Sean P. Means: Sure things and personal picks for Oscar nominations

The 89th Academy Awards will be handed out in Hollywood on Sunday, Feb. 26, and there are three things that seem like sure bets at this point:

• The musical "La La Land" will win big.

• Mahershala Ali is pretty much a lock as supporting actor, despite what the Golden Globes say.

• Around 7 a.m. on Monday, Feb. 27, the president of the United States will vent his anger on Twitter at whichever celebrity said mean things about him during the ceremony.

The rest is all in the hands of the motion-picture academy's voters, who now are poring over their ballots and considering what should be nominated for Oscars. Those nominations will be announced on the morning of Tuesday, Jan. 24.

But why wait for official word when rampant speculation will do the trick? Here are The Cricket's picks for the nominees in the big categories, and what names would be written on The Cricket's (nonexistent) ballot.

Best Actor

Sure things • Casey Affleck for "Manchester by the Sea," Denzel Washington for "Fences."

Close behind • Ryan Gosling for "La La Land," Viggo Mortensen for "Captain Fantastic."

Fifth slot • Andrew Garfield for "Hacksaw Ridge" (though he should be nominated for "Silence").

On the outside • Tom Hanks for "Sully."

The Cricket's vote • I'd love to see Joel Edgerton in there for his quietly powerful performance in "Loving."

Best Actress

Sure things • Emma Stone for "La La Land," Natalie Portman for "Jackie."

Close behind • Isabelle Huppert for "Elle," Amy Adams for "Arrival."

Fifth slot • Ruth Negga for "Loving."

On the outside • Annette Bening for "20th Century Women."

The Cricket's vote • Krisha Fairchild as the trying-to-recover alcoholic mom in "Krisha."

Best Supporting Actor

Sure things • Mahershala Ali for "Moonlight," Jeff Bridges for "Hell or High Water."

Close behind • Lucas Hedges for "Manchester by the Sea," Dev Patel for "Lion."

Fifth slot • The suddenly surging Aaron Taylor-Johnson for "Nocturnal Animals."

On the outside • Hugh Grant for "Florence Foster Jenkins."

The Cricket's pick • Issei Ogata as the cagey tormentor of Christians in "Silence."

Best Supporting Actress

Sure thing • Viola Davis for "Fences."

Close behind • Naomie Harris for "Moonlight," Michelle Williams for "Manchester by the Sea," Octavia Spencer for "Hidden Figures."

Fifth slot • Nicole Kidman for "Lion."

On the outside • Felicity Jones for "A Monster Calls."

The Cricket's pick • Lily Gladstone as the lovelorn ranch hand in "Certain Women."

Best Director

Sure things • Barry Jenkins for "Moonlight," Damien Chazelle for "La La Land."

Close behind • Martin Scorsese for "Silence," Kenneth Lonergan for "Manchester by the Sea."

Fifth slot • Denzel Washington for "Fences."

On the outside • Denis Villeneuve for "Arrival."

The Cricket's pick • Animation gets short shrift in the major categories, so my pitch for "Kubo and the Two Strings'" director Travis Knight would probably fall on deaf ears. More's the pity.

Best Picture

Sure things • "La La Land," "Moonlight."

Close behind • "Manchester by the Sea," "Arrival," "Fences."

Filling out the rest • "Hidden Figures," "Lion," "Hell or High Water."

On the outside • "Hacksaw Ridge," "Silence."

The Cricket's pick • Can't complain much, since "Moonlight" and "La La Land" were my top two movies of 2016. So my hopeful vote would go to "Silence," a 30-year labor of love for Martin Scorsese.

Sean P. Means writes The Cricket in daily blog form at www.sltrib.com/blogs/moviecricket. Follow him on Twitter @moviecricket. Email him at spmeans@sltrib.com.