Snowpack in the mountains that feed the Colorado River, the water supply for 40 million people, is off to its worst start in a quarter century.
“Very poor snow conditions are out there right now,” said Cody Moser, a hydrologist with the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, during a water supply briefing on Thursday.
Snow cover in the Upper Colorado River Basin, which includes Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming, sat at 28% of the 25-year median as of Jan. 1, according to the forecast center — the lowest recorded level since 2001.
While recent storms since the new year have boosted snow conditions slightly in northern Utah, overall conditions are still “extremely poor” across much of the Colorado River Basin, Moser said. Soils across much of the region are also drier.
The combination of little snow and dry soils means Utah will likely experience more drought conditions this year. The center forecasts that Lake Powell will only have 57% normal water supply this spring. “Soil moisture and snowpack are the biggest drivers of the current water supply outlook,” Moser said.
Lake Powell started 2026 roughly 33 feet lower than it did last year, according to the Bureau of Reclamation’s latest study. The bureau’s forecast shows the lake could reach new historic lows next summer. Current guidelines for managing the Colorado River during droughts expire at the end of the year, and states have shown little progress in reaching a deal.
(Christopher Cherrington | The Salt Lake Tribune)
Most water in Utah and the greater Colorado River Basin starts as snow. Less snow falling in the mountains equals less runoff into the region’s creeks, rivers and lakes that provide water for drinking, irrigation, industries and more. Drier soil means more water seeps into the ground rather than running downstream.
This winter has been abnormally warm and dry. Salt Lake and several other cities across the Colorado River Basin experienced its warmest December on record, according to the forecast center. So far this winter, snow has already melted at elevations as high as 10,000 feet in Utah and Colorado, Moser said.
Unusually warm weather has led to other dire conditions. Temperatures also affect the snow water equivalent — the amount of water available in the snow — as snow holds less water in warmer air. The snow water equivalent is below the 10th percentile across most of Utah, with several locations seeing record lows, according to the forecast center.
‘Bright spots’
There are a “few bright spots,” though, Moser said. The headwaters of the Green River in northern Utah and southwest Wyoming saw above average precipitation in December. The Green River flows through much of eastern Utah and is the Colorado River’s largest tributary.
The center is still only forecasting 80% of normal water supply flowing into Flaming Gorge Reservoir on the Green, though.
Flaming Gorge is one of the main reservoirs Colorado River states rely on for water releases to bump up Lake Powell when its elevation gets dangerously low.
The early snow melt and high elevation rain events also bumped up the soil moisture in some parts of northern Utah that normally would have frozen ground in December, Moser said.
Going forward, the seven-day forecast is showing little precipitation, and the two-week outlook is also showing dry and warm conditions across Utah, according to the center.
This article is published through the Colorado River Collaborative, a solutions journalism initiative supported by the Janet Quinney Lawson Institute for Land, Water, and Air at Utah State University. See all of our stories about how Utahns are impacted by the Colorado River at greatsaltlakenews.org/coloradoriver.