With public school teachers and tuition-tax-credit lobbyists each figuring more of their candidates are leading in races for the Legislature, getting to the truth comes down to a head count of legislative candidates - specifically in the Utah House.

That's what Parents for Choice in Education and the Utah Education Association were doing Wednesday: comparing who won and who lost in 15 contests for legislative seats. UEA political action director Vik Arnold figures at least four more public-school defenders will be elected to the House - where the issue will ultimately be decided. The tuition tax credit political strategists believe that November's election will mean a net gain of at least two lawmakers on their side, according to spokeswoman Nancy Pomeroy.

Counting other candidates who did not face primary races, it appears UEA may be better positioned to fortify their ranks come January.

In the House, one or two votes could come close to determining the future of any legislation that would give a tax credit to parents who send their children to private schools. In 2004, Democrats and moderate Republicans banded together twice to block floor debate of a tax credit bill. A year ago, similar legislation failed by six votes.

"The Senate has had the votes to pass a voucher bill for quite some time," says Arnold. "The real hurdle for [Parents for Choice] to get over is the one in the House. It's going to be a more difficult hurdle for them to get over now."

Issues at the Legislature come and go in cycles. Four years ago bankers and credit union executives were counting heads and shoveling money into legislative campaigns. The bank-credit union battle for legislative seats continues but the policy debate has shifted to Congress. This election year, Parents for Choice, a political action committee, is jostling for spots in the Legislature.

The PAC targeted seven races in Tuesday's primary and wrote checks to candidates for $64,000. They got mixed results: Bountiful Rep. Sheryl Allen defeated her challenger, Mark Jacobs, resoundingly. Jim Bird, a newcomer, edged out Taylorsville Rep. Peggy Wallace, a tax credit supporter, by 24 votes, a small enough margin it could be subject to a recount.

Parents for Choice now touts police officer Carl Wimmer as its star. Wimmer beat Dennis Sampson in the campaign for a southern Salt Lake County seat formerly held by tuition-tax credit foe Rep. David Hogue.

"We all know we can work harder and do better," says Pomeroy. "But we also believe there's a change in Utah and the way people feel about education and school choice."

On the other side of the debate, UEA's Arnold believes public school teachers will have at least a handful of new and returning friends in the Legislature. For example, he points to former House Majority Leader Kevin Garn and ex-Speaker Mel Brown, who are running as favorites in their respective races.

Perhaps more symbolic to the school teachers than those races was the defeat of Rep. Jim Ferrin, a charter school developer who had sponsored the tuition tax credit legislation year after year. Ferrin lost his campaign for a fourth term to Orem City Councilman Stephen Sandstrom, who designs public schools. Side issues dominated the campaign for the past few weeks - including Sandstrom's outstanding tax liens and Ferrin's use of a quote by LDS Church leaders in support of hate crimes legislation.

But Sandstrom believes the campaign came down to the original issue: public education.

"People want to make sure that traditional public schools are made whole and come first," says Sandstrom.

UEA contacted 1,100 public school employees who live in the district and urged them to vote. Sandstrom edged Ferrin by 99 votes.

Arnold hopes Sandstrom's victory gives Utah County lawmakers the courage to stand up for public schools. "That may provide a little more cover for Utah County incumbents," Arnold says. "It's not the kiss of death to be painted with the UEA candidate label."