In Utah, he’s the Teflon Don.
Donald Trump can do no wrong in the state, or at least not enough for his base to disapprove of his performance as evidenced by the recent poll from The Salt Lake Tribune and the Hinckley Institute of Politics.
Despite what has to have been the most tumultuous first 18 months in generations, Trump’s approval rating in Utah continues to clunk along at 52 percent, actually experiencing a slight uptick since the first days of his administration.
Here’s the good news, I suppose: According to state-by-state polls conducted in May by Morning Consult, Trump registered just 48 percent approval in Utah, putting his support 25th in the nation. Even at 52 percent, it would just be a few slots higher.
The takeaway is that, especially stacked up against past Republican presidents, Utah’s support is tepid.
But the figure has been remarkably stable over an undeniably chaotic administration. So why does it seem Trump was right when he boasted that he could shoot a man dead in the middle of the street and his supporters would remain loyal?
The devotion, at least in Utah, seems to boil down to two factors.
The first was best described by Bill Clinton campaign strategist James Carville’s timeless advice two decades ago: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Nationally, the economy has been chugging along going back to the early years of President Barack Obama’s administration, and if Obama gets to take credit for pulling the country out of a recession, then Trump naturally will take credit for the growth since he took office.
And he does so in spite of his protectionist tariffs on our closest allies that even people like Sen. Orrin Hatch and Mitt Romney and Gov. Gary Herbert say will hurt the Beehive State.
An analysis by the World Trade Center Utah said Mexico, Canada and the European Union account for half of Utah’s global exports and retaliatory tariffs by those countries will impact as much as 80 percent of Utah’s $128 million-a-year iron and steel exports, 16 percent of the state’s $68 million in aluminum exports, and 22 percent of the $55 million in exported electrical equipment.
That aside, the economy has grown since Trump took office and Utah, more than just about any other state, is reaping the benefits of that growth — behind only Washington, Colorado, Nevada and Arizona, according to the most recent figures.
A down economy seems to be the only thing that makes Utahns chill to a Republican president, as evidenced by President George W. Bush’s approval plummeting from about 66 percent at about 18 months in office to an abysmal 44 percent as he left office in the midst of the economic crisis in 2009.
The second factor bolstering Trump’s figures in Utah is perhaps self-evident: We are incredibly tribal when it comes to our politics, both here in Utah and nationally.
Look at the gulf between the support for Trump among Republicans — 73 percent — compared to the 92 percent of Democrats who oppose him.
It’s why you’ve seen candidates like Rep. John Curtis and Romney handle the Trump issue gingerly, as Romney did in an opinion piece in The Tribune this week, while they are out courting voters in the Republican primary.
There are some notable areas where the president loses Utahns. His bombastic style is opposed by 57 percent, according to the poll, and perhaps most notably half oppose his immigration policy. Those immigration numbers came as the hurricane of opposition over Trump’s policy of separating asylum-seeking families at the border, which eventually drew the LDS Church into the debate, was still building steam. In short, that figure would probably be even lower today.
But even if his rating would suffer a little because of the immigration issue, Trump has likely found the floor for his support to be right around 50 percent of Utahns, and barring some catastrophic economic collapse — which even Trump critics would not be wishing for — you can anticipate that lukewarm approval to clunk along up until the midterm elections in November.
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