The federal government released draft proposals for the future of the drought-stricken Colorado River last week, outlining sweeping water cuts that could reshape how the Southwest’s most important river is managed.
The public can now weigh in on those proposals after the Bureau of Reclamation on Friday kicked off a 45-day public comment period on alternatives for operating Lake Powell and other Colorado River reservoirs after the current guidelines expire at the end of the year.
Some of the proposals call for significant water conservation in Utah and other Upper Basin states that are far above any commitments made to date, but it’s unclear how, or whether, that could be enforced or measured. The most aggressive of the government’s proposals would impose heavy cuts on the Lower Basin states of California, Arizona and Nevada.
“The river and the 40 million people who depend on it cannot wait,” Andrea Travnicek, the Interior Department’s assistant secretary for water and science, said in a statement. “In the face of an ongoing severe drought, inaction is not an option.”
Snowpack in the Upper Colorado River Basin is at its lowest level in a quarter century, according to a January report from the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.
“This is a critical moment for the river and the … people who depend on it,” John Berggren, regional policy manager at Western Resource Advocates, said in a news release. “Unless we come up with a proactive and comprehensive management plan, the West could see reservoir levels crash in the coming years and could even struggle to keep water flowing through the Grand Canyon.”
The federal government has given Utah and the six other basin states until Feb. 14 to come up with a plan for managing the river post-2026. If they reach a deal, the federal government will favor that plan in its final environmental impact statement, Scott Cameron, the bureau’s acting commissioner, told The Tribune in December.
(Trent Nelson | The Salt Lake Tribune) Lake Powell near Glen Canyon Dam in Page, Ariz. on Tuesday, May 20, 2025.
The Upper Basin states — Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming — and the Lower Basin have been at odds. Negotiators were in Salt Lake City this week to try to make progress on an agreement, according to a spokesperson for the bureau.
The release of the draft environmental impact statement was a “wake-up call” about the need for a “consensus agreement,” said Shivaji Deshmukh, general manager of California’s Metropolitan Water District, in a statement.
“None of the five alternatives analyzed by the Bureau of Reclamation are endorsed by any of the Basin States,” he wrote. “The various alternatives highlight the significant risks we could face if we don’t reach an agreement. And implementation of any alternatives would likely lead to lengthy litigation.”
If the states don’t reach a deal, the federal government will choose one of its proposed alternatives as the path forward, Cameron told The Tribune last month.
Here’s what’s on the table
No Action
This plan would revert to operations on the river before the implementation of the 2007 Interim Guidelines, which added cuts to the Lower Basin during dry times and expires at the end of the year.
Basic Coordination Alternative
This alternative would cut Lower Basin water by up to 1.48 million acre-feet, depending on the elevation of Lake Mead. It includes releases from Colorado River storage reservoirs in the Upper Basin, such as Flaming Gorge, but no Upper Basin conservation.
Enhanced Coordination Alternative
The bureau would determine cuts in the Lower Basin based on the combined storage in Powell and Mead. Shortages start at 1.3 million acre-feet and go up to 3 million acre-feet.
Releases from Powell could be as low as 4.7 million acre-feet based on the combined water levels in the two major reservoirs. This alternative also calls for annual conservation in the Upper Basin, ranging from 200,000 acre-feet to 350,000 acre-feet.
It includes “conservation pools” where tribes, many of which haven’t fully developed their water rights, may receive credit for contributing conserved and unused water.
(Trent Nelson | The Salt Lake Tribune) Glen Canyon Dam in Page, Ariz., on Monday, May 19, 2025.
Maximum Operational Flexibility Alternative
Releases from Lake Powell and cuts in the Lower Basin would be based on the average flow at Lees Ferry over the previous three years and the combined storage across Powell, Mead and other Colorado River reservoirs, such as Flaming Gorge.
Releases from Powell could drop to 5 million acre-feet and the Lower Basin may see cuts up to 4 million acre-feet — the largest shortage across the alternatives.
This option also creates a conservation pool and conservation targets for the Upper Basin.
Supply Driven Alternative
The Lower Basin could see cuts up to 2.1 million acre-feet, depending on the elevation of Lake Mead. Releases from Powell would be 65% of the river’s flow over the previous three years, going as low as 4.7 million acre-feet.
Key takeaways
The federal government has responsibilities but limited power to manage the river system.
Beyond no action, the basic coordination option is the only alternative the federal government could implement without an agreement from the states or additional legal authorities, but it may not protect the river system over the long term, according to the bureau’s analysis.
Other alternatives apply cuts “pro rata,” or proportionally, across all users in the Lower Basin, as opposed to priority of water rights. This is one element the federal government would need additional agreements to implement, according to the bureau.
“The [alternatives] that appear to have some promise … will require cooperation, maybe changes of law,” Eric Kuhn, retired general manager of the Colorado River Water Conservation District, said. “They’ll require the states, in some cases, to waive compact issues.”
The document includes alternatives with low releases from Powell, which may get states into tricky legal territory if there’s not a waiver or change to the Colorado River Compact, which says Upper Basin states can’t cause the flow of the river at Lees Ferry, just below Glen Canyon Dam, to drop below a rolling average of 7.5 million acre-feet per year over ten years.
(Trent Nelson | The Salt Lake Tribune) Field Division Manager Gus Levy at Glen Canyon Dam in Page, Ariz. on Tuesday, May 20, 2025.
Overall, the Lower Basin would carry the burden of cuts.
“The proposed releases to the Lower Basin would be immensely challenging for communities and ecosystems. … Conversely, cuts for the Upper Basin are not clear or spelled out with the type of specificity that their counterparts face,” Kyle Roerink, director of the Great Basin Water Network, said in a statement.
Even the conservation expectations included for the Upper Basin, though, may be more than what Utah and other states would accept.
“I see no way that the Upper Basin is going to agree to that,” Kuhn said.
The bureau is accepting comments until March 2 and is holding public meetings on Jan. 29 and Feb. 10. More information on how to participate is on the bureau’s website.
This article is published through the Colorado River Collaborative, a solutions journalism initiative supported by the Janet Quinney Lawson Institute for Land, Water, and Air at Utah State University. See all of our stories about how Utahns are impacted by the Colorado River at greatsaltlakenews.org/coloradoriver.