It’s the ‘Year of The Tax Cut, Again,’ but what does that even mean? Robert Gehrke weighs in.

“It’s the year of the tax cut — again.”

That has been Senate President Stuart Adams’ mantra since before the opening day of the 2022 Legislative session.

It’s akin to: “I think the Harlem Globetrotters will have a good year.”

Yet here we are. Even though Utahns are paying the lowest portion of their income toward state taxes in half a century and needs in state agencies that are becoming critical — like a desperately short-staffed prison system — it has been clear for months that the Legislature was bound-and-determined to slash taxes. Again.

On Wednesday, a Senate committee approved an across-the-board $160 million reduction to the state’s income tax rate, moving the rate from 4.95% to 4.85%. It’s the centerpiece of the Republican tax cut plan.

Meantime, a pair of proposals to ease the burden on working-class Utahns — by either sending families a grocery tax credit, as Gov. Spencer Cox has suggested, or eliminating the grocery tax entirely, as advocates for the poor are proposing — seem to be in real trouble.

“I think there’s still some discussion on it but I have to admit, neither body seems too energized by it,” Senate Majority Leader Evan Vickers, R-Cedar City, told reporters Wednesday. “I know the Democrats are very energized by it, the Republicans are not.”

Even energized Democrats won’t get you very far. Sorry, guys.

But Vickers suggested there might be some additional tax measures coming out of the House — another $40 million in cuts that might do more to help struggling households.

One proposition, HB53, sponsored by Rep. Walt Brooks, R-St. George, would let Social Security recipients receive more benefits before they have to start paying tax on the income. The threshold for a single filer would go from $25,000 to $31,000 and the threshold for a couple would go from $50,000 to $62,000.

The other component that seems to have Republican support in the House is an Earned Income Tax Credit proposal being sponsored by Rep. Mike Winder, R-West Valley City. The EITC is a federal program targeted at low- and middle-income working families. The amount varies depending on filing status and household size, but under the federal credit a household making up to $57,414 can get a credit of up to $6,728 — and it’s refundable, meaning if the amount is more than the tax liability those households could get a check.

Winder said his bill would provide a state credit of 15% of the federal amount, although it wouldn’t be refundable (I presume because the GOP lawmakers are philosophically opposed to giving money to the working poor).

“Income tax cuts are great,” Winder said, “but we really need to do a little more to help low- and moderate-income families who are especially hard-hit right now and EITC would be a great solution to helping those families.”

Brooks’ part of the package would cost $15 million, Winder’s $25 million. Add that to the $160 million income tax cut and you’ve got your $200 million in reductions this session.

So are the grocery tax proposals DOA? Seems likely, but proponents of the alternate plans aren’t throwing in the towel.

Nate Talley, chief economist for the Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget, said the advantage to the governor’s grocery tax credit plan compared to an EITC is that the Cox’s gets money into far more households because of its higher income threshold and Cox envisions a benefit paid out quarterly, instead of annually under the EITC.

It’s also refundable, unlike Winder’s EITC, meaning those on food stamps would still benefit.

Bill Tibbitts, deputy director of Crossroads Urban Center, said the advantage of just eliminating the sales tax is it provides immediate relief to households struggling to make ends meet. And, unlike refundable credits like the governor’s, where a quarter of those eligible don’t apply, the benefit is automatic every time.

My thoughts: Making Winder’s EITC refundable would get the most money to people who need it the most. Matthew Weinstein, director of state priorities for Voices For Utah Children, said that, if it’s made refundable, 91% of the total tax relief would go to Utahns below Utah’s median income.

With Cox’s grocery credit, 62% of the $160 million in tax relief would go to the bottom half of the income scale. Eliminating the grocery tax would send 43% of the relief to the lower half. Just 13% of the income tax cut would go to Utahns below the median (obviously, because they pay less).

“Not all tax cuts are created equal,” Weinstein said.

We could make the EITC fully refundable simply by raising the sales tax on candy and soda or rescinding a few of the bevy of the other sales tax breaks lawmakers identified three years ago.

That might be a blow to the dirty soda and Reese’s addicts. But it would be the best way to alleviate the burden on Utahns who haven’t shared in the benefits of a booming economy and bring people out of poverty.

Unfortunately, there’s no reason to believe that that’s a goal shared by most of the Republican Legislature.

Correction: Feb. 1, 4:40 p.m. • This column has been updated to correct the cost of the Social Security tax cut and the EITC, which were transposed, and to correct the percentage of the grocery tax break that would go to households below the median income.