It is not always obvious which developments in the Russia investigation are meaningful. Special prosecutor Robert S. Mueller III operates mostly out of view, and continues to surprise the media and political watchers each time he obtains a plea or indicts someone. We do know, at least after the fact, which things are of little or no import, although they may be interesting or amusing for other reasons.
Take the flap over the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court’s issuance of a warrant to conduct surveillance on Carter Page. For weeks, Republicans — especially Rep. Devin Nunes, Calif. — made a huge deal of the warrant application, saying that it evidenced corruption, tainted the entire case, etc. This whole issue has vanished, in part, because the court was informed about the political origins of the dossier and in part because the FBI investigation did not start with Page. All that effort, all those Sean Hannity tirades — for nothing.
In the same vein, the announcement that President Donald Trump was a subject but not a target was fodder for TV cable news. The case against Trump was kaput! (The same “news” was repeated Thursday, when reports surfaced that Deputy Attorney General Rod J. Rosenstein told Trump that he was still a subject and not a target. (And “Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead.”)
Likewise, for fired deputy FBI director Andrew McCabe, a criminal referral for allegedly misleading FBI investigators is a profoundly serious matter. (It is also reassuring proof that the rule of law applies to FBI officials just as it does to every American.) The Post reports:
“The referral to the D.C. U.S. Attorney’s Office occurred some time ago, after the inspector general concluded McCabe had lied to investigators or his own boss, then-FBI Director James B. Comey, on four occasions, three of them under oath.
“The U.S. Attorney’s Office met with McCabe’s legal team in recent weeks, though it was not immediately clear whether prosecutors there were conducting their own investigation or believed criminal charges are appropriate.
“The referral raises at least the possibility that McCabe could be charged and jailed for his alleged misconduct — perhaps with Comey testifying as a witness against him. A referral to federal prosecutors, though, does not necessarily mean McCabe will be charged with a crime.”
Now, Trump was certainly obsessed with McCabe, but he really does not figure prominently in the Russia case. “I don’t necessarily see any impact to the Mueller investigation at all,” Susan Hennessey of the Lawfare blog tells me. “McCabe was one of the individuals Comey contemporaneously informed about Trump’s improper contacts, but we know there are at least three others in the FBI senior leadership he also included. So even if this meant McCabe was viewed as less credible for purposes of corroborating Comey’s account, there are multiple other individuals who could do the same.”
Former Justice Department public affairs director Matt Miller agrees that “you don’t need him for the Comey stuff — Comey wrote his memos and talked to lots of people.” (Miller notes that if there were other facts regarding obstruction to which McCabe was privy, he probably cannot at this stage be an effective witness.)
Another non-factor: The odd appearance of Rudy Giuliani on Trump’s legal team. A weird plot twist in an already convoluted TV drama, the emergence of Giuliani, who has not practiced real law for decades (Fox News commentary does not count) and will join the legal team for a “few weeks,” seems like another distraction. Giuliani plans to “negotiate an end to this for the good of the country.” Good luck with that. Mueller isn’t about to “negotiate” an end to an ongoing criminal investigation. It’s not clear whether Trump is so foolish as to believe that Giuliani will provide some legal value or whether Trump is simply giving his friend (who is going through a third divorce) some TV exposure.
Then there is the hoopla surrounding former FBI director James Comey’s book. It’s an interesting political story, to be sure. Democrats seethe over his handling of the Hillary Clinton email probe while Republicans, whipped into a fury by Trump, holler baseless accusations. Trump’s call to lock him up is another norm violation reminding us that Trump thinks a threat from the chief executive to imprison opponents is no different than one of his empty threats to sue a newspaper.
Insofar as the Russia case is concerned, the book seems to be a non-factor. “Comey certainly submitted the book to the FBI for prepublication review,” Hennessey says. “That means that the FBI itself does not believe anything contained in the book will adversely impact investigative equities.” Moreover, Comey’s testimony relates to observations before he was fired. If he is biased against Trump (as more than 60 percent of voters are), his testimony and his firing are already locked in by virtue of his memos and congressional testimony.
So what does matter? Pleas and indictments, and the raids (on Paul Manafort and Michael Cohen) that precede them. Beyond that the political noise is just that — noise. Remember that what we see from Mueller is the tip of the proverbial iceberg. Most of the special counsel’s work remains hidden from view, as it should be. The criminal justice system will run its course; the rest is largely for show.
Jennifer Rubin.
Jennifer Rubin writes the Right Turn blog for The Washington Post, offering reported opinion from a center perspective.