Such projections present a challenge for the state's policymakers, who fear declining college enrollment may limit the state's economic growth. They are considering ways to encourage and prepare more students for college, and also pondering how the state will pay for such efforts.

University of Utah economist Pam Perlich studied college enrollment trends at the behest of Utah Higher Education Commissioner Richard Kendell.

She found relatively flat college enrollment growth starting in 2004 and expects that trend to continue until about 2018.

The last surge in population of Utahns ages 18 through 24 hit college in the 1990s, said Perlich, of the U.'s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

"That college wave is gone and their children are starting to push into Utah elementary schools," she said. "If all goes well, they will begin to hit higher ed 12 years later."

But the percentage of the total population enrolling in college already is declining, and that trend promises to continue because an increasing proportion of the state's population growth is made up of immigrants with low levels of education whose children traditionally have been less likely than non--immigrants to finish high school and attend college, she said.

Latinos, for example, make up an increasing percentage of the state's population. They have high rates of population growth compared with other racial and ethnic groups due to high immigration rates coupled with the fact that they tend to have more children than other groups, according to Perlich's study.

Because they lack education, they often work in lower-paying jobs, making it difficult for them to pay for college even if they are prepared, the study said.

Enrique Aleman, an assistant professor in the University of Utah's Department of Educational Leadership, is familiar with the trends. He's working with other educators to find ways to keep Latinos and other minorities in school and steer them toward college.

"There are a number of factors contributing to the dropout rates for Latinos, including large class size, lack of opportunity and poor access to advanced courses and teachers who put high expectations on them," he said. "Too often people look at these kids as having some kind of a deficit . . . It's a troubling and systemic problem."

Kendell wants all Utah students to succeed. That's why he has joined with public education officials to form an alliance to boost college preparation as a way to head off declining enrollment.

First, the alliance intends to emphasize more rigorous studies in grades nine through 12. Second, it will target the educational services minority students need to ensure they are successful in high school and ready for college.

"The goal is preparation, participation and completion," Kendell said. "We need all stakeholders to join us in this effort . . . It's good for students and good for the state."

He said higher ed officials will work to maintain public colleges' current enrollment of 140,000 students through recruitment and retention of students, including those returning to college because they never finished a degree. "We don't plan to lose any students."

Yet his counterparts acknowledge they have work to do. Deneece Huftalin, Salt Lake Community College's vice president for student services, calls the shrinking college participation rate "alarming." SLCC already is getting out to middle schools and telling students they "can and should" go to college, "so start planning now," she said.

Beginning this month, Salt Lake Community College will roll out a new advertising campaign aimed at individuals who may be thinking about returning to school for retraining or simply to improve their job skills. The ad campaign will be on played over radio stations and displayed on some Utah Transit Authority buses. Stan Plewe, vice president of college services at Dixie State College, said Wasatch Front population trends won't plague the growing St. George area of Washington County. He anticipates an enrollment surge in coming years due to Washington County's rapidly growing population. Dixie also is a draw for out-of state students because its tuition is less expensive than comparable colleges in Nevada and California.

"That's why we need more four-year programs," he said.

sykes@sltrib.com

Study highlights

Utah's native-born, college-age population is projected to be flat.

Immigrants and minorities will contribute significantly to population growth.

The college participation rate for 18- to 24 -year-olds is declining.

College enrollment varies by sex and place of birth. While overall educational attainment for Utah's population is high, a large percentage of women enroll but do not complete college.