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Lake Powell continues to drop as Colorado River experiences ‘unprecedented drought’

Lake Powell is projected to start 2026 roughly 33 feet lower than it did this year, according to the most recent forecast from the Bureau of Reclamation.

(Trent Nelson | The Salt Lake Tribune) The Colorado River north of Glen Canyon Dam in Page, Ariz., on Tuesday, May 20, 2025.

Families flocking to Lake Powell for summer vacations will find closed and less accessible boat ramps in the coming weeks.

Water levels continue to drop as “unprecedented drought” plagues the Colorado River Basin, according to the Bureau of Reclamation. The agency’s latest 24-month study, released Friday, shows Lake Powell will most likely start next year 33 feet lower than it did this year.

The projected level for January 1, 2026 — 3,538.47 feet — keeps the lake at the “Mid-Elevation Release Tier” and the agency will again release 7.48 million acre-feet of water from Glen Canyon Dam next year. If conditions worsen, the agency may have to reduce water releases.

“This underscores the importance of immediate action to secure the future of the Colorado River,” said Reclamation’s Acting Commissioner David Palumbo in a Friday statement. “We must develop new, sustainable operating guidelines that are robust enough to withstand ongoing drought and poor runoff conditions to ensure water security for more than 40 million people who rely on this vital resource.”

(Trent Nelson | The Salt Lake Tribune) A raft on the Colorado River at Lees Ferry in Marble Canyon, Ariz., on Tuesday, May 20, 2025.

Current management guidelines for the imperiled river expire at the end of 2026. The seven states that make up the Colorado River Basin — Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming — as well as 30 federally recognized tribes have been in tense negotiations about how to share the water into an increasingly dry future.

“The urgency for the seven Colorado River Basin states to reach a consensus agreement has never been clearer,” said Scott Cameron, acting assistant secretary for water and science at the Interior Department, in a Friday statement. “We cannot afford to delay.”

The Upper Colorado River Commission, which includes Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming, met in June and called for a “supply-based water management solution” that’s grounded in the actual available water in the river system.

“You can’t reduce what doesn’t come down the stream. And that’s the reality we’re faced with,” said Gene Shawcroft, Utah’s Colorado River commissioner, in a June statement. “The only way we’re going to achieve a successful outcome is if we’re willing to work together — and not just protect our own interests.”

The seven Basin states are supposed to submit details of preliminary agreements by mid-November and share a final agreement by mid-February of next year to the Interior Department. Interior aims to reach a final decision in the summer of 2026 to then implement new guidelines in 2027.

“Now is the time for the Trump Administration to change the mindset on the river and its tributaries once and for all,” said Kyle Roerink, executive director of the Great Basin Water Network. “In order to stabilize the system in the coming years, the Upper Basin and Lower Basin states must all cut usage and forgo any ideas about new water delivery projects. Water is not available to meet existing demands.”

If water levels continue to drop before a new agreement has been reached, near-term guidelines provide the seven states with strategies to reduce the risk of Lake Powell and Lake Mead reaching power pool — the level below which water can’t flow through the dams to spin turbines and generate electricity.

Those near-term guidelines include 3 million acre-feet of water conservation by Lower Basin states — Arizona, California and Nevada — and a potential reduced release from Lake Powell.

(Trent Nelson | The Salt Lake Tribune) Lake Powell near Glen Canyon Dam in Page, Ariz. on Tuesday, May 20, 2025.

“These short-term tools will only help us for so long,” Cameron said on Friday. “The next set of guidelines need to be in place.”

Meanwhile, the National Park Service will continue to adapt recreational use as Lake Powell continues to drop in real time. It will close Wahweap Main Launch Ramp on Monday, August 18 and move the Rainbow Bridge dock further into the reservoir on August 25, according to a Thursday announcement from the agency.