A new poll commissioned by The Salt Lake Tribune indicates Utahns will support Republican John McCain over Obama by a margin of 55 percent to 32 percent.
The phone survey of 625 registered voters from the state's 29 counties was conducted Oct. 23 to 25 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. out of Washington D.C. It has a margin of error of 4 percent.
"The national trend in favor of Barack Obama is spilling over into Utah - he's risen in state polls since September," said Michael Lyons, an associate political science professor at Utah State University.
Obama's 32 percent in the poll, with 9 percent still undecided, is a better showing than Democratic nominees John Kerry and Al Gore made in 2004 and 2000, respectively.
"It wouldn't surprise me to see him do better than those numbers indicate, but he likely won't even reach 40 percent here," Lyons said.
Lyons credited the state Democratic Party with being better organized than he's seen since he landed in Utah in 1980.
The Mason-Dixon poll also indicates that Republican Jason Chaffetz, who defeated 6-term Congressman Chris Cannon in the primary, will likely be headed to Washington. He is ahead of Democratic challenger Bennion Spencer by a 57 percent to 22 percent margin.
Utahns also will likely return Reps. Rob Bishop and Jim Matheson to Congress, and by big margins, according to the responses of 400 likely voters in each district.
Bishop, who seeks his fourth term in Utah's 1st District, was favored by 54 percent of likely voters compared to Democratic newcomer Morgan Bowen's 29 percent. Eleven percent were still up for grabs.
Matheson, the lone Democrat in Utah's congressional delegation seeks a fifth term representing the state's 2nd District. Poll numbers show him retaining that slot with 57 percent; 30 percent for GOP newcomer Bill Dew, and 8 percent in limbo.
To state Republican Party Chairman Stan Lockhart, the projected state wins for McCain, Bishop and Chaffetz simply reaffirm that most Utahns line up with conservative GOP values.
"It's more than just a vote for the status quo," Lockhart said. "Voters are evaluating the candidates - their stand on issues and their records - and voting for the party that best represents their ideals."
However, Lockhart knocked Matheson for not doing better against Dew.
"He's had four terms to solidify his base - and Dew is new," Lockhart said.
Other political scientists said there are no great surprises in the numbers.
"I'm a little surprised that both Matheson and Bishop are not in stronger positions" - given their incumbency, name recognition and cash-flush campaigns, the University of Utah's Matthew Burbank said.
"Matheson is a bit constrained," Burbank added, "because he's a Democrat in a Republican-leaning district."
For Kelly Patterson, of Brigham Young University, Bishop's numbers seemed lower than in past years..
"It's a conservative district and he usually wins re-election fairly easily with votes in the sixties," Patterson said.
Chaffetz, a newcomer to the 3rd district, is running stronger than the well-established Bishop, Burbank noted, adding that Bishop's EnergySolutions donations and stands might be raising some doubts.
The poll numbers seem to indicate that underdog Congressional candidates struggled to get their messages out.
For example, 69 percent had not heard of Bowen, 54 percent were clueless about Spencer and even though Dew poured half a million dollars into his battle to oust Matheson, his name failed to register with 37 percent of those polled.
Third party candidates siphoned off 2 to 6 percent in each of the races.
"What these numbers tell us is that Utah incumbents have high ID recognition," said Wayne Holland, chairman of the state Democratic Party.
While Utah votes for federal races will not signal any party switches this year, Holland expect the national election to be marked by change and Democratic gains.
"The President's party takes a hit during bad economic times," Holland said. "We've also got serious foreign policy problems as well."
