Tuesday, 6:30 p.m., ESPN

NBA DRAFT

June 28, 5:30 p.m., ESPN

First of a three-day series looking ahead

to Tuesday's NBA draft lottery

Two words for Utah Jazz fans who think the franchise's best draft pick in two decades will immediately improve a team that lost 56 games last season: Kwame Brown.

The Jazz find out where they pick in the 2005 draft on Tuesday night, when the NBA conducts its annual lottery.

They could pick as high as No. 1. They could pick as low as No. 7. Statistically, they will most likely pick No. 4, since the Jazz had the fourth-worst record in the league last season behind Atlanta, New Orleans and Charlotte.

In any case. Utah's reward for muddling through an injury-plagued year with only 26 victories will be its most intriguing draft position since 1983.

"This," said team vice president Bob Hyde, "is a big deal for us."

Unfortunately for the Jazz, securing a high lottery pick and getting guaranteed dividends in return are often two different things.

Take Brown. The long-suffering Washington Wizards used the No. 1 pick in the 2001 draft on the 19-year-old man-child from Glynn Academy High School in New Brunswick, Ga.

Brown skipped college, jumped directly to the NBA and, over the last four years, has earned the dubious distinction of being one of the biggest busts in lottery history.

Move over, Michael Olowokandi.

Step aside, Derrick Coleman.

Brown is one of the newest members of

a suspect club with a membership that has grown annually since the NBA started using a lottery in 1985.

A 6-foot-11 center, Brown averaged only seven points and five rebounds last season, when the Wizards could have become an Eastern Conference contender with more consistent interior play. He didn't even participate in the playoffs after being suspended for loudly complaining about his playing time and use within the offense by coach Eddie Jordan.

In hindsight, Washington would have been better served by taking Pau Gasol, Jason Richardson, Joe Johnson or Richard Jefferson. They were other lottery picks in 2001, and all have developed into higher-caliber players.

"Sometimes," said Jazz vice president of basketball operations Kevin O'Connor, "you can't look into someone's heart."

'Character issues'

David Fredman is the assistant general manager of the Denver Nuggets.

Asked how such gruesome draft-day mistakes are made, he said, "No. 1, beauty is always in the eye of the beholder. I don't care where you're picking, the human element is always involved . . . and people make mistakes."

Other factors involved in Brown-like picks?

"Taking players because of their upside - their potential," Fredman said. "And character issues. Trying to figure out character issues. That's tough."

In the 2002 draft, Denver owned two of the top five picks in the draft. The Nuggets selected Nene Hillario from Brazil and 19-year-old Russian Nikoloz Tskitishvili. Denver passed on Amare Stoudemire, who went to Phoenix at No. 9 and is now an All-Star.

"Stoudemire wasn't drafted ninth because of talent," Fredman said.

Translation: Seven teams besides Denver passed on him because of unresolved character issues regarding Stoudemire, whose mother and brother have criminal histories.

In 1985, an underclassman from Louisiana Tech named Karl Malone also dropped in the draft, but for different reasons.

Projected to be one of the first players taken - and guaranteed by Dallas management that the Mavs would grab him at No. 9 if he plummeted to them - Malone unexpectedly slid to the Jazz at No. 13 after lottery busts like Benoit Benjamin and Jon Koncak were taken in the top five.

"I don't think anybody knew about Karl's heart or work ethic," said O'Connor. "I also don't think people looked at his 48-percent free-throw shooting in college and expected him to finish [his career] at 80 percent. . . . I don't think anybody anticipated that kind of desire to improve."

According to Fredman, then-Louisiana Tech coach Andy Russo also failed to enthusiastically endorse Malone to NBA scouts and player personnel directors.

As a result, perhaps, Dallas decided to take Detlef Schrempf at No. 9. When Washington took Wake Forest small forward Kenny Green with the 12th pick, the Jazz grabbed Malone and - in the big picture - helped secure their previously shaky future in Utah.

"Karl and his college coach didn't part on the best of terms - that helped the Jazz," Fredman said. "But that's how these things happen sometimes. Those are the kind of things that can come into play."

Injury, drug detours

Injuries have short-circuited the careers of NBA lottery picks - among them Jay Williams, T.J. Ford, DerMarr Johnson, Bobby Hurley and Bryant Reeves. But sometimes players self-destruct.

In 1986, Boston made Len Bias the No. 2 pick in the draft. Two days later, he was dead of a cocaine overdose, and the Celtics' plan to make him the franchise's centerpiece in the post-Larry Bird era ended.

But Bias wasn't alone.

Three other lottery picks in the '86 draft - Chris Washburn, William Bedford and Roy Tarpley - had their careers sidetracked by drugs.

"Teams went strictly on talent," O'Connor said of the infamous Drug Draft. "I think what happened after that was teams started doing more research - more homework - on different players."

In recent years, the draft lottery has been muddled by an influx of high school and foreign players. Three of the last four No. 1 picks - Dwight Howard, LeBron James and Brown - have jumped to the NBA directly from high school. The other top pick since 2001 was Houston's Yao Ming.

Trying to evaluate such young players - or players from such far-flung locations as China - is difficult. And mistakes are more likely to be made.

"When you draft kids who are 18 and 19 years old," O'Connor said, "sometimes you just don't have enough information to make a qualified decision."

Referring to former University of Utah stars Keith Van Horn and Andre Miller, who were high lottery picks after spending four years playing college basketball, O'Connor said, "You had a pretty good feel for who those guys were and how they were going to play in the NBA. But it's more difficult with a kid from Converse, Ga., who hasn't played against anybody bigger than 6-foot-6."

Playing time critical

Opportunity to play certainly impacts a lottery pick's chance of success.

Two years ago, Detroit owned the No. 2 pick in the draft.

After Cleveland selected James, the Pistons took Darko Milicic of Serbia-Montenegro. Eligible for the draft because he turned 18 just days earlier, Milicic hasn't made an impact in Detroit during his first two seasons. But unlike James and fellow lottery picks Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade and Kirk Hinrich, he never plays.

Sitting behind established veterans like Ben Wallace, Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess on a contending team that has needed every win it can get, Milicic hasn't gotten a chance to develop like the Cavaliers' James, the Raptors' Bosh or the Bulls' Hinrich.

Said O'Connor about Bosh: "In his first 30 games as a rookie, you probably would have questioned [Toronto] a little bit. But in his final 30 games last season, I don't think there were any questions. You were actually shocked when you didn't see him get a double-double."

The bottom line?

The NBA draft is a crapshoot, even for teams with the top picks.

Player personnel-types roll the dice.

They hope for LeBron James, not Kwame Brown.