After winning consecutive games that they weren’t supposed to, can the Utah Jazz win the ones they’re expected to?
The rest of the season’s schedule is shockingly favorable for Utah, with the team predicted to win the next 17 games and 19 of the next 20 overall for the rest of the season.
FiveThirtyEight publishes winning probabilities for every team for every remaining game on its website, using its game prediction model CARMELO. And if you believe it — to be honest, the results scan as pretty reasonable — then the Jazz should have a remarkably downhill slope for the rest of the season.
| Home Team | Road Team | Jazz probability of winning |
|---|---|---|
| Jazz | Pelicans | 78% |
| Pelicans | Jazz | 54% |
| Grizzlies | Jazz | 61% |
| Jazz | Thunder | 65% |
| Suns | Jazz | 78% |
| Jazz | Timberwolves | 72% |
| Jazz | Nets | 87% |
| Wizards | Jazz | 62% |
| Knicks | Jazz | 85% |
| Hawks | Jazz | 71% |
| Bulls | Jazz | 72% |
| Jazz | Suns | 93% |
| Jazz | Lakers | 82% |
| Jazz | Wizards | 86% |
| Jazz | Hornets | 87% |
| Suns | Jazz | 77% |
| Jazz | Kings | 90% |
| Lakers | Jazz | 48% |
| Jazz | Nuggets | 68% |
| Clippers | Jazz | 53% |
In only three of the remaining games will the Jazz face an opponent that holds an above-.500 record: the Oklahoma City Thunder on March 11 at home, the Denver Nuggets on April 9 at home, and the Los Angeles Clippers on April 10 in L.A. But thanks to the home advantage — worth three to six points, according to various analysts — the Jazz are favored in both games at Vivint Smart Home Arena.
The only game the Jazz aren’t favored in is an April 7 away game against the Los Angeles Lakers, for which FiveThirtyEight says the Jazz have “just” a 48 percent chance of winning. But given the Lakers’ recent form, including losses to the Memphis Grizzlies, Atlanta Hawks and Phoenix Suns, their season might be done by then.
It is, by wide agreement, and perhaps by some distance, the easiest schedule remaining in the NBA.
When asked about their remaining schedule, the Jazz mostly say the right kind of things — that they’ll have to take it “one game at a time” to get value out of their schedule. Donovan Mitchell, for example, acknowledges that the Jazz have played well over the course of their current four-game winning streak.
“We’ve taken it to an even greater level. We’ve done it four times, but I don’t know where we are in the standings,” Mitchell said. “You have to continue to do this every game, just like last year.”
(Trent Nelson | The Salt Lake Tribune) 102-year-old Jazz fan Roberta Morgan holds up an autographed shoe given to her by Utah Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell (45) as the Utah Jazz host the Milwaukee Bucks, NBA basketball in Salt Lake City on Saturday March 2, 2019.
About those standings: They look pretty promising, too. After Saturday’s win over the Milwaukee Bucks, the Jazz stand just two games away from the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Portland Trail Blazers, who are tied for the No. 3 seed. FiveThirtyEight predicts the Jazz will finish with a 50-32 record, with a 14-6 finish to the season in the remaining 20 games. That’s also the record ESPN’s Basketball Power Index simulator, which runs the rest of the season 10,000 times, sees as most likely for the Jazz.
In both simulations, the Jazz tie for the No. 3 seed, behind the Golden State Warriors and Denver Nuggets. In FiveThirtyEight’s simulation, the Jazz tie with the Houston Rockets, a tiebreaker they’ve already lost, bumping them down to No. 4. In ESPN’s, the tie is with Portland. That season series finished at 2-2, so the next tiebreaker is division record. Right now, the Jazz have a 6-7 record against the rest of the Northwest, while the Blazers have gone just 4-8 in those games.
According to the win probability model at Inpredict, the most likely seed for the Jazz is the No. 3 seed. They have a 32 percent chance at that, and a 25 percent chance at the No. 4 seed. For the truly optimistic, there’s a 15 percent chance at the No. 2 seed. Sure, there’s a six-game distance between the Jazz and Nuggets now, but Denver has 13 games remaining against above-.500 teams, not just three. Thanks to their four-game winning streak, there’s a projected 72 percent chance of home-court advantage in the first round for the Jazz.
It’s been an up-and-down season for Utah, but the schedule sets up for the Jazz to achieve their regular-season goals.
“I don’t see any limits for us. We want to aim at the top and show every day that we can beat the best teams in the league,” Rudy Gobert said. “Now, it’s up to us to become one.”
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