burgess Owens told NOTUS. “But we’re on board.”
Kennedy also said he will run for reelection and Maloy told NOTUS she is “not planning on retiring.”
Others were less certain.
“We haven’t made that decision yet,” Rep. Troy Balderson of Ohio said, adding that he was “probably” going to run again. A spokesperson for Balderson reached out hours after NOTUS’ story published to clarify that the congressman is “100 percent” running for reelection next year.
“I’ve made a decision,” Rep. Harriet Hageman of Wyoming said when asked whether she’d be running for governor or for reelection in the House. “An announcement will be made soon.”
A number of House Republicans have already made big announcements. Eighteen have declared they are running for Senate, governor or their state’s attorney general. Another seven, including Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington, former Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Michael McCaul and a well-known ally of President Donald Trump, Rep. Troy Nehls, announced earlier this year that they would not run again.
That’s already an uptick from last year. Forty-five House members — 24 Democrats and 21 Republicans — did not run for reelection in 2024. This election cycle, the number of retirements is expected to surpass that: 43 representatives have said they won’t run for reelection in 2026 — and so far, the Republicans’ 24 retirements are outpacing the Democrats’ 19.
“There’s a lot of them bailing,” Rep. Dale Strong, who said he is running again, told NOTUS.
Asking lawmakers whether they are running for reelection is a delicate matter.
Some House Republicans indicated that they were just as interested as reporters in who the next to announce their retirement might be, with several asking NOTUS reporters what they were hearing.
Members of Congress often want to be in control of their own retirement announcement.
Take Rep. Dan Newhouse of Washington state. When NOTUS asked Newhouse on Tuesday afternoon if he would run again, he said, “We’re still thinking about it.” By Wednesday morning, the congressman announced he was planning to retire after this term.
And yet, the many equivocating answers NOTUS heard from House Republicans about their plans seemed to confirm the prevailing narrative that many GOP lawmakers are at least considering leaving Congress after this term.
Rep. Mark Amodei told NOTUS, “It’s Dec. 16. Yes, I plan on running.” He then paused and added the caveat, “Ask me in 60 days.”
Because every state operates on different campaign timelines, Amodei, who represents a district in Nevada, has to wait until early March to file. Meanwhile, Texas’ filing deadline was Dec. 8, which has forced many prominent Texans to announce their retirements.
Rep. Nicole Malliotakis laughed at a question about her reelection, saying, “At the moment, yes,” she would run again. Rep. Frank Lucas said he would be “incredibly surprised” if he was not a candidate in 2026. Rep. Vern Buchanan told NOTUS that so far he plans to run for reelection, but is waiting to talk about it with his family to know for sure.
When asked whether he’d run for reelection, Rep. Daniel Webster, 76, told NOTUS “that’s a good question” and then shrugged.
Webster refused to clearly say whether he was committed to running in 2026, saying, “I’m raising money” when asked about his plans. (Webster has raised less than $81,000 each quarter this year, which are low numbers for an incumbent who, in years prior, raised well over $100,000 per quarter.)
As speculation mounts about whether some of the oldest members of the House GOP will run again, several, including Rep. Hal Rogers, 87, Rules Committee Chair Virginia Foxx, 82, and Rep. Mike Simpson, 75, confirmed to NOTUS that they plan to seek another run.
“Not this year,” Rep. John Carter, 84, told NOTUS of a potential retirement, after saying “I am running.” Rep. Jim Baird, 80, who is facing a primary challenge this year, also told NOTUS he planned to run again.
Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole said he is “certainly preparing like I’m planning to run.”
Redistricting, and the specter of redistricting, in several states has also thrown the shape of several Republican districts — and the incumbent’s reelection prospects — into question.
Rep. Doug LaMalfa of California initially seemed to dodge the question, asking NOTUS four times, “What do you hear?” when approached about his plans for 2026. Finally, he said, “I always was going to run either with [Proposition] 50 or without [Proposition] 50,” a ballot initiative that facilitated California’s mid-decade redistricting.
Proposition 50, LaMalfa continued, “makes me more invigorated to run.”
The dozens of Republicans who told NOTUS they would run again offered familiar explanations for why they would want to hang around the chaotic lower chamber. Multiple lawmakers, for example, said they wanted to stay to gain higher seniority status in the House.
“My seniority number is climbing tremendously, why would I leave?” Rep. Mike Bost, the chair of the House Veterans’ Affairs Committee, said while laughing.
Similarly, Rep. Glenn Thompson, the chair of the House Agriculture Committee, said, “When I was first elected, my seniority was 433 out of 435, and it’s 76 now.”
“There’s always turnover!” Thompson added.
Rep. Joe Wilson, 78, said he understood why NOTUS was asking him about potentially retiring, given that this week he is celebrating his 25th anniversary in the House. However, he said he is more “energized” than ever to run again.
“My No. 1 son is running for governor,” Wilson said. “And so, I definitely want to be on a ticket.”
For some, they feel like they have to stay to fulfill a higher calling.
“I’ve got to save the country,” Rep. Diana Harshbarger, who has said she is running again, told NOTUS.
Note to readers • This story was reported and published by NOTUS and was shared with The Salt Lake Tribune as part of a partnership.
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