John Curtis and Spencer Cox lead in last-minute poll ahead of Utah’s 2024 primary elections

Curtis has a 20 percentage point lead in the U.S. Senate race to replace Mitt Romney. State Rep. Phil Lyman trails Cox 42% to 55%, with a nearly 5% margin for error.

Utah Gov. Spencer Cox is leading challenger state Rep. Phil Lyman in the race to be the Republican nominee for governor, according to a poll of likely GOP primary voters released Monday.

Cox is up on Lyman by 13 percentage points — 55% to 42% — in the poll conducted by Noble Predictive Insights. The survey of likely GOP voters was conducted June 20-21 and has a margin of error of 4.7%.

Meanwhile, U.S. Rep. John Curtis has a commanding lead in the four-way race for the U.S. Senate nomination, receiving 48% of the support, well ahead of Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs with 28%, former House Speaker Brad Wilson with 9% and Jason Walton with 6%.

Both Lyman and Staggs do better among men and in the southern and rural areas of the state, said David Byler, chief of research at Noble Predictive Insights.

“The southern, rural stretches of Utah were a problem for Cox in the 2020 gubernatorial primary, so it’s no surprise that both Cox and Curtis post some of their worst numbers there,” said Byler. “But both Curtis and Cox posted better numbers in the other regions of the state and have a real lead.”

Staggs is performing much better among the most ardent supporters of former President Donald Trump, beating Curtis 55% to 22% among those who consider themselves “Trump-first” Republicans. The disparity is even larger in the gubernatorial race, with Lyman leading Cox among the “Trump-first” Republicans, 80% to 19%.

“In most Republican primaries, Trump’s endorsement essentially guarantees victory,” said NPI Chief of Research David Byler. “But in Utah — a uniquely conservative, yet Trump-skeptical state — the situation is different. Trump’s endorsement helps, but it’s not a golden ticket.

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