The Grand County Commission on June 17 approved a $60,000 study by the University of Utah’s Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute to evaluate whether Arches National Park’s timed-entry reservation system is affecting the local tourism economy.
The pilot system — launched in 2022 to manage congestion and improve visitor experiences — requires reservations during peak visitation periods each year. The study will use economic modeling and park data to determine whether the system has had measurable effects on visitation, tax revenue or other tourism indicators.
Expected to conclude in December, the analysis comes as the National Park Service considers whether to make the timed-entry system permanent. Now in its fourth season, the system remains the preferred option in the park’s draft Visitor Access and Experience Plan. A final decision is anticipated later this year.
Commissioners, residents and business owners have long expressed differing views on the system’s economic effects. Some believe the reservation requirement may be discouraging park visits and contributing to slower tourism activity. Others point to broader factors — such as inflation, high travel costs, changing visitor preferences and national travel trends — as more likely drivers, noting that heightened competition among local businesses and a return to pre-pandemic norms may also be playing a role.
Earlier this year, the commission withdrew its previous support for making the system permanent, citing local economic concerns but remaining open to future refinements.
“This [study] is a no-brainer,” said Commission Chair Bill Winfield. “We just want a simple answer — what is this doing to our economy? And let’s move forward with whatever the answer is.”
Study design and visitation context
From 2011 to 2021, annual visitation to Arches grew by 74%, peaking at 1.8 million visitors in 2021 during a surge in outdoor travel following COVID-19 pandemic-related shutdowns. The timed-entry system launched in April 2022 to reduce traffic congestion that sometimes led to temporary park closures, protect park resources and improve overall visitor experience.
Visitation dropped in 2022 and has since leveled off. The park saw about 1.46 million visitors in 2022, 1.48 million in 2023 and 1.46 million in 2024 — below the 2016–2019 average of 1.58 million and similar to 2015–2016 levels. Early 2025 figures are tracking closely with 2024, though finalized numbers are not yet available.
In March, Southeast Utah Group Superintendent Lena Pace told The Times-Independent that a change in how group sizes are counted may understate recent visitation. Adjusted for that change, Arches saw a 2.56% increase in visitation from 2023 to 2024, she said.
The reservation requirement currently applies from April 1 to July 6 and again from Aug. 28 to Oct. 31, between 7 a.m. and 4 p.m. For the first time, the system is suspended between July 7 and Aug. 27 to account for the summer tourism dip caused by extreme heat.
Arches has also extended advance reservations to six months from three months, is exploring additional access points and launching initiatives aimed at better informing visitors before they reach the entrance.
Commissioner Brian Martinez has previously noted that Grand County’s inflation-adjusted tax revenues have declined over the past three years — a trend he believes warrants closer examination given that visitation to Arches has remained flat since the system was introduced.
The Gardner Institute’s analysis will use synthetic control modeling to estimate what visitation, lodging activity and tax revenue might have looked like if the reservation system had not been implemented. Researchers will also examine monthly visitation trends, employment impacts, short-term rental and hotel metrics and visitor spending. The study will include regional benchmarking, comparing Grand County’s tourism economy to other gateway communities, such as Washington, Garfield and Kane counties.
A 2024 socioeconomic analysis commissioned by the National Park Service and conducted by Bioeconomics and RRC Associates analyzed data from the first two years (2022–2023) of the Arches pilot and found no statistically significant negative impact on the local economy.
While visitation fell about 9.4% in 2022 compared with the 2016–2019 average, similar declines were seen at other parks without reservation systems. The study also noted that local taxable sales held steady or increased and that visitor satisfaction improved as crowding eased.
Some county officials, however, questioned the scope of the study — prompting renewed interest in a separate review of more data.
Debate over value and funding
The June 17 action directs the $60,000 cost to be paid from promotional transient room tax (TRT) funds, with the condition that the general fund will reimburse the amount if the study finds no measurable economic impact or is later deemed ineligible under state TRT rules.
Commissioners split over whether the study was necessary and how it should be funded.
“We’ve already spent over $1 million in unbudgeted funds this year,” said Commissioner Mary McGann. “This is a want, not a need … not everybody in the community thinks this is a great idea.”
County Attorney Stephen Stocks said the expenditure is defensible under TRT law if the study informs future tourism strategy. He noted the commission could revisit the funding source once the study concludes.
Supporters said the analysis could help clarify whether the reservation system is contributing to economic challenges reported by some businesses.
“These are big issues in our community,” said Vice Chair Melodie McCandless, noting she’s heard from business owners who reported a sharp drop in June sales. “… They are hurting, and we need to figure out the root cause.”
Commissioner Trish Hedin proposed expanding the scope to examine broader factors influencing tourism. Commissioner Jacques Hadler added that the City of Moab had expressed willingness to co-fund a more comprehensive analysis if the county was open to that approach.
“I think it [could be] another avenue that we have to work with [the city] on something that affects all of us, and it could lower the price tag of this and give us a better economic viewpoint of what’s going on,” he said.
But Winfield and others favored a narrower approach.
“I would not be interested in any way, shape or form, partnering with the state or the city,” Winfield said. “The more people that get their fingers in this, the more diluted the study will be.”
During public comment, Castle Valley resident Mary O’Brien opposed the study. She presented data showing similar visitation declines at other national parks in this area of the country without reservation systems and argued that broader travel trends were at play.
“To spend $60,000 of taxpayer money when you’re already over budget for this implausible timed-entry hypothesis seems particularly senseless and unaccountable to Grand County taxpayers,” she said.
The motion passed 4-3, with McGann, Hedin and Hadler opposed.
“There’s one simple question that we want to have answered, and that is, what is the impact that the Arches reservation system is having on the county?” Martinez said.
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