When a judge ruled last month that state lawmakers needed to redraw Utah’s gerrymandered congressional maps, she thrust the state into the national spotlight – and once new maps are made official, a flood of out-of-state money could find its way into the Salt Lake media market.
With already tight margins in the U.S. House of Representatives, a possible swing of even one of Utah’s four GOP-safe congressional seats could have major implications for the partisan control of Congress. And political operatives on both sides of the aisle say they are closely watching developments in the case as they prepare for the 2026 midterm elections.
“With redistricting going on across the country, Democrats are going to flip as many seats as possible,” CJ Warnke, the communications director for the House Majority PAC, which supports Democratic efforts to take back the House, said during a recent interview.
“If this is a competitive race,” he added, referring to the possibility of a Democratic-leaning district in Utah under the new maps, “we’re going to do what is needed to win. Our business is winning competitive congressional races. If it’s a competitive district, we will be involved.”
Jason Chaffetz, a former U.S. House Republican from Utah, said, “Undoubtedly, there’s going to be a flow of money if the Democrats think they can somehow squeak out a victory.”
“Every seat matters,” he told The Salt Lake Tribune, “but it really matters when the margins are so tight.”
(Chris Samuels | The Salt Lake Tribune) Former U.S. Rep. Jason Chaffetz arrives at a funeral for former U.S. Rep. Mia Love at the University of Utah Institute of Religion in Salt Lake City, Monday, April 7, 2025.
But whether Utah’s new congressional maps will indeed include a competitive district for Democrats remains an open question.
On Monday, the state Supreme Court ruled that the current maps will, for now, not be reinstated. Utah Third District Judge Dianna Gibson, in her original decision, gave state lawmakers until Sept. 25 to draft new maps and then called for 10 days of public comment. Then, the state must adopt the new boundaries in a special legislative session by Oct. 6, which the court will then review and approve or choose boundaries submitted by other parties for use in the 2026 election.
Gibson’s order comes amid an ongoing and closely-watched redistricting fight across the United States, as red and blue states redraw their own congressional boundaries in an attempt to secure more seats in Congress. The gerrymandering arms race started in Texas, where, at the behest of President Donald Trump, the GOP-controlled state moved to give House Republicans five additional seats from the Lone Star State.
In a statement released last month immediately following the ruling in Utah, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., cheered the order, but did not commit to investing in the state.
“Donald Trump and House Republicans know they cannot win the midterms based on their abysmal governing record, so they are actively attempting to rig the outcome before a single vote is cast. … I am grateful for the bipartisan group of plaintiffs and community advocates who have been relentless in the fight for fair districts in Utah since 2017 and hope a compliant map will be put in place with no further delay,” DelBene’s statement read in part. “The DCCC will continue to work everyday to ensure a House of Representatives where all citizens are represented equally.”
Several national Democratic operatives who work on U.S. House races told The Tribune many left-leaning groups are in a “hurry up and wait” moment while the courts decide the future of Utah’s federal political boundaries. One of the Democrats, who was not authorized to speak on the record, said they expect national spending in the area if the district leans between about five to ten points Democratic. One benefit to potentially investing in a Salt Lake-area race, the operative added, is that the Salt Lake media market is relatively inexpensive.
Chaffetz, who served in the House of Representatives from 2009 through 2017, said he didn’t like Gibson’s ruling, and thought it should be up to the state legislature to draw the congressional maps. “But it is what it is,” he said, “so it will be fascinating to see how it turns out.”
“House races [in this state] are usually so lopsided in their final results that we generally don’t see much money coming to Utah compared to other races,” Chaffetz added.
(Briana Scroggins | Special to The Tribune) U.S. Senate candidate Kael Weston speaks during the Utah Democratic Convention at Cottonwood High School in Murray on Saturday, April 23, 2022.
But this time around, he said, “This will be much bigger than what we’re used to seeing for House races. … There’ll be national money on both sides.”
Chaffetz, too, noted that the Salt Lake media market is “still fairly inexpensive compared to the national stage,” but said that for now, he was waiting to see the maps to get a better sense of the midterms fight to come.
Once the maps are in place, however, the question of candidates remains: Which Democrats will enter the race?
And one Democrat, who’s run several congressional races in Utah, is already willing to say the race for the party ticket shouldn’t be a coronation — and that he is thinking about running again.
In a text message, Kael Weston said that he was “seriously considering” running — “for many damn good reasons.”