Washington • Utah isn’t the biggest prize up for grabs on Super Tuesday.
It’s not even the 12th biggest prize for the Democratic presidential hopefuls vying to snatch up as many delegates as they can on their march to the nomination.
But, given the crowded field of candidates seeking momentum or battling to keep it, the state’s contest matters as shown by the rare campaign visits, the stream of ads and the excitement of voters casting a ballot in what is still a wide-open race.
That could change Tuesday when 14 states, including Utah, plus American Samoa and Democrats living abroad, offer up about 1,357 delegates toward the 1,991 needed to clinch the nomination.
Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent who is the front-runner for the Democratic nod, hopes to capture an overwhelming lead. And his team is counting on Utah, which gave most of its 29 delegates to Sanders four years ago, to help.
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, too, is gunning for Utah’s votes as he pours millions from his own fortune into a late bid for the nomination. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg are also in the hunt.
Former Vice President Joe Biden, who has struggled to gain a foothold with primary voters, appears a long shot, along with Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar. That’s not stopping Klobuchar from holding a rally in Salt Lake City on Monday morning. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii spent last weekend in Utah, but polls suggest she’s flown under the radar of most voters.
“The fact that we’re part of Super Tuesday has really changed the dynamic,” says Jeff Merchant, chairman of the Utah Democratic Party.
That’s different from previous cycles, when Utah’s primary landed later in the spring, too late in many ways to be part of the game. Last presidential election, Democrats held party-run caucuses in late March that proved somewhat chaotic, with some voters put off by the long lines at polling places.
“It matters more that Utah’s been moved up from later in the cycle to the early Tuesday slot,” says David Magleby, a longtime political science professor at Brigham Young University. “Some Utah voters are actually receiving candidate mail, which hasn’t been around for a long time and more campaign visits, I think, than we had before they moved the date. So, yeah, I think it feels like we’re more relevant.”
Even if Utah isn’t offering the most delegates, candidates are paying attention to the state.
Bernie or bust?
While Hillary Clinton eventually won the Democratic nomination four years ago, she soundly lost the Utah primary to Sanders, who picked up nearly 80% of the vote and most of the state’s delegates.
Sanders aims for a similar outcome this time around and will visit Salt Lake City on Monday to rally his troops. It’s his first trek back to Utah since an April 2017 rally in Salt Lake City on the “Come Together and Fight Back” tour that drew hundreds of supporters to The Rail Event Center. And, of course, there was his 2016 presidential primary stopover when about 14,000 fans came to see him at This Is the Place Heritage Park.
The Vermont senator has so far racked up the most delegates in the nation’s first contests and is on the path, polls show, to take Utah again in the primary. A Salt Lake Tribune/Suffolk University poll from January had Sanders with 26.5% of the vote, double digits ahead of Warren and Biden. A Deseret News/Hinckley Institute poll published Friday had Sanders with 28%. Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Warren were in a close contest for second, with 19%, 18% and 15%, respectively.
Counting delegates
What Utahns need to know about Super Tuesday
Utah has 29 Democratic delegates up for grabs Tuesday, but it’s a tad complicated on how
they’re doled out.
A candidate has to win 15% of the vote statewide to compete for the three at-large delegates and then 15% in a congressional district to claim any delegates there. Those are divvied up based on the winning percentage of the vote.
The 4th Congressional District, represented by Democrat Ben McAdams, has seven delegates available to the highest vote-getters.
The state also has six superdelegates, or delegates who are free to vote for any candidate of their choice but only on the second round of balloting if a contender doesn't get the nomination outright.
Every delegate counts
“All of the candidates recognize that every one of these delegates is going to count,” says Merchant, the Utah Democratic chairman.
While Sanders has the lead so far nationally, it’s a small one. Super Tuesday could solidify his spot ahead of the pack but still leave him shy of the magic number that puts him over the top.
If Sanders doesn’t reach the 1,991 delegates needed to clinch and the delegate math is split among the senator and others, it could mean the party ends up with a brokered convention in Milwaukee in July. If no candidate has the nomination sewn up, delegates could break free after the first ballot.
So Super Tuesday means a lot for trying to avoid that scenario that may not play out well for a party hoping to retake the White House.
“Every candidate recognizes that the easiest way to make this happen is to do really well on Super Tuesday,” Merchant says. “And, as a result, they’re not leaving any delegate to chance.”
Trump wins (Republicans)
Republicans are also holding their primary Tuesday, but with an incumbent president, it’s not much of a contest.
Trump lost the Utah GOP caucus four years ago to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, though the president faces lesser-known competitors this time around and is expected to easily take the Super Tuesday primaries.
Former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld is challenging Trump for the GOP nod, though he knows it’s a long shot and is mainly doing it to offer an alternative.
“I felt it not only a political but a moral duty for someone to call him out, to plant that flag,” Weld told The Salt Lake Tribune during a recent campaign stop in Utah. “My enthusiasm for the task has never flagged because I think it’s very important.”
Trump hasn’t visited Utah since he dropped in at the end of 2017 to slash two national monuments in the state.
Bernie wins the cash race
In modern times, Utah has served as more of an ATM for candidates than a destination to visit. That collection of cash continues even as multiple candidates have come in for public appearances and rallies. Sanders has so far raked in the most contributions.
The Vermont senator has pulled $728,000 from Utahns so far this cycle, beating Trump who has raised $463,000, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.
Warren is next with nearly $367,000 raised from Utahns, followed by Buttigieg ($282,766) and Biden ($267,331).
In a switch from previous years, candidates are actually spending about as much money in the state as they raised, mainly fueled by Bloomberg who isn't taking donations and spending his own money to blanket the airwaves nationwide.
Bloomberg sweeps the ad race
The former New York City mayor has spent some $2.6 million on spots on television ads in the state on top of ads in The Tribune and other newspapers, according to FiveThirtyEight, which tracks TV spending. He’s also spent cash setting up a Utah field office and hiring a team to push his message in the state.
Warren and Sanders have also spent money on TV commercials in the state.
The party of Sanders?
If Sanders cleans up with delegates on Tuesday, he could be in a prime spot to win the nomination of a party he technically doesn't belong to since he's not a registered Democrat. (There is no party registration in Vermont.)
And some longtime Democratic officials are worried what kind of impact the self-described democratic socialist could have on down-ballot races and whether he could draw interest from independents or Republicans who aren’t enamored with Trump.
Magleby, the BYU professor, sees a parallel with this scenario: the 1972 bid by George McGovern, who ran on an anti-Vietnam War platform and drew excitement from younger Americans. But that translated into a landslide for President Richard Nixon’s reelection. McGovern won only Massachusetts and the District of Columbia in the general election.
“I would connect the Sanders phenomenon to the George McGovern phenomenon of 1972,” Magleby says, noting that McGovern supporters were excited about their candidate but the party was not.
“Party regulars would tell you years afterwards that those people vanished so soon after the general election and never to be seen again,” Magleby says. “And so in subsequent cycles, it was hard to generate grassroots sort of party-related activity.”
Merchant says he views the primary contest as a “great opportunity for Utah Democrats to shine” and show how diverse and inclusive the party is.
And the Utah Democratic chairman says Sanders will need a team to help him accomplish his plans if he wins the party's nod and the White House.
“Even though a lot of people view Bernie as an outsider, my hope is that if he were to win the nomination, that he would recognize that the only way that he is going to be able to accomplish any part of his agenda is having Democrats” in office, Merchant says.
“If somebody like Bernie Sanders becomes the nominee, he’s going to need all the help he can get,” Merchant adds. “So my hope would be that he would engage in party building.”
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