The Utes have made an NCAA Tournament berth a growing possibility on the strength of five straight wins and a recent run that has included eight wins in the past 10 games.
Utah put itself on solid footing with Thursday night’s 84-78 win against UCLA, and a victory against USC on Saturday afternoon in the Huntsman Center could be the type of game that bolsters Utah’s resume to the point that it can’t be ignored by the selection committee. Utah moved up to 42nd in the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI).
Of course, the final game of the regular season and the Pac-12′s tournament in Las Vegas almost certainly also will serve as determining factors. The Utes finished in fourth place in the conference last season, but were one-and-done in the conference tournament and passed over by the NCAA Tournament selection committee.
“I can’t really describe the importance [of this win], you know, putting it on paper,” Utes coach Larry Krystkowiak said following Thursday’s game. “I just know that, as I said this week, we’re in a position to kind of control our own destiny.”
The Utes (18-9, 10-6) assured themselves of a winning record in Pac-12 play with the win over UCLA and put themselves into a tie for third place in the conference. USC (20-9, 11-5) sits in second place and won the January meeting between the teams in Southern California. A loss to USC at home could deliver a big blow to the Utes’ hopes considering USC also is a team on the bubble for a tournament berth.
CBS Sports bracketology expert Jerry Palm projected the Utes into the NCAA Tournament field as an 11 seed as of Friday, while ESPN’s Joe Lunardi slotted the Utes among the top eight teams outside of the tournament’s field of 68 before Thursday night’s win.
“[It’s] huge for us,” Utes senior David Collette said. “We’ve been talking about this one all week, obviously. With the tournament coming, it was a must-win for us if we wanted to get in — in our eyes. It’s a good first game, but we’ve got to finish it off now. We’ve still got two left.”
The NCAA has gone to a quadrant system this season based upon RPI to delineate between wins. The top-tier or “Quadrant 1” wins include home victories against teams ranked 1-30 in RPI, neutral site victories teams ranked 1-50 or road victories against teams ranked 1-75.
The Utes have gone 2-6 in Quadrant 1 games. Both wins came in the past month on the road against Arizona State and Washington. The Utes narrowly missed another top-flight win when they lost to Arizona on the road by one point.
The next tier of wins, or Quadrant 2, have been where the Utes have made their strongest case. Those wins include home wins against teams rated between 31-75 in RPI, neutral-site wins against teams rated 51-100 and road wins against teams rated 76-135.
The Utes are now 4-2 in Quadrant 2 games, and a win Saturday would be their fifth. A win against Colorado in the regular-season finale would be a Quadrant 3 win, but it could get the Utes to 20 wins for the season and 12 Pac-12 wins — provided they beat USC — and send them into the conference tournament as a top-four seed.
The safest bet for the Utes will be to win their final two regular-season games and at least one game in the conference tournament.
“We’ve got plenty of work to do,” Collette said. “We’ve got two more to win, and if not that, we’ve got a tournament to win. We’re not there yet.”
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT UTAH <br>Tipoff • 12:30 p.m. Saturday <br>TV • Pac-12 Network <br>Radio • 700 AM <br>Records • USC 20-9, 11-5; Utah 18-9, 10-6 <br>Series history • Utah leads 22-17 <br>About the Trojans • Junior forward Chimezie Metu scored a game-high 21 points in a 75-64 win against Colorado on Wednesday night. Metu went 10-of-16 shooting. The 6-foot-11, 225-pound forward leads the team in scoring this season (15.9 points per game). Metu’s name appeared in a Yahoo Sports report Friday morning alleging that he and/or an advisor received $2,000. It’s not clear whether USC will hold him out of Saturday’s game due to eligibility concerns. USC center Bennie Boatwright already is out for the season due to a left knee injury. … Senior guard Jordan McLaughlin leads the Pac-12 in assists (7.7 per game) and ranked fourth in NCAA Division I entering Friday. He has averaged 12.1 points per game and is a finalist for the Bob Cousy Award as the nation’s top point guard. <br>About the Utes • Senior forward David Collette scored a team-high 21 points in an 84-78 win over UCLA on Thursday night. Collette went 9 of 9 from field in the game. He has now gone 35 of 40 in his past five games and averaged 16.2 points per game during that stretch. Collette enters the weekend having averaged 13.1 points per game this season. … Senior guard Justin Bibbins registered his third double-double of the season Thursday night. He scored 17 points and had 10 assists. Bibbins goes into the weekend ranked 17th in the nation in 3-point shooting accuracy (45.1 percent). He leads the Utes in scoring (14.3 ppg) and assists (5.0 per game).
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